Detroit Tigers series preview: a chance to play spoiler

What feels like three years ago now, Joakim Soria gave up a walk off home run to Jarrod Saltalamacchia on a moonshot over the RF wall in Comerica Park. The Royals had something like 14 walk off losses since 2014 and seven of them came at Comerica Park.

It's hard to say a series win was backbreaking or a disappointment but one of the all time lowlights of my Royals fandom was a September weekend series in 2006. The Royals were far, far out of competition (60-100 record) but they were visiting the Tigers who were in the race for the #1 seed in the playoffs (95-65) and winning the AL Central. The Royals have nothing to win for...in fact they actually had an incentive to lose: the worst record in baseball and the #1 pick. They were fighting the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays for that glorious spot and all they had to do was not win one game. Athletes don't think this way of course and every time they step out on the field they want to win.

The 2006 Royals won the Friday opener in extra innings. The Tigers jumped on Runelvys Hernandez early for five runs in the first three innings before the Royals offense came alive scoring:

2 in the fifth

1 in the 7th

1 in th 8th

1 in the 9th to tie the game on a Shane Costa single

The game would go to extras and the Royals would score four runs in the 11th on three home runs (Paul Phillips, Emil Brown, and Jeff Keppinger). The Tigers would get two of their own in the bottom of the 11th but it wasn't enough as Joel Peralta got Ivan Rodriguez to ground into a double play to end the game.

Saturday's game would see the Royals start the game with this series of events:

Double

Single

Triple

HR

Flyball

Single

Single

Walk

Wild Pitch

Strikeout

Single

Walk

Strikeout

The Royals had batted around in the first, scoring seven runs off Zach Miner. Detroit would slash away at the lead with sporadic runs throughout the game but couldn't overcome the first inning deficit, losing 9-6.

The Sunday finale was another high scoring affair and another extra inning win. The Tigers jumped to a 6-0 lead before KC got the lead down to 7-4 before an 8th inning explosion saw the Royals score four runs and take an 8-7 lead. Matt Stairs (former Royal) would hit the tying home run off of Scott Dohmann (who I literally just had to look up to remember who that is). In the 12th an Esteban German single and bases loaded walk by Emil Brown would put the Royals up by two. Jimmy Gobble would close of the bottom of the 12th scoreless and with that, the Royals had swept the Tigers at home.

Two extra innings games and 28 runs scored later, the Royals had swept Detroit at home. The Rays would lose all their final weekend games to finish at 61-101...one win worse than the Royals. The Tigers would finish at 95-65...one win less than the Twins who clinched the division.

Nine months later in the June draft the Rays would take college star David Price first overall while the Royals decided between Mike Moustakas or Josh Vitters. They made the right selection of the two but David Price would go on to be worth 32 fWAR under team control while Moustakas has been worth 10.

They didn't even have to be swept either. They finished worse than the Rays in 2005 so they held the #1 overall pick tie breaker, so even if they lost 2 of 3 they would have still had the first pick. Instead they won all three.

The 2016 Royals have the same chance at a spoiler this weekend, though they enter with not so dire of circumstances as the 2006 team ten years later. The Tigers have won four straight and are far away from the team that was nearly .500 back in June. They are playing for a shot of one of the two AL Wild Cards.

Game one: Friday, 6:10 PM CDT - Danny Duffy vs Michael Fulmer

Danny Duffy	-	-	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA/Pit	GSc
2016	-	-	169.2	148	61	60	36	181	23	3.18	-
Last 2 GS	-	-	45.1	48	22	21	11	43	9	4.17	52
9/18/2016	CHW	W	7	8	3	3	2	8	1	110	55
9/13/2016	OAK	ND	7.1	3	3	3	2	6	2	98	64
Last 2 v.DET	-	-	31.2	27	13	13	10	26	6	3.69	55
9/2/2016	DET	ND	5.2	9	4	4	1	8	1	100	42
8/16/2016	@DET	W	7.2	3	1	1	2	5	1	103	72

Michael Fulmer	-	-	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA/Pit	GSc
2016	-	-	148.2	122	53	50	39	120	16	3.03	-
Last 2 GS	-	-	44.2	41	22	22	8	32	6	4.43	53
9/16/2016	@CLE	L	5	7	6	6	3	3	1	100	29
9/9/2016	BAL	ND	7	3	2	2	1	5	1	103	67
Last 2 v.KCR	-	-	19.2	18	6	6	6	14	2	2.75	57
9/3/2016	@KCR	L	6	7	3	3	1	4	1	87	49
7/17/2016	KCR	ND	8	6	2	2	1	5	0	95	66

If BBWAA writers weren't so against selecting a pitcher for Rookie of the Year, Fulmer would stand a greater chance to win the award.

Game two: Saturday, 12:05 PM CDT - Yordano Ventura vs Daniel Norris

Name	W	L	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	fWAR
Yordano Ventura	11	11	30	30	176	6.65	3.73	1.18	13.40%	4.35	4.71	1.2
Daniel Norris	3	2	12	11	57	9	2.84	1.26	12.10%	3.63	3.9	0.9

Game three: Sunday, 12:10 PM CDT - Edinson Volquez vs Matt Boyd

Name	W	L	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	fWAR
Edinson Volquez	10	11	32	32	181.2	6.59	3.37	1.09	0.316	13.20%	5.25	4.46	1.6
Matt Boyd	6	4	19	17	97.1	7.58	2.68	1.48	0.275	12.30%	4.16	4.6	1

The Batsmen (min. 200 PA)

Name	PA	HR	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
Ian Kinsler	638	26	78	14	6.30%	16.90%	0.192	0.299	0.277	0.335	0.469	116	2.6	14.6	12.7	5
Miguel Cabrera	639	34	94	0	11.00%	16.70%	0.239	0.325	0.307	0.385	0.546	146	-8.6	26.7	-7.3	4.2
J.D. Martinez	478	21	62	1	9.60%	23.80%	0.235	0.381	0.312	0.381	0.547	148	-3.5	24	-20	2.1
Nick Castellanos	432	18	58	1	6.00%	24.50%	0.214	0.344	0.286	0.331	0.5	119	-1.7	8.4	-5.2	1.8
Cameron Maybin	350	3	39	15	9.70%	17.40%	0.096	0.387	0.318	0.388	0.415	121	0.6	9.4	-4.9	1.7
Jose Iglesias	484	4	30	7	5.60%	9.70%	0.077	0.268	0.248	0.3	0.325	68	1.9	-16.6	16.4	1.7
Victor Martinez	583	25	80	0	7.90%	14.80%	0.183	0.303	0.289	0.348	0.472	117	-9.9	2.3	-14.4	0.8
James McCann	352	12	47	0	6.50%	29.30%	0.142	0.278	0.219	0.271	0.361	67	-4.6	-18.6	13.3	0.7
Justin Upton	588	26	79	9	7.80%	28.90%	0.198	0.295	0.237	0.301	0.435	94	1.4	-2.5	-14.5	0.3
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	279	12	38	0	14.00%	35.50%	0.183	0.233	0.179	0.29	0.362	75	0.9	-7.7	1	0.3

It seems like there will never be a time when Miguel Cabrera won't be good. Ian Kinsler is putting up another star-level season (his sixth 4+ win year of his career) and he's actually hitting 30% worse than Miguel Cabrera.

The Tigers are terrible at baserunning, dead last in BsR and sixth worst since 2010. That hasn't really stopped their offense though as they have a 103 wRC+. That's the fifth best in the league, tied with the Indians. Defensively as well they rank in the bottom five.

This team is all about hitting the crap out of the ball. They rank 9th in average exit velocity, 2nd in average batted ball distance, and 4th in average launch angle.

Their common weakness among popular opinion is their bullpen but this year their relievers have been the fifth best staff by fWAR, just slightly better than the Royals bullpen.

This is a pretty good team and the Royals have really struggled in September. A sweep isn't out of the picture but Duffy vs Fulmer will be the best pitching matchup of the series...and maybe the Royals best chance at a win.