Looking back on past Royals drafts

In our continued coverage of the 2015 draft, we'll look back at the previous drafts. It's really hard to grade a draft, possibly pointless or impossible, until a few years have passed at least. Teams work with only the information they have at the time and we judge those older decision based on current returns. Now that doesn't mean draft choices are infallible, but unless a team goes so far off the board with their first pick, most things generally fall in line with the consensus ranking. The first overall pick is usually a player ranked in the top five of the consensus rankings. For instance Carlos Correa went first overall to Houston in 2012 despite being a few spots behind the general consensus top player(s) Byron Buxton/Mike Zunino/Mark Appel. The Astros of course took Correa with the intent to sign him below slot and use the money elsewhere on Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz. The Royals did something similar in 2013, drafting Hunter Dozier (then more of a 15-25ish overall pick) to use the savings on Sean Manaea (who at one point was in conversation to go 1.1).

I'm going to free ball this, but there stands to reason there should probably be some concise and systematic way to grade classes. Maybe it's number of top 10 guys? Maybe it's the number of true potential MLB players on some level? I'm going to take both into consideration, but I'm not going to get as formal as creating a specific grading system.

I can think of a baseline for a F though: the 2011 Rays class. In all their first 10 round picks, and they had plenty of them due to the old compensation system, other than Mikie Mahtook, there's basically nobody who is on the prospect radar or has impact potential.

Thier first overall pick, Taylor Guerrieri, is still on some minds given his potential, but he has drug suspensions, rehab, Tommy John and other off field issues that throw up some of the biggest red flags.

Blake Snell has taken a step forward and may be the saving grace of this class after 5 years in the minors; just now reaching AA.

Everyone else is some matter of org fodder or out of the system. They had 20 picks in the first 10 rounds, including 10 in the first or supplemental first round, but came out unsuccessful. Again...this is easier to grade in hindsight. In fact, this class was graded as an A+ at the time.

Tampa Bay Rays | Key Picks: Taylor Guerrieri, Mikie Mahtook, Jake Hager, Brandon Martin, Tyler Goeddel, Jeff Ames, Blake Snell, Kes Carter, Grayson Garvin, James Harris, Granden Goetzman, Lenny Linsky, Johnny Eierman

Yes, the Rays drafted all of these players. And, they got every one of them within the top 120 picks. The thing to remember about the MLB Draft is that it's about getting as many bodies into the farm system as possible. Tampa Bay certainly got quantity here. They picked a diverse group, from polished college arms like Grayson Garvin, to high upside prep pitchers in Taylor Guerrieri, to toolsy position players like Johnny Eierman. You can't do better than this in a draft.

Grade: A+

2014

Grade - N/A

Not even going to try to grade this draft yet. It's nice that it's already paid off with Finnegan in some manner, but all the other players are in the low minors. I'm a big proponent of Ryan O'Hearn and Scott Blewett (who I think I placed a slot or two too low on my top 30).

There isn't a ton on top talent from this draft (as least as far as we can tell), but the top 4-5 picks are certainly intriguing and capable of some big league impact.

2013

Grade: N/A

Still too soon to grade. Two of the Royals top 10 prospects are from this draft and Cody Reed may be knocking on the door for the 10th spot on the list.

The later round finds could be great values, even if they don't profile as high-impact players.

2012

Grade: D+

Basically everybody here is either a non-prospect or guys who are fringe prospects. Kyle Zimmer holds the entire class up and even he's a question mark. Say what you will about Zimmer, but he's probably the only player in this class that could have some impact on the Royals roster.

2011

Grade: D+/C-

At first, I thought this class was worse than 2012, but the back end saves it.  Binford is a legit top 10 prospect for the Royals and Gore has at least reached the MLB and profile to play in the majors at some level (even as a 4th outfielder in September). Patton became Frasor, who has been a good MLB reliever, and Junis' stock has been up a bit.

The top of this draft is worrisome. Four of the top seven are no longer in the system, Brickhouse had TJS but is kind of coming back, and Gallagher is a long shot to make the majors. That's without even mentioning Bubba Starling who we are all well aware of.

If Starling never actually gets anywhere near to his ceiling and flames out, it might be on the backs of Binford/Brickhouse/Gore to give some redemption to this class.

2010

Grade: D+

Colon has some value, and arguably might be the best pick from 2010, 2011, and 2012 at this point (which maybe says it all for those classes).

There's the AAAA or fringey prospects with Eibner, Merrifield, and Mariot and trade pieces in Chapman/Adams.

As mentioned, it's really hard to grade a draft in the first year or two, but the early 10's drafts we have some measure of and the results haven't been great.

The top few picks of 2013/2014 seem to be off to better starts than 2010/2011/2012, but of course that could change within a few months or a year.