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Projecting the All-Star teams

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Its easy - 25 Royals.

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

On Sunday, All-Star starters will be revealed on the Esurance All-Star Selection Show at 6:30 CT on ESPN, where the media will go into outrage at the possible selection of up to five or six Royals All-Star starters. The next day, at 6 CT on ESPN, they reveal the reserves, because of course it has to be a two-day event!

I thought I'd survey the landscape and try to project the All-Stars, to give us an idea of what the Royals are up against if they don't get voted in. Here are the ground rules - 34 man rosters with the final spot to be determined by fans. Each team must have a rep. Fans vote in the starters. Here's how I think the two squads will end up looking like next week.

American League Starters AVG OBA SLG HR RBI fWAR
C Salvador Perez, Kansas City .263 .275 .452 13 34 1.2
1B Miguel Cabrera, Detroit .345 .453 .575 15 53 3.5
2B Jose Altuve, Houston .298 .342 .421 7 33 2.1
SS Alcides Escobar, Kansas City .273 .307 .356 2 28 1.2
3B Josh Donaldson, Toronto .300 .358 .541 19 52 4.4
OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles .303 .393 .590 21 44 4.5
OF Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City .298 .353 .453 6 33 3.2
OF Alex Gordon, Kansas City .265 .384 .432 9 32 2.5
DH Nelson Cruz, Seattle .303 .367 .552 20 48 1.8

I think a late push gets Altuve past Omar Infante, despite the efforts of Royals fans and statistically-challenged fans elsewhere. Nelson Cruz holds of Kendrys Morales, and the rest of the starters seems to have a good grip on their position. Four Royals starters would be a franchise record.

AL Reserves AVG OBA SLG HR RBI fWAR
C Stephen Vogt, Oakland .290 .382 .508 13 53 2.6
C Russell Martin, Toronto .262 .353 .489 12 38 2.9
1B Albert Pujols, Los Angeles .263 .334 .554 24 49 2.2
2B Brian Dozier, Minnesota .265 .336 .523 16 40 2.9
2B Jason Kipnis, Cleveland .347 .420 .514 6 35 4.7
SS Jose Iglesias, Detroit .324 .378 .387 1 11 2.0
SS Xander Bogaerts, Boston .297 .331 .410 3 35 2.0
3B Manny Machado, Baltimore .302 .357 .523 16 44 3.6
3B Mike Moustakas, Kansas City .308 .362 .448 7 31 2.3
OF Jose Bautista, Toronto .246 .391 .512 16 55 2.8
OF Brett Gardner, New York .304 .373 .495 9 39 2.7
OF Adam Jones, Baltimore .292 .339 .470 10 37 2.3
OF J.D. Martinez, Detroit .281 .334 .545 21 51 2.6
OF George Springer, Houston .264 .365 .457 13 29 2.6
DH Prince Fielder, Texas .345 .414 .523 12 49 1.8

There only looks like room for one Boston rep on my roster, so its either Bogaerts or outfielder Mookie Betts. At first base you could make a case for bringing another first baseman in either Mark Teixeira or Eric Hosmer, but with Fielder being able to play first base, my guess is Ned Yost will opt instead for another third baseman, giving Mike Moustakas the nod.

American League Pitchers W L ERA FIP SV K/9 fWAR
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay 9 5 2.31 2.46 0 11.0 3.2
Dellin Betances, New York 4 1 1.13 1.37 7 14.5 1.8
Zach Britton, Baltimore 0 0 1.82 1.70 23 10.6 1.1
Wade Davis, Kansas City 3 1 0.26 1.85 9 10.3 1.1
Sonny Gray, Oakland 9 3 2.09 2.67 0 8.1 3.0
Felix Hernandez, Seattle 10 4 3.05 3.42 0 8.7 1.7
Dallas Keuchel, Houston 10 3 2.03 2.92 0 7.4 2.9
Andrew Miller, New York 0 1 1.03 1.91 17 14.7 0.9
Glen Perkins, Minnesota 0 1 1.35 2.51 26 8.1 0.9
David Price, Detroit 7 2 2.62 2.87 0 8.2 2.8
Chris Sale, Chicago 6 4 2.87 2.09 0 12.3 3.7

A lot of these guys could end up replaced if they pitch the weekend before the All-Star Game. Candidates to replace them would include Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Roberto Osuna, and perhaps even Chris Young.

Final Five Vote AVG OBA SLG HR RBI fWAR
OF Mookie Betts, Boston .277 .328 .455 9 37 2.5
OF Yoenis Cespedes, Detroit .289 .319 .475 10 43 2.3
OF Josh Reddick, Oakland .287 .348 .469 11 49 2.1
DH Alex Rodriguez, New York .280 .381 .506 15 45 1.9
Final Five Vote W L ERA FIP SV K/9 fWAR
P David Robertson, Chicago 4 2 2.76 2.26 16 12.4 1.1

I think the hitters are deeper than the pitchers, so there are more bats here. If you believe in conspiracies, A-Rod won't be on this ballot, but it would be glorious if he won.

National League Starters AVG OBA SLG HR RBI fWAR
C Buster Posey, San Francisco .304 .377 .496 13 56 3.1
1B Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona .352 .468 .630 20 65 4.5
2B Dee Gordon, Miami .345 .364 .427 1 21 2.9
SS Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis .301 .357 .479 11 41 1.9
3B Todd Frazier, Cincinnati .283 .344 .606 25 54 4.2
OF Bryce Harper, Washington .339 .461 .705 24 58 5.0
OF Giancarlo Stanton, Miami-i .265 .346 .606 27 67 3.7
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh .295 .386 .482 9 47 2.8

i-injured

Matt Carpenter leads voting at third despite All-Star hometown favorite Todd Frazier having a dominant season. Matt Holliday is currently third among outfielders, despite being out with an injury (why are Cardinals fans making a mockery of the All-Star Game?). Hopefully Frazier and Andrew McCutchen can have a late push to get in as starters.

National League Reserves AVG OBA SLG HR RBI fWAR
C Yadier Molina, St. Louis .286 .330 .366 2 27 1.3
C Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles .269 .380 .497 12 31 2.0
1B Freddie Freeman, Atlanta .299 .367 .520 12 41 2.2
1B Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles .293 .368 .507 13 48 2.3
1B Anthony Rizzo, Chicago .297 .405 .552 15 45 3.2
1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati .282 .396 .495 14 39 2.5
2B Joe Panik, San Francisco .316 .384 .463 6 30 3.2
2B Kolton Wong, St. Louis .287 .345 .457 9 36 2.4
SS Brandon Crawford, San Francisco .270 .346 .474 11 47 2.9
3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado .287 .319 .611 24 68 3.3
3B Kris Bryant, Chicago .274 .378 .460 10 43 2.9
OF Justin Upton, San Diego .263 .345 .447 14 46 1.9
OF Joc Pederson, Los Angeles .243 .383 .525 20 38 3.6
OF A.J. Pollock, Arizona .301 .347 .464 10 36 3.3
OF Ryan Braun, Milwaukee .271 .338 .493 15 53 1.2

Yadier Molina gets in on his reputation, Francisco Cervelli of the Pirates or Derek Norris of the Padres has a better case. Third base is extremely deep, leaving guys like Matt Carpenter and Justin Turner to the fan vote.

National League Pitchers W L ERA FIP SV K/9 fWAR
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco 8 4 2.99 3.04 0 9.1 2.3
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh 7 3 2.05 2.57 0 7.7 2.7
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati 3 3 1.83 1.80 16 15.7 1.3
Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh 11 3 2.20 2.64 0 9.5 2.2
Jacob deGrom, New York 8 6 2.30 2.76 0 8.7 2.7
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles 6 2 1.58 2.83 0 7.8 2.6
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia 1 1 1.71 2.71 14 9.7 0.6
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis 1 0 0.50 2.37 23 9.7 1.0
Max Scherzer, Washington 9 6 1.82 1.94 0 10.5 4.7
Drew Storen, Washington 1 0 2.10 1.92 23 10.8 1.0
Michael Wacha, St. Louis 10 3 2.77 3.14 0 7.0 1.9

There will be stat guys calling Clayton Kershaw a snub. His 5-6 record and 3.20 ERA won't wow the old school baseball guys, but his 2.9 fWAR is the 6th best among all pitchers.

Final Five Vote AVG OBA SLG HR RBI fWAR
3B Matt Carpenter, St. Louis .278 .379 .455 8 38 2.3
3B Justin Turner, Los Angeles .314 .388 .565 11 37 3.0
Final Five Vote W L ERA FIP SV K/9 fWAR
P Jake Arrieta, Chicago 8 5 2.80 2.73 0 9.3 2.8
P Jason Grilli, Atlanta 3 3 2.93 2.37 22 11.5 0.9
P Shelby Miller, Atlanta 5 4 2.20 3.18 0 7.0 1.9

Stuff the ballot, Cardinals fans!

So ultimately I have Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Gordon starting, with Wade Davis and Mike Moustakas as reserves. I think its possible Eric Hosmer could be on the roster or in the Final Five, but he may bow out due to his hand injury anyway.

What do you think? Who did I snub? Who gets in for the Royals? Is this list a disgrace to baseball?