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One game over .500 and 1.5 games behind the Royals for the last Wild Card spot, the Seattle Mariners come to Kauffman Stadium with a chance to close the gap on or even pass a Royals squad that just scored three runs in a three-game series in Baltimore against the Orioles struggling starting pitching staff. This series has playoff implications and will feature a starter from each team who was acquired at the deadline to shore up weaknesses.
Alex McDonald over at numberFire sent their projections over and they are as follows:
In our numberFire Power Rankings, we have the Royals as the 19th ranked team in the MLB with a 27.7% chance to make the postseason. We also project them to finish with a 82-80 record.
Additionally, here is a quick preview for the four games against Seattle. In the first game of the series, we give the Royals a 53.84% chance to win tonight. In the second game, a 44.3% win probability. In the third game, a 51.26% win probability. And in the fourth game, a 45.8% win probability.
The series game times and pitching matchups are as follows:
- Thursday, August 3, 7:15 PM CDT - Yovani Gallardo versus Trevor Cahill
- Friday, August 4, 7:15 PM CDT - James Paxton (L) versus Jason Hammel
- Saturday, August 5, 6:15 PM CDT - Felix Hernandez versus Danny Duffy
- Sunday, August 6, 1:15 PM CDT - Erasmo Ramírez versus Ian Kennedy
Mariners at Royals pitching matchups
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
| Yovani Gallardo | 20 | 97.2 | 72 | 16.9 | 42 | 9.8 | 5.34 | 4.87 | 4.94 | 5.08 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Trevor Cahill | 12 | 65.0 | 74 | 26.2 | 26 | 9.2 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.51 | 3.75 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| James Paxton (L) | 18 | 107.1 | 125 | 28.7 | 31 | 7.1 | 2.68 | 2.38 | 3.24 | 3.44 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Jason Hammel | 21 | 119.1 | 93 | 17.6 | 36 | 6.8 | 4.75 | 4.31 | 5.08 | 4.79 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Felix Hernandez | 13 | 73.2 | 69 | 21.7 | 21 | 6.6 | 4.28 | 5.21 | 4.03 | 4.12 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Danny Duffy (L) | 17 | 108.0 | 85 | 19.2 | 29 | 6.6 | 3.42 | 3.34 | 4.66 | 4.56 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Erasmo Ramírez | 27 | 72.2 | 60 | 20.1 | 16 | 5.4 | 4.83 | 4.35 | 4.04 | 3.98 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Ian Kennedy | 20 | 107.2 | 92 | 20.7 | 42 | 9.4 | 4.60 | 4.99 | 5.08 | 4.76 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
Clearly, having to face James Paxton this time around is unfortunate for the Royals. If you are unfamiliar with Paxton’s success, take a gander at Jeff Sullivan’s article from yesterday. Paxton’s 3.9 fWAR have been accrued in roughly 20-30 fewer innings than the bulk of the rest of the starters atop the leaderboard. The other three starters are less intimidating than Paxton, but mediocre pitchers are the Royals’ kryptonite. Felix Hernandez has been undone by the dong. Yovani Gallardo has been undone by being Yovani Gallardo. Erasmo Ramírez is probably a nice guy.
Seattle Mariners position players
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
| Kyle Seager (L) | 3B | 441 | 14 | 45 | 55 | 1 | .261 | .333 | .445 | .330 | 109 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Jarrod Dyson (L) | CF | 337 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 24 | .244 | .319 | .358 | .296 | 86 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Ben Gamel (L) | LF | 364 | 6 | 56 | 36 | 3 | .313 | .364 | .449 | .349 | 122 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Jean Segura (L) | SS | 352 | 6 | 48 | 32 | 12 | .322 | .368 | .439 | .346 | 120 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Robinson Canó (L) | 2B | 425 | 19 | 54 | 73 | 1 | .269 | .329 | .469 | .334 | 112 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Mike Zunino | C | 275 | 16 | 34 | 43 | 0 | .228 | .305 | .480 | .332 | 110 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Nelson Cruz | DH | 426 | 22 | 52 | 80 | 1 | .275 | .362 | .504 | .362 | 131 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Guillermo Heredia | OF | 274 | 6 | 35 | 19 | 1 | .273 | .339 | .373 | .315 | 99 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Carlos Ruiz | C | 107 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 1 | .231 | .330 | .341 | .300 | 88 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Danny Espinosa (S) | IF | 263 | 6 | 28 | 30 | 4 | .161 | .237 | .271 | .225 | 38 | -0.8 | -1.4 |
| Leonys Martin (L) | RF | 71 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 | .164 | .211 | .254 | .205 | 23 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Danny Valencia | 1B | 401 | 11 | 45 | 53 | 1 | .264 | .317 | .409 | .312 | 96 | -0.2 | 1.3 |
With nine players worth at least 1.0 fWAR, the Mariners are deeper than every team in the American League other than the Astros (who also have nine such players). Slashing .259/.328/.416 with a .319 wOBA and 102 wRC+, their above-average offense and passable defense have combined to make them the 10th-most-valuable unit in the game. Fueled by his sterling defense, Jarrod Dyson is arguably the Mariners’ best position player.
Poll
How will the Royals fare against the Mariners?
This poll is closed
-
7%
Royals sweep
(18 votes) -
39%
Royals take three of four
(89 votes) -
31%
Split
(71 votes) -
15%
Mariners take three of four
(35 votes) -
6%
Mariners sweep
(14 votes)
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference through action on Tuesday, August 1.
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