/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46665666/GettyImages-452566476.0.jpg)
On Sunday, All-Star starters will be revealed on the Esurance All-Star Selection Show at 6:30 CT on ESPN, where the media will go into outrage at the possible selection of up to five or six Royals All-Star starters. The next day, at 6 CT on ESPN, they reveal the reserves, because of course it has to be a two-day event!
I thought I'd survey the landscape and try to project the All-Stars, to give us an idea of what the Royals are up against if they don't get voted in. Here are the ground rules - 34 man rosters with the final spot to be determined by fans. Each team must have a rep. Fans vote in the starters. Here's how I think the two squads will end up looking like next week.
American League Starters | AVG | OBA | SLG | HR | RBI | fWAR | |
C | Salvador Perez, Kansas City | .263 | .275 | .452 | 13 | 34 | 1.2 |
1B | Miguel Cabrera, Detroit | .345 | .453 | .575 | 15 | 53 | 3.5 |
2B | Jose Altuve, Houston | .298 | .342 | .421 | 7 | 33 | 2.1 |
SS | Alcides Escobar, Kansas City | .273 | .307 | .356 | 2 | 28 | 1.2 |
3B | Josh Donaldson, Toronto | .300 | .358 | .541 | 19 | 52 | 4.4 |
OF | Mike Trout, Los Angeles | .303 | .393 | .590 | 21 | 44 | 4.5 |
OF | Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City | .298 | .353 | .453 | 6 | 33 | 3.2 |
OF | Alex Gordon, Kansas City | .265 | .384 | .432 | 9 | 32 | 2.5 |
DH | Nelson Cruz, Seattle | .303 | .367 | .552 | 20 | 48 | 1.8 |
I think a late push gets Altuve past Omar Infante, despite the efforts of Royals fans and statistically-challenged fans elsewhere. Nelson Cruz holds of Kendrys Morales, and the rest of the starters seems to have a good grip on their position. Four Royals starters would be a franchise record.
AL Reserves | AVG | OBA | SLG | HR | RBI | fWAR | |
C | Stephen Vogt, Oakland | .290 | .382 | .508 | 13 | 53 | 2.6 |
C | Russell Martin, Toronto | .262 | .353 | .489 | 12 | 38 | 2.9 |
1B | Albert Pujols, Los Angeles | .263 | .334 | .554 | 24 | 49 | 2.2 |
2B | Brian Dozier, Minnesota | .265 | .336 | .523 | 16 | 40 | 2.9 |
2B | Jason Kipnis, Cleveland | .347 | .420 | .514 | 6 | 35 | 4.7 |
SS | Jose Iglesias, Detroit | .324 | .378 | .387 | 1 | 11 | 2.0 |
SS | Xander Bogaerts, Boston | .297 | .331 | .410 | 3 | 35 | 2.0 |
3B | Manny Machado, Baltimore | .302 | .357 | .523 | 16 | 44 | 3.6 |
3B | Mike Moustakas, Kansas City | .308 | .362 | .448 | 7 | 31 | 2.3 |
OF | Jose Bautista, Toronto | .246 | .391 | .512 | 16 | 55 | 2.8 |
OF | Brett Gardner, New York | .304 | .373 | .495 | 9 | 39 | 2.7 |
OF | Adam Jones, Baltimore | .292 | .339 | .470 | 10 | 37 | 2.3 |
OF | J.D. Martinez, Detroit | .281 | .334 | .545 | 21 | 51 | 2.6 |
OF | George Springer, Houston | .264 | .365 | .457 | 13 | 29 | 2.6 |
DH | Prince Fielder, Texas | .345 | .414 | .523 | 12 | 49 | 1.8 |
There only looks like room for one Boston rep on my roster, so its either Bogaerts or outfielder Mookie Betts. At first base you could make a case for bringing another first baseman in either Mark Teixeira or Eric Hosmer, but with Fielder being able to play first base, my guess is Ned Yost will opt instead for another third baseman, giving Mike Moustakas the nod.
American League Pitchers | W | L | ERA | FIP | SV | K/9 | fWAR |
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay | 9 | 5 | 2.31 | 2.46 | 0 | 11.0 | 3.2 |
Dellin Betances, New York | 4 | 1 | 1.13 | 1.37 | 7 | 14.5 | 1.8 |
Zach Britton, Baltimore | 0 | 0 | 1.82 | 1.70 | 23 | 10.6 | 1.1 |
Wade Davis, Kansas City | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1.85 | 9 | 10.3 | 1.1 |
Sonny Gray, Oakland | 9 | 3 | 2.09 | 2.67 | 0 | 8.1 | 3.0 |
Felix Hernandez, Seattle | 10 | 4 | 3.05 | 3.42 | 0 | 8.7 | 1.7 |
Dallas Keuchel, Houston | 10 | 3 | 2.03 | 2.92 | 0 | 7.4 | 2.9 |
Andrew Miller, New York | 0 | 1 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 17 | 14.7 | 0.9 |
Glen Perkins, Minnesota | 0 | 1 | 1.35 | 2.51 | 26 | 8.1 | 0.9 |
David Price, Detroit | 7 | 2 | 2.62 | 2.87 | 0 | 8.2 | 2.8 |
Chris Sale, Chicago | 6 | 4 | 2.87 | 2.09 | 0 | 12.3 | 3.7 |
A lot of these guys could end up replaced if they pitch the weekend before the All-Star Game. Candidates to replace them would include Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Roberto Osuna, and perhaps even Chris Young.
Final Five Vote | AVG | OBA | SLG | HR | RBI | fWAR | |
OF | Mookie Betts, Boston | .277 | .328 | .455 | 9 | 37 | 2.5 |
OF | Yoenis Cespedes, Detroit | .289 | .319 | .475 | 10 | 43 | 2.3 |
OF | Josh Reddick, Oakland | .287 | .348 | .469 | 11 | 49 | 2.1 |
DH | Alex Rodriguez, New York | .280 | .381 | .506 | 15 | 45 | 1.9 |
Final Five Vote | W | L | ERA | FIP | SV | K/9 | fWAR | |
P | David Robertson, Chicago | 4 | 2 | 2.76 | 2.26 | 16 | 12.4 | 1.1 |
I think the hitters are deeper than the pitchers, so there are more bats here. If you believe in conspiracies, A-Rod won't be on this ballot, but it would be glorious if he won.
National League Starters | AVG | OBA | SLG | HR | RBI | fWAR | |
C | Buster Posey, San Francisco | .304 | .377 | .496 | 13 | 56 | 3.1 |
1B | Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona | .352 | .468 | .630 | 20 | 65 | 4.5 |
2B | Dee Gordon, Miami | .345 | .364 | .427 | 1 | 21 | 2.9 |
SS | Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis | .301 | .357 | .479 | 11 | 41 | 1.9 |
3B | Todd Frazier, Cincinnati | .283 | .344 | .606 | 25 | 54 | 4.2 |
OF | Bryce Harper, Washington | .339 | .461 | .705 | 24 | 58 | 5.0 |
OF | Giancarlo Stanton, Miami-i | .265 | .346 | .606 | 27 | 67 | 3.7 |
OF | Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh | .295 | .386 | .482 | 9 | 47 | 2.8 |
i-injured
Matt Carpenter leads voting at third despite All-Star hometown favorite Todd Frazier having a dominant season. Matt Holliday is currently third among outfielders, despite being out with an injury (why are Cardinals fans making a mockery of the All-Star Game?). Hopefully Frazier and Andrew McCutchen can have a late push to get in as starters.
National League Reserves | AVG | OBA | SLG | HR | RBI | fWAR | |
C | Yadier Molina, St. Louis | .286 | .330 | .366 | 2 | 27 | 1.3 |
C | Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles | .269 | .380 | .497 | 12 | 31 | 2.0 |
1B | Freddie Freeman, Atlanta | .299 | .367 | .520 | 12 | 41 | 2.2 |
1B | Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles | .293 | .368 | .507 | 13 | 48 | 2.3 |
1B | Anthony Rizzo, Chicago | .297 | .405 | .552 | 15 | 45 | 3.2 |
1B | Joey Votto, Cincinnati | .282 | .396 | .495 | 14 | 39 | 2.5 |
2B | Joe Panik, San Francisco | .316 | .384 | .463 | 6 | 30 | 3.2 |
2B | Kolton Wong, St. Louis | .287 | .345 | .457 | 9 | 36 | 2.4 |
SS | Brandon Crawford, San Francisco | .270 | .346 | .474 | 11 | 47 | 2.9 |
3B | Nolan Arenado, Colorado | .287 | .319 | .611 | 24 | 68 | 3.3 |
3B | Kris Bryant, Chicago | .274 | .378 | .460 | 10 | 43 | 2.9 |
OF | Justin Upton, San Diego | .263 | .345 | .447 | 14 | 46 | 1.9 |
OF | Joc Pederson, Los Angeles | .243 | .383 | .525 | 20 | 38 | 3.6 |
OF | A.J. Pollock, Arizona | .301 | .347 | .464 | 10 | 36 | 3.3 |
OF | Ryan Braun, Milwaukee | .271 | .338 | .493 | 15 | 53 | 1.2 |
Yadier Molina gets in on his reputation, Francisco Cervelli of the Pirates or Derek Norris of the Padres has a better case. Third base is extremely deep, leaving guys like Matt Carpenter and Justin Turner to the fan vote.
National League Pitchers | W | L | ERA | FIP | SV | K/9 | fWAR |
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco | 8 | 4 | 2.99 | 3.04 | 0 | 9.1 | 2.3 |
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh | 7 | 3 | 2.05 | 2.57 | 0 | 7.7 | 2.7 |
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati | 3 | 3 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 16 | 15.7 | 1.3 |
Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh | 11 | 3 | 2.20 | 2.64 | 0 | 9.5 | 2.2 |
Jacob deGrom, New York | 8 | 6 | 2.30 | 2.76 | 0 | 8.7 | 2.7 |
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles | 6 | 2 | 1.58 | 2.83 | 0 | 7.8 | 2.6 |
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia | 1 | 1 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 14 | 9.7 | 0.6 |
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 2.37 | 23 | 9.7 | 1.0 |
Max Scherzer, Washington | 9 | 6 | 1.82 | 1.94 | 0 | 10.5 | 4.7 |
Drew Storen, Washington | 1 | 0 | 2.10 | 1.92 | 23 | 10.8 | 1.0 |
Michael Wacha, St. Louis | 10 | 3 | 2.77 | 3.14 | 0 | 7.0 | 1.9 |
There will be stat guys calling Clayton Kershaw a snub. His 5-6 record and 3.20 ERA won't wow the old school baseball guys, but his 2.9 fWAR is the 6th best among all pitchers.
Final Five Vote | AVG | OBA | SLG | HR | RBI | fWAR | |
3B | Matt Carpenter, St. Louis | .278 | .379 | .455 | 8 | 38 | 2.3 |
3B | Justin Turner, Los Angeles | .314 | .388 | .565 | 11 | 37 | 3.0 |
Final Five Vote | W | L | ERA | FIP | SV | K/9 | fWAR | |
P | Jake Arrieta, Chicago | 8 | 5 | 2.80 | 2.73 | 0 | 9.3 | 2.8 |
P | Jason Grilli, Atlanta | 3 | 3 | 2.93 | 2.37 | 22 | 11.5 | 0.9 |
P | Shelby Miller, Atlanta | 5 | 4 | 2.20 | 3.18 | 0 | 7.0 | 1.9 |
Stuff the ballot, Cardinals fans!
So ultimately I have Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Gordon starting, with Wade Davis and Mike Moustakas as reserves. I think its possible Eric Hosmer could be on the roster or in the Final Five, but he may bow out due to his hand injury anyway.
What do you think? Who did I snub? Who gets in for the Royals? Is this list a disgrace to baseball?