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There isn’t a whole lot that’s changed since the Royals traveled to Target Field last weekend. The Royals are still 2.5 games behind the Twins, who still hold the second Wild Card spot.
Alex McDonald at numberFire shot their odds for the series over:
In the first game of the series, we give the Royals a 48.27% chance to win tomorrow night. In the second game, a 49.15% chance. In the third game, a 49.07% chance. And in the fourth game, a 47.92% chance on Sunday.
These are the game times and pitching matchups:
- Thursday, September 7, 7:15 PM CDT - Kyle Gibson versus Sam Gaviglio
- Friday, September 8, 7:15 PM CDT - Ervin Santana versus Ian Kennedy
- Saturday, September 9, 6:15 PM CDT - José Berríos versus Jake Junis
- Sunday, September 10, 1:15 PM CDT - Bartolo Colón versus Jason Vargas
Twins at Royals pitching matchups
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | G | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | fWAR | rWAR |
| Kyle Gibson | 24 | 128.1 | 95 | 16.5 | 52 | 9.0 | 5.33 | 4.89 | 4.44 | 4.77 | 0.9 | -0.1 |
| Sam Gaviglio | 12 | 62.1 | 40 | 15.4 | 21 | 8.1 | 4.62 | 6.08 | 4.86 | 5.02 | -0.4 | 0.3 |
| Ervin Santana | 28 | 182.2 | 148 | 19.7 | 58 | 7.7 | 3.35 | 4.59 | 4.75 | 4.60 | 2.2 | 3.8 |
| Ian Kennedy | 26 | 135.2 | 113 | 19.6 | 55 | 9.5 | 5.37 | 5.57 | 5.32 | 4.93 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| José Berríos | 21 | 123.1 | 122 | 23.7 | 36 | 7.0 | 4.01 | 3.82 | 4.30 | 4.05 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Jake Junis | 15 | 68.1 | 60 | 20.1 | 18 | 6.0 | 4.48 | 4.42 | 4.86 | 4.37 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Bartolo Colón | 23 | 124.2 | 80 | 14.1 | 31 | 5.5 | 6.06 | 5.02 | 5.04 | 4.99 | 0.8 | -1.1 |
| Jason Vargas (L) | 27 | 153.1 | 113 | 17.4 | 46 | 7.1 | 4.23 | 4.69 | 4.97 | 4.84 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
Frankly, it’s hard to look at any of those matchups and feel good about them if you’re the Royals. The Royals just saw Gibson on Saturday, but they didn’t do anything against him while getting blown out 17-0. While the Royals won’t be trotting Onelki Garcia out there, Sam Gaviglio is a wild card, at best, as he was just released by the Mariners as a 40-man casualty despite having six more years of club control.
The Royals somewhat miraculously won an Ian Kennedy start on Sunday, a game that saw Kennedy face off against the same opposing pitcher as he’ll get on Friday in the form of Ervin Santana. That outcome notwithstanding, Kennedy was abysmal in August.
Junis has had a nice season, but he’s no José Berríos.
Colón was terrible in Atlanta, but he’s been solid since the Twins picked him up. Vargas has not just turned back into a pumpkin, but the pumpkin’s overrun with maggots.
Minnesota Twins position players
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | fWAR | rWAR |
| Brian Dozier | 2B | 605 | 28 | 83 | 79 | 14 | .262 | .350 | .480 | .351 | 116 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Byron Buxton | CF | 418 | 13 | 58 | 42 | 25 | .256 | .320 | .413 | .316 | 92 | 3.1 | 4.8 |
| Joe Mauer (L) | 1B | 504 | 6 | 59 | 56 | 2 | .302 | .383 | .415 | .349 | 115 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Eddie Rosario (L) | LF | 494 | 20 | 65 | 60 | 7 | .286 | .326 | .490 | .342 | 110 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Max Kepler (L) | RF | 501 | 17 | 61 | 62 | 5 | .247 | .316 | .433 | .319 | 94 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Jorge Polanco (S) | SS | 444 | 10 | 51 | 60 | 10 | .256 | .307 | .410 | .305 | 85 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Eduardo Escobar (S) | 3B | 398 | 15 | 45 | 56 | 4 | .249 | .307 | .423 | .309 | 88 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Jason Castro (L) | C | 345 | 7 | 40 | 36 | 0 | .227 | .325 | .367 | .304 | 84 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Chris Gimenez | C | 196 | 6 | 20 | 14 | 1 | .198 | .330 | .352 | .306 | 85 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Ehire Adrianza (S) | Util | 149 | 1 | 21 | 20 | 8 | .254 | .324 | .357 | .293 | 76 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Robbie Grossman (S) | DH/OF | 383 | 8 | 51 | 36 | 2 | .244 | .366 | .372 | .330 | 102 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Kennys Vargas (S) | 1B/DH | 231 | 9 | 30 | 36 | 0 | .245 | .303 | .420 | .308 | 87 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Mitch Garver | C | 38 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .219 | .342 | .375 | .316 | 92 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Niko Goodrum (S) | 3B | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -100 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Zack Granite (L) | OF | 86 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 2 | .231 | .302 | .256 | .256 | 51 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
Still the same guys.
Poll
How will the Royals fare against the Twins?
This poll is closed
-
10%
Royals sweep
(21 votes) -
30%
Royals take three of four
(61 votes) -
30%
Split
(61 votes) -
19%
Twins take three of four
(40 votes) -
9%
Twins sweep
(19 votes)
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference through action on Tuesday, September 5.
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