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2016 Season Preview: Dillon Gee

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He is on the 40 man roster now. Can he make a difference?

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals added Dillon Gee to the 40-man roster this week, and it becomes more likely he joins the Royals when they break north at the end of camp. The former Mets right-hander has been regarded by many analysts as one of the best minor-league signees this winter. While he is out of options, that did not stop the Mets from demoing him to the minor leagues after a poor start last year. The 29 year-old has 110 career starts under his belt, giving the Royals an experienced option to consider for the #5 spot.

ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 WAR
2015 season 5.90 4.42 39.2 5.7 2.5 0.3
2016 PECOTA projection 3.87 4.33 40.2 6.4 2.9 0.2*
2016 Steamer projection 4.28 4.33 1.0 6.4 2.3 0.0
2016 ZIPS projection 4.60 4.44 144.2 5.7 2.2 1.0

*-note PECOTA does not project WAR, it projects WARP, which is similar in concept but uses a different formula

Gee differentiates himself from his staff competitors by giving them a different look with a career ground ball rate of 46%. Last year he was plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness, spending the majority of the season in AAA and he is a few years removed from being an effective back end starter.  His bugaboo has always been a lousy fastball.

Pitch Type Count AB K BB HBP HR BAA SLG ISO BABIP
Fourseam 2664 533 104 64 13 23 .281 .480 .199 .313
Sinker 3124 852 69 83 7 22 .303 .451 .148 .310

Without a decent fastball, it is hard to see much upside in Gee. Corey Kluber is the rare breed of a bad fastball guy that is elite. Unfortunately, Gee doesn’t have Kluber’s pin point command or elite secondary pitches, but he does have a really nice changeup with two inches more fade and drop than your typical run of the mill off speed pitch. His slider is useable, but nothing to write home to mom about.

His release points were all over the place last year, likely due in large part to his groin injury. In 2014, he had some rough patches with consistency as well. I am a little more tepid than most with the signing, but what does the club have to lose on a minor-league deal? Perhaps, pitching coach Dave Eiland will work his voodoo magic once again.

What do you expect out of Dillon Gee in 2016?