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Coming off their first series win since they took out the Angels nearly a month ago, the Royals come home from Russia to face the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles own the second-best record (22-11) in the American League, a game off the pace set by the Houston Astros, despite their 3rd-order wins suggesting they’ve been over four wins more fortunate than their play on the field suggests they should have been.
The crew over at numberFire sent me their projections for the series. They read as follows:
In the first game of the series, we give the Royals a 51.28% chance to win.
In the second game, a 52.58% chance.
And in the third game, a 48.93% chance.
Our projections will update with any news that comes out up to the start of the game.
The games and matchups should look like this:
- Friday, May 12, 7:15 PM CDT - Chris Tillman vs. Danny Duffy (L)
- Saturday, May 13, 6:15 PM CDT - Kevin Gausman vs. Nate Karns
- Sunday, May 14, 1:15 PM CDT - Ubaldo Jiménez vs. ?
Orioles at Royals pitching matchups
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
| Chris Tillman | 1 | 5.0 | 4 | 18.2 | 3 | 13.6 | 0.00 | 3.23 | 5.23 | 5.26 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Danny Duffy (L) | 7 | 43.2 | 29 | 16 | 16 | 8.8 | 3.50 | 3.53 | 4.69 | 4.84 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Kevin Gausman | 8 | 38.0 | 28 | 15.6 | 19 | 10.6 | 6.63 | 5.26 | 5.23 | 5.12 | 0.1 | -0.5 |
| Nate Karns | 7 | 35.1 | 36 | 24.3 | 12 | 8.1 | 4.58 | 4.38 | 3.64 | 3.57 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 7 | 33.2 | 24 | 16.1 | 20 | 13.4 | 6.15 | 6.47 | 5.21 | 5.40 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Chris Young (?) | 8 | 13.2 | 9 | 12.7 | 8 | 11.3 | 5.93 | 5.59 | 5.76 | 5.21 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
In addition to facing the Orioles mere days after Zach Britton landed on the disabled list, the Royals are fortunate enough to miss the Orioles two best starters thus far: Dylan Bundy and Wade Miley. Facing one of the best teams in baseball, it’s hard to say that two of these three matchups at least modestly favor the Royals.
Orioles position players
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 147 | 9 | 18 | 22 | 2 | .227 | .320 | .477 | .340 | 115 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 2B | 121 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 0 | .306 | .355 | .537 | .377 | 141 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Seth Smith (L) | RF | 75 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 1 | .313 | .400 | .547 | .404 | 160 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Welington Castillo * | C | 72 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 0 | .314 | .333 | .443 | .336 | 112 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Trey Mancini | 1B/DH | 75 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 0 | .296 | .320 | .648 | .402 | 158 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Chris Davis (L) | 1B/DH | 135 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 0 | .239 | .348 | .389 | .325 | 104 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Adam Jones | CF | 148 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 1 | .263 | .318 | .401 | .315 | 98 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Francisco Peña | C | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | .442 | 186 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Joey Rickard | OF | 43 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .262 | .279 | .405 | .294 | 83 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Hyun Soo Kim (L) | LF | 50 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .222 | .300 | .311 | .277 | 71 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Caleb Joseph | C | 59 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | .237 | .237 | .322 | .241 | 46 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Ryan Flaherty (L) | IF | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .143 | .250 | .143 | .198 | 16 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Craig Gentry | OF | 41 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 3 | .171 | .268 | .286 | .251 | 52 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Mark Trumbo | RF/DH | 143 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 1 | .239 | .287 | .358 | .284 | 75 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| J.J. Hardy | SS | 122 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 | .209 | .248 | .270 | .231 | 39 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| * 10-day DL |
The Orioles’ offense have slashed .253/.312/.412 with a .315 wOBA and a 97 wRC+. Their 3.5 fWAR amassed thus far is good for 19th-best amongst major-league squads. They haven’t been great, obviously, but somehow they keep winning. Jonathan Schoop has been their only offensive full-time player exceeding expectations, though Trey Mancini and Seth Smith have impressed in part-time duty. Early returns on Manny Machado would seem to point to bad luck—.220 BABIP, .086 points below his career average, despite a career-high 45.0% Hard%—playing a central role in the documentary What Happened to Manny Machado for the First Five weeks of 2017?
Given the recent postseason history between these two squads, it’s probably safe to say that this series will be a WAR.
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
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Poll
How will the Royals fare against the Orioles?
This poll is closed
-
14%
Royals sweep
(44 votes) -
39%
Royals take two
(120 votes) -
26%
Orioles take two
(80 votes) -
19%
Orioles sweep
(59 votes)