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The Kansas City Royals venture into Dodger Stadium to face the white-hot Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers trail the Astros by half a game for the best record in baseball. Since May 25, the Dodgers are 31-9, running their record to 29 games over .500.
They are really good.
Alex McDonald of numberFire shot the probabilities for the Royals over via email. They are as follows:
In our numberFire Power Rankings, we have Kansas City as the 21st ranked team in the MLB with a 23.2% chance to make the postseason. We also have the Royals projected to finished with a 80-82 record this season.
Additionally, here is a quick preview for the three games against Los Angeles. In the first game of the series, we give the Royals a 40.2% chance to win tonight. In the second game, a 33.68% win probability. And in the third game, a 37.52% win probability.
The game times and pitching matchups are as follows:
- Friday, July 7, 9:10 PM CDT - Jason Hammel versus Kenta Maeda
- Saturday, July 8, 6:15 PM CDT - Ian Kennedy versus Brandon McCarthy
- Sunday, July 8, 3:15 PM CDT - Danny Duffy (L) versus Clayton Kershaw (L)
Royals at Dodgers pitching matchups
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
| Jason Hammel | 16 | 88.2 | 70 | 17.4 | 29 | 7.2 | 5.08 | 4.52 | 5.29 | 4.90 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Kenta Maeda | 13 | 73.0 | 72 | 23.7 | 19 | 6.3 | 4.56 | 4.09 | 4.13 | 3.96 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Ian Kennedy | 15 | 81.0 | 69 | 20.8 | 35 | 10.5 | 4.44 | 5.36 | 5.23 | 4.90 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| Brandon McCarthy | 13 | 72.0 | 57 | 19.7 | 20 | 6.9 | 3.25 | 3.21 | 4.17 | 4.40 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Danny Duffy (L) | 12 | 74.1 | 58 | 18.7 | 27 | 8.7 | 3.51 | 3.55 | 4.84 | 4.83 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Clayton Kershaw (L) | 18 | 123.1 | 146 | 30.9 | 22 | 4.7 | 2.19 | 3.12 | 2.84 | 2.98 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
Judging strictly by the pitching matchups, it would seem that Friday’s tilt provides the Royals with the best opportunity to beat the Dodgers. Maeda is the only Dodger starter that the Royals will see this weekend who hasn’t pitched particularly well. Coming off a rough start that saw him get pulled in the fourth with five earned runs allowed, the Royals will have to hope that they can replicate what the Padres did to him on Sunday. Maeda has only made it past the fifth inning in three of his starts this season, meaning the Royals could well get to the Dodgers’ bullpen quickly in this one.
Unlike Maeda, McCarthy and Kershaw have been pretty productive. Kershaw’s results have been relatively pedestrian by his godlike standards, but his fWAR still ranks him third in baseball amongst pitchers (he’s fifth in rWAR). McCarthy is coming off the disabled list with a knee injury after just over the minimum ten days. His last start was a rough one, but his seven starts prior saw him yield two or fewer runs. Inducing infield flies at a career-best rate, likely due to his increased reliance upon his cutter, which he’s throwing 30.0% of the time.
Los Angeles Dodgers position players
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
| Justin Turner | 3B | 264 | 8 | 38 | 33 | 2 | .380 | .475 | .566 | .444 | 181 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Corey Seager (L) | SS | 340 | 13 | 57 | 44 | 3 | .299 | .397 | .509 | .384 | 142 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Chris Taylor | Util | 265 | 10 | 43 | 38 | 11 | .295 | .377 | .500 | .375 | 136 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Yasmani Grandal (S) | C | 273 | 11 | 29 | 34 | 0 | .271 | .324 | .474 | .338 | 112 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Cody Bellinger (L) | 1B/LF | 280 | 24 | 48 | 56 | 5 | .258 | .336 | .613 | .384 | 142 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Austin Barnes | C | 122 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 4 | .284 | .402 | .520 | .393 | 148 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Kike Hernández | SS/CF | 209 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 3 | .217 | .313 | .461 | .326 | 104 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Yasiel Puig | RF | 314 | 15 | 39 | 42 | 9 | .249 | .325 | .448 | .325 | 103 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Logan Forsythe | 2B | 204 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 1 | .249 | .368 | .349 | .323 | 102 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Joc Pederson (L) | CF | 200 | 8 | 30 | 24 | 1 | .235 | .360 | .446 | .348 | 118 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Chase Utley (L) | 1B/2B | 219 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 3 | .219 | .321 | .385 | .309 | 92 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Trayce Thompson | RF | 32 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .107 | .219 | .250 | .192 | 20 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Scott Van Slyke | OF | 48 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | .122 | .250 | .293 | .236 | 45 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
The Dodgers position players trail just the Astros in fWAR, and do so only by 0.1 wins. Their 111 wRC+ is trails the Astros and Yankees, and the defensive component of fWAR ranks them second-best in baseball behind the Reds. Since Cody Bellinger started getting the lion’s share of the playing time at 1B, replacing the injured Adrian Gonzalez who was playing below replacement level, it’s hard to see a hole in the Dodgers’ lineup. All the money in the world and a brilliant front office can do that. It is not hard to see how they could be 29 games over .500.
Poll
How will the Royals do at Dodger Stadium?
This poll is closed
-
8%
Royals sweep
(47 votes) -
30%
Royals take two of three
(177 votes) -
45%
Dodgers take two of three
(261 votes) -
15%
Dodgers sweep
(91 votes)
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference through action on Thursday, July 7.
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