FanPost

Should the Royals be Competitors in 2018?

Everybody is talking about the rebuild that may be upon the Royals for 2018, possibly until 2020 when many of the major contracts expire (and the horrendous T.V. contract with Fox Sports KC is over). Many believe 2018 will be a 100 loss year, because names like Hosmer, Moustakas, Minor, Vargas (first half Vargas, at least) and Cain will most likely not be in Royal Blue next year. But should we let that happen?

Obviously, the cost of retaining more than one or two of these players is out of the $120 million payroll the Glass family has set. So the first question: will David Glass raise the payroll? Having never met David or Dan Glass, Dayton Moore, Ned Yost, or any member of the front office, I would say why not. This might not be realistic, but I will outline in this post that doing so will be a good idea.

Why should the Royals push for 2018? Two of the five teams in the American League Central are rebuilding, the Tigers and the White Sox. If we can build a team that can win 80-85% (16 games out of a 19 total games) of the games against rebuilding teams and then win 66% (12.5 games out of 19 total) against the Twins and Indians, that is already 57 games. That leaves 105 games, and if the Royals win 38% of those games- that gets us to 95 wins, enough to take the AL Central in 2014, 2015, and 2016. 2017 got away just because of the 27 game win steak by the Indians (that the Royals broke). This would be enough to win the AL Central in 2018. And that is not asking too much. Winning 1/3 of games outside the AL central will happen. That number will be closer to 50%, if not higher.

So how do we get there? Dayton Moore will need to be better (Fanpost about this will come later). I personally do not believe Hosmer will re-sign. But I have strong feeling Moustakas will. That would leave us with an infield of 1B: Brandon Moss, 2B Whit Merrifield, SS Ramon Torres, 3B Mike Moustakas. This infield will be lead by Moustaks, and the young players fit into Moore's vision of a younger, more athletic team. Cather will still be Perez. Outfield will remain as expected, and be more athletic. LF: Alex Gordon, RF: Bonafosio, CF: Billy Burns. Orlando will be the main player traded here. He proved worth in the final stretch, but the Royals don't need him, and he could be more valuable elsewhere.

Pitching is more challenging. Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel will all need to have bounce back years. Then Jake Junis and Eric Skoglund will hopefully provide youth and energy to the starting pitching. I very much see another starting pitcher being added. Increasing payroll about $7 million. Relief pitching will be led by Scott Alexander as closer, and others stepping up. Another experienced relief pitcher or two will be added, as well.

For this plan to work, we are depending on a lot from Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, Danny Duffy, Alex Gordon, Eric Skoglund, Brandon Moss, Jorge Solar, the bullpen, and I'm sure many others. It may be a long shot, but adding 20-25 million to the payroll for a starter and a some quality relievers and making very smart moves this postseason may be all the Royals need to contend, or even dominate in 2018.

But if Perez, Merrifield, Duffy, Alexander, Junis, and Moss get traded to cut payroll, the chances of waving the Blue and Gold flag next season have vanished.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.