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Some Royals draft scenarios

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Below are just some scenarios for the Royals draft based on preferred risk level. It's all obviously dependent on the players falling to them in those slots, and I'm trying to stay reasonable. Dansby Swanson would be awesome a pick #21, but that ain't happening...

For a refresher on some content:

Here's Dayton Moore's first round history

My big draft board for 2015

Mock Draft Roundup Pt 1

What should the Royals draft strategy be?

Some potential picks for Royals

Draft names to know

Conservative

21. Kevin Newman - SS Arizona

33. Alex Young - LHP RP/SP TCU

Newman is one of the best college defenders in the draft and is sure to stick at the position in the majors. The bat might be light in power, but he should hit for average. It's not an all-star profile, but a floor one who should see major league innings at a premier position.

Alex Young is the safer play college arm. He's got low mileage as he was moved to the TCU rotation two years left. He doesn't have an overpowering fastball, but instead is a lefty with three good pitches (FB/Curve/Change).

The above package isn't going to win any lotteries likely, but instead is like your dividend paying bond fund.

Straight-laced/Moderate

21. Cornelius Randolph - 3B/SS GA HS

33. DJ Stewart - LF/1B Florida State

Randolph may not be around at 21 (the Yankees like him at 16) but other than Brady Aiken, he's probably next on my realistic board for the Royals to get. Randolph is a projectable middle infield prep bat who'll move to third base eventually if not immediately. He's not a huge risk per say, but he's a prep player so he's clearly not as polished and doesn't have a high floor like a college bat.

DJ Stewart is that higher floor hedge to Randolph. DJ isn't a lock to hit in the major leagues, but he's got a similar profile to Kyle Schwarber (though less raw power). If a team is looking for someone who's closer to the majors (2 years away) and has a bat that could potentially be middle order, Stewart is a target. He'll either be a LF or 1B in pro ball, but it's always gonna be a bat first profile.

Aggressive

21. Aiken - LHP SP IMG Academy, FL

33. Alex Young - LHP SP/RP TCU

33. Richie Martin - SS Florida

33. David Hill - RHP San Diego

If Aiken is still on the board for the Royals at 21 then I'd absolutely grab him. He's my #1 choice for them and it seems like he'll be there.

The medicals are murky on Aiken, but there hasn't been any news that there is a sure fire issue. Of course, only select teams have seen the medicals (they had to ask Aiken's permission first) but some execs have been quoted as being fine with what they saw. There's obviously still risk there, he just underwent Tommy John Surgery, but if you assume he bounces back from that fine (never a guarantee) he could be a steal here.

The Royals would then back the risk of the Aiken pick with a higher floor college player. Young was profiled above, but the other two are college guys with different risk preferences.

Martin is like Newman who'll likely stay at SS, but hit for little to some power. He has a line drive swing that he puts across the outfield and chiefly tries to get on base.

Hill is likely a reliever at the big league level as he's been known to be wildly effective. At best case he's a 4/5th starter, but his command may lead him to the bullpen.

A Little More Aggressive

21. Nick Plummer - OF Brother Rice HS, MI

33. Nathan Kirby - LHP Virginia

I like Nick Plummer a lot, and he's certainly in consideration for the 21st pick over anybody, including Aiken. Plummer broke out at the East Coast Pro games last summer and has hit ever since. He comes from one of the most extreme coldweather states (Michigan) as far as scouting goes. He features a good bat in centerfield with average to slightly better power. He's got good speed and is fringey defensively there with his smaller, but stocked, frame.

Kirby has been mired  inconsistency and injuries issues this spring. When on he's got a plus fastball and perhaps the best changeup in the class. When he's off, he can't command his pitches or is not on the mound at all. Kirby suffered a lat injury this year and has missed significant time down the stretch.

In this scenario, the Royals bank on the upside of Plummer (who may not stay in center and carries the usual prep player risk) and Kirby (who's inconsistent and has been injured).

Even More Aggressive

21. Aiken - LHP IMG Academy, FL

33. Nathan Kirby - LHP Virgina

The difference in this package than the one above it is a higher upside/lower floor in Aiken.

Ultra Aggressive

21. Aiken

33. Mike Matuella

This is fully banking on two pitchers returning to full form from Tommy John surgery.

Matuella was once considered at 1.1 (and of course Aiken was taken at 1.1) before going under the knife. Before his elbow injury, Matuella was diagnosed with a degenerative back injury that he'll forever have to deal with. Also, his injuries have provided him with a small track record, preventing him from throwing no more than 60 innings consecutively.

Matuella has an elite fastball, a plus curveball, and average changeup with excellent command. He has the stuff to go first overall, but the back issues and TJS make him a complete mystery in the draft. A team could snag him early or he could drop to someone with a comp pick or in the 2nd round. If he bounces back to peak, he's the steal of the draft.