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The Royals play Cleveland again. They just played them last weekend. This is where the weighted schedules for divisional rivals makes for yawn-inducing redundancy. Cleveland is currently tied with Minnesota for first place in the AL Central.
Alex McDonald of numberFire sent me their updated playoff odds and odds for the series matchup. They are as follows:
In our numberFire Power Rankings, we have the Royals as the 29th ranked team in the MLB with a 1.6% chance to make the postseason.
Additionally, here is a quick preview for the three games against Cleveland.
In the first game of the series, we give the Royals, a 46.95% win probability to win tomorrow night.
In the second game, a 47.5% win probability.
In the third game, Kansas City has a 46.55% win probability.
The matchups this weekend are as follows:
- Friday, June 2, 7:15 PM CDT - Josh Tomlin versus Jason Vargas (L)
- Saturday, June 3, 1:15 PM CDT - Carlos Carrasco versus Jason Hammel
- Sunday, June 4, 1:15 PM CDT - Trevor Bauer versus Eric Skoglund (L)
Cleveland at Kansas City pitching matchups
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
| Josh Tomlin | 10 | 56.0 | 39 | 16.7 | 4 | 1.7 | 5.79 | 3.77 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Jason Vargas (L) | 10 | 60.1 | 51 | 21.0 | 15 | 6.2 | 2.39 | 3.22 | 4.42 | 4.20 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 10 | 65.1 | 65 | 26.1 | 16 | 6.4 | 2.89 | 3.56 | 3.44 | 3.45 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Jason Hammel | 10 | 51.1 | 40 | 16.7 | 23 | 9.6 | 6.18 | 4.78 | 5.49 | 5.09 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| Trevor Bauer | 10 | 57.0 | 73 | 29.9 | 19 | 7.8 | 6.00 | 3.99 | 3.04 | 3.22 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Eric Skoglund (L) | 1 | 6.1 | 5 | 22.7 | 1 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 1.93 | 4.37 | 3.91 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
The Royals will face Josh Tomlin again after seeing him on Sunday and doing next to nothing against the walk-averse righty. A team who doesn’t walk versus a pitcher who doesn’t allow them. The odds of Tomlin going at more than seven innings have got to be pretty high. This time around, the Royals will also have to face Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland’s best starter this year, and Trevor Bauer. Both Tomlin and Bauer have seen their ERA come in 2.01 higher than their FIP, meaning Bauer and Tomlin have probably both been rather unlucky thus far. Royals’ rookie Eric Skoglund will try to build on a sterling debut against Detroit earlier this week. The lanky lefty will have his work cut out for him against the first-place Cleveland squad.
Cleveland position players
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
| Francisco Lindor (S) | SS | 223 | 12 | 36 | 25 | 3 | .276 | .345 | .541 | .370 | 133 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Jose Ramírez (S) | 3B | 206 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 5 | .293 | .359 | .495 | .362 | 128 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Michael Brantley (L) | LF | 188 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 6 | .300 | .367 | .441 | .351 | 120 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Yan Gomes | C | 128 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 0 | .232 | .323 | .411 | .321 | 99 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Bradley Zimmer (L) | CF | 41 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 3 | .306 | .390 | .583 | .411 | 161 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Jason Kipnis (L) | 2B | 147 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 2 | .229 | .259 | .400 | .281 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Carlos Santana (S) | 1B | 230 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 2 | .228 | .322 | .401 | .315 | 95 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | DH | 219 | 10 | 23 | 22 | 1 | .234 | .349 | .418 | .337 | 110 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Daniel Robertson | RF | 30 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .231 | .333 | .308 | .277 | 69 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Erik González | Util | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .100 | .100 | .100 | .088 | -61 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Austin Jackson | OF | 55 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | .255 | .309 | .489 | .329 | 105 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Roberto Pérez | C | 67 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | .136 | .224 | .153 | .183 | 4 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
Cleveland could get Lonnie Chisenhall back from the 7-day concussion DL during this series, and Abraham Almonte might be close to coming back as well. Cleveland’s position players are the 16th-ranked unit in terms of fWAR. They’ve slashed .247/.324/.420 with a .321 wOBA and a 99 wRC+, meaning they’re roughly league average.
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference through action on Wednesday, May 17.
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Poll
How will the Royals fare against Cleveland?
This poll is closed
-
20%
Royals sweep
(17 votes) -
33%
Royals take two of three
(27 votes) -
35%
Cleveland takes two of three
(29 votes) -
9%
Cleveland sweeps
(8 votes)