Predicting human behavior is hard. Just ask the NBA champion Golden State Warriors. Or President Hillary Clinton. Yet, we humans continue to do it. I feel like we're getting better, and even though analytical projections have taken a hit in the last year, they're not totally worthless. They still beat crystal balls, tarot cards, and gut feelings.
Still, we here at Royals Review are just as wrong as anyone. You can take a look at how wrong we were in our 2016 prediction thread. Matt Jackson was the only savant wise enough to predict the Royals would win 81 games. Four of us correctly predicted the Cubs would end their championship drought, but no one picked the Indians to win the pennant.
Here are some more bad predictions on the 2017 season that will likely be wrong.
|Royals Predictions||W-L||Player WAR leader||Pitcher WAR leader|
|Josh Duggan||84-78||Mike Moustakas||Danny Duffy|
|Farmhand||85-77||Alex Gordon||Danny Duffy|
|Ryan Heffernon||84-78||Lorenzo Cain||Danny Duffy|
|Hokius||87-75||Mike Moustakas||Danny Duffy|
|Matthew LaMar||83-79||Alex Gordon||Danny Duffy|
|Shaun Newkirk||78-84||Lorenzo Cain||Danny Duffy|
|Max Rieper||78-84||Mike Moustakas||Danny Duffy|
|sterlingice||87-75||Lorenzo Cain||Danny Duffy|
|Timothy Webber||76-86||Lorenzo Cain||Danny Duffy|
Shaun Newkirk: I don't think there is that much separating the Royals from the Twins. The Twins top four (Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler) is about as good as the Royals top four (Cain, Perez, Moustakas, Gordon). The rotations are about the same too (surprisingly). If you can believe it, the difference between Ervin Santana and Danny Duffy projection-wise isn't that much. From there it's a bunch of vets and question marks for both.
Ryan Heffernon: I think they do have one last gasp of air left in them, but I don't think it will replicate 2015. If everything goes right, yes. But the AL will be tough.
Timothy Webber: There are some very plausible scenarios where the Royals could finish either 15 games above or 15 games below .500. I think that things never quite come together this year and the team sputters out down the stretch.
Farmhand: The Royals will circle a Wild Card spot like a three-legged coyote, always sniffing but not able to fight off the pack.
MLB standings (bold indicates projected Wild Card team)
|Josh Duggan||Red Sox||Blue Jays||Yankees||Orioles||Rays|
|Farmhand||Blue Jays||Red Sox||Yankees||Orioles||Rays|
|Ryan Heffernon||Red Sox||Blue Jays||Yankees||Orioles||Rays|
|Hokius||Red Sox||Blue Jays||Yankees||Rays||Orioles|
|Matthew LaMar||Red Sox||Yankees||Blue Jays||Orioles||Rays|
|Shaun Newkirk||Red Sox||Blue Jays||Yankees||Orioles||Rays|
|Max Rieper||Blue Jays||Red Sox||Yankees||Rays||Orioles|
|sterlingice||Red Sox||Blue Jays||Orioles||Rays||Yankees|
|Timothy Webber||Red Sox||Blue Jays||Yankees||Orioles||Rays|
Max Rieper: Finishing last is all part of Buck Showalter's strategic plan to make the playoffs. He's the chessmaster! You simple-minded fools don't get it!
|Josh Duggan||Indians||Royals||Tigers||Twins||White Sox|
|Ryan Heffernon||Indians||Tigers||Royals||Twins||White Sox|
|Matthew LaMar||Indians||Tigers||Royals||Twins||White Sox|
|Shaun Newkirk||Indians||Tigers||Royals||Twins||White Sox|
|Max Rieper||Indians||Tigers||Royals||Twins||White Sox|
|Timothy Webber||Indians||Tigers||Twins||Royals||White Sox|
Max Rieper: The White Sox will be bad. Groin-grabbingly bad. The Twins will make a run at the Royals for third.
sterlingice: The current incarnation of the Rangers seems to exceed projections with the exception of their really injured season in 2014. The Astros are more talented. But they were probably more talented last year and finished 11 games back.
Ryan Heffernon: I almost drank the Mariners Kool-aid. I kinda like that team, but they have failed me in the past.
Max Rieper: The Nationals win the division on the last day of the year when Bryce Harper smacks a game-winning home run, leading to a spate of articles about how selfish he was to not allow his teammates to win the game.
sterlingice: The Pirates are a story that intrigues. They did almost nothing this offseason and I don't think they have enough pitching but this is "one last go round" for Cutch as the core and I'm a bit bearish on the Cards, even if it may just be bias.
Max Rieper: Odd year, man. Giants are going to be awful.
|AL MVP||AL Cy Young||AL Rookie|
|Josh Duggan||Carlos Correa, HOU||Corey Kluber, CLE||Yoan Moncada, CHW|
|Farmhand||Jose Altuve, HOU||Dallas Keuchel, HOU||?|
|Ryan Heffernon||Mike Trout, LAA||Danny Duffy, KCR||Andrew Benintendi, BOS|
|Hokius||Francisco Lindor, CLE||Chris Sale, BOS||Yoan Moncada, CHW|
|Matthew LaMar||Francisco Lindor, CLE||Corey Kluber, CLE||Lucas Giolito, CHW|
|Shaun Newkirk||Mike Trout, LAA||Chris Sale, BOS||Andrew Benintendi, BOS|
|Max Rieper||Carlos Correa, HOU||Marcus Stroman, TOR||Aaron Judge, NYY|
|sterlingice||Mike Trout, LAA||Yu Darvish, TEX||Andrew Benintendi, BOS|
|Tim Webber||Mookie Betts, BOS||Corey Kluber, CLE||Andrew Benintendi, BOS|
|NL MVP||NL Cy Young||NL Rookie|
|Josh Duggan||Clayton Kershaw, LAD||Clayton Kershaw, LAD||Dansby Swanson, ATL|
|Farmhand||Kris Bryant, CHC||Jake Arrieta, CHC||?|
|Ryan Heffernon||Bryce Harper, WAS||Clayton Kershaw, LAD||Dansby Swanson, ATL|
|Hokius||Bryce Harper, WAS||Noah Syndergaard, NYM||Dansby Swanson, ATL|
|Matthew LaMar||Corey Seager, LAD||Clayton Kershaw, LAD||Dansby Swanson, ATL|
|Shaun Newkirk||Bryce Harper, WAS||Clayton Kershaw, LAD||Dansby Swanson, ATL|
|Max Rieper||Corey Seager, LAD||Noah Syndergaard, NYM||Dansby Swanson, ATL|
|sterlingice||Andrew McCutchen, PIT||Clayton Kershaw, LAD||Dansby Swanson, ATL|
|Tim Webber||Kris Bryant, CHC||Clayton Kershaw, LAD||Dansby Swanson, ATL|
Ryan Heffernon: Feel like Andrew Benintendi is the safe choice for Rookie of the Year, but would rather seen Yoan Moncada win it.
|Josh Duggan||Astros over Indians||Cubs over Dodgers||Cubs over Astros|
|Farmhand||Astros over Blue Jays||Cubs over Dodgers||Cubs over Astros|
|Ryan Heffernon||Red Sox over Indians||Dodgers over Cubs||Dodgers over Red Sox|
|Hokius||Red Sox over Indians||Cubs over Dodgers||Cubs over Red Sox|
|Matthew LaMar||Indians over Astros||Dodgers over Cubs||Dodgers over Red Sox|
|Shaun Newkirk||Red Sox over Indians||Dodgers over Cubs||Red Sox over Dodgers|
|Max Rieper||Astros over Blue Jays||Nationals over Cubs||Astros over Nationals|
|sterlingice||Indians over Rangers||Cubs over Pirates||Indians over Cubs|
|Timothy Webber||Red Sox over Blue Jays||Cubs over Dodgers||Red Sox over Cubs|
Timothy Webber: I don't really think Texas will finish with the best record in the American League, but I need a Rangers/Blue Jays playoff series in my life, like, every year. The NL side of the bracket is just so boring that I had to throw Miami in there for fun. The world needs to witness their home run sculpture/monstrosity for at least one playoff game.
Max Rieper: The Blue Jays will become the second team ever to blow a 3-0 lead in a series, when Jose Bautista commits a huge mental error and melts down on the field, allowing the Astros to win the game, and the next three games to win the pennant. The comeback fuels the Astros to win their first championship, causing mass streaking.
What are your predictions?