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Considered a contender for the American League West pennant heading into the season, the Texas Rangers have gotten off to a sluggish 5-10 start, the second-worst in the baseball, better than only the Toronto Blue Jays. Similarly undone by their bullpen, the Rangers’ 12 meltdowns are second only to the Cubs’ 13.
- Thursday, April 20,
4:207:05 PM CDT - Danny Duffy (LHP) vs. Andrew Cashner (RHP) - Friday, April 21, 7:05 CDT - Nate Karns (RHP) vs. Cole Hamels (LHP)
- Saturday, April 22, 7:05 CDT - Ian Kennedy (RHP) vs. A.J. Griffin (RHP)
- Sunday, April 23, 1:05 CDT - Jason Hammel (RHP) vs. Yu Darvish (RHP)
numberFire, whose Alex McDonald emails me with their odds for the series, handicaps the series as follows:
In the first game of the series, we give the Royals a 51.32% chance to win.
In the second game, a 46.56% chance.
In the third game, a 47.98% chance.
And in the fourth game, a 44.32% chance.
Our projections will update with any news that comes out up to the start of the game.
Royals vs. Rangers pitching matchups
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
| Danny Duffy (L) | 3 | 20.0 | 17 | 22.1 | 7 | 9.1 | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.15 | 3.95 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Andrew Cashner | 1 | 5.1 | 2 | 8.7 | 3 | 13 | 5.06 | 3.84 | 5.03 | 5.40 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Nathan Karns | 3 | 12.1 | 8 | 15.4 | 6 | 11.5 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Cole Hamels (L) | 3 | 18.0 | 11 | 14.7 | 7 | 9.3 | 3.50 | 5.51 | 4.93 | 4.77 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Ian Kennedy | 3 | 19.0 | 19 | 25.3 | 9 | 12.0 | 2.37 | 3.01 | 4.33 | 4.03 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| A.J. Griffin | 3 | 15.1 | 16 | 26.7 | 4 | 6.7 | 4.11 | 4.34 | 3.96 | 3.43 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Jason Hammel | 3 | 15.2 | 9 | 12.7 | 7 | 9.9 | 4.60 | 3.09 | 5.42 | 5.33 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Yu Darvish | 4 | 24.2 | 23 | 23.5 | 12 | 12.2 | 3.28 | 3.55 | 3.72 | 4.14 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
It would appear as though the Royals and Rangers have an advantage in starting pitching in two games apiece. Andrew Cashner has had just one start, though no one would confuse him with a great starting pitcher, as ZiPS has him projected to be worth just 1.0 fWAR this year. Though it is early, Cole Hamels has been roughly replacement-level so far this season. Of course, as a southpaw, he should enjoy facing a slumping Royals lineup where he can immobilize Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, and potentially Mike Moustakas. A.J. Griffin’s last start was six sterling innings of one-hit, one-walk, eight-strikeout ball against the same Oakland squad that gave Kansas City nightmares. Yu Darvish is pretty cool.
Rangers position players
| Player | Pos. | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos. | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | 58 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 4 | .321 | .345 | .589 | .398 | 159 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Nomar Mazara | RF | 62 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 1 | .328 | .371 | .586 | .406 | 165 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Joey Gallo | 3B | 52 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | .178 | .288 | .400 | .302 | 91 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Carlos Gomez | CF | 64 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 0 | .164 | .281 | .382 | .295 | 86 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Rougned Odor | 2B | 58 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 | .214 | .241 | .446 | .294 | 85 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | DH | 50 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .238 | .360 | .333 | .317 | 102 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | C | 44 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .190 | .227 | .262 | .219 | 31 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Jurickson Profar | LF/Util | 30 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .174 | .345 | .174 | .263 | 63 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Mike Napoli | 1B | 61 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | .148 | .233 | .296 | .224 | 35 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Bench | |||||||||||||
| Robinson Chirinos | C | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | .455 | .800 | .526 | 252 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Ryan Rua | OF | 18 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .118 | .167 | .118 | .136 | -28 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Delino DeShields | OF | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -100 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
As a unit, the Rangers offense has gotten off to a slow start in 2017. They are slashing .217/.290/.397 with a .299 wOBA and an 89 wRC+. It’s not quite Royals bad, but they’ve only been worth 1.0 fWAR thus far, putting them at the 23rd-ranked set of position players. Thus far, Elvis Andrus and Nomar Mazara’s hot starts have fueled what little offense they’ve had. Much like the Royals, they’ve suffered the ignominy of having the worst BABIP as a team in the American League, sporting a woeful .248 mark heading into action yesterday.
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
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Poll
Who will win the series?
This poll is closed
-
8%
Royals sweep
(28 votes) -
35%
Royals win three of four
(118 votes) -
47%
Split
(159 votes) -
6%
Rangers take three of four
(21 votes) -
1%
Rangers sweep
(6 votes)