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The 2018 prediction thread

All predictions wrong or your money back!

Kansas City Royals v Baltimore Orioles Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Predictions are typically fun to do before the year, but this year MLB predictions seem, well, predictable. About 10-12 teams have decided to pretty much go cheap rebuild and sit this year out, and at the other end of the spectrum, 6-8 teams looks like All-Star teams assembled by Springfield Nuclear Plant owner C. Montgomery Burns. So it may be pretty tempting to just project everything that happened last year to repeat itself this year. Time is a flat circle, after all.

But hold up a sec, if a plucky little Jesuit college in Chicago can best the big boys and reach the Final Four powered by the prayers of a 98-year nun, then anything can happen. The unpredictability of sports is a big reason why we love them. And just when you think you have the season figured out, there is typically a plot twist you didn’t see coming. The Giancarlo Stanton trade was actually a dream! Jose Altuve was actually dead the entire time! “Rosebud” was actually the name of the Dodgers closer!

Here are the predictions from the Royals Review writing staff. You can see how badly we did last year. I also solicited responses in a poll among readers, with well over 100 of you giving your equally wrong predictions, (you can see more detailed charts of the responses here). Let’s start with the Royals.

2018 Royals predictions

Royals Predictions Record Position WAR leader Pitching WAR leader
Royals Predictions Record Position WAR leader Pitching WAR leader
Patrick Brennan 71-91 Whit Merrifield Danny Duffy
Josh Duggan 73-89 Mike Moustakas Danny Duffy
Alex Duvall 80-82 Salvador Perez Danny Duffy
Ryan Heffernon 70-92 Salvador Perez Danny Duffy
Hokius 75-87 Mike Moustakas Danny Duffy
Matthew LaMar 75-87 Alex Gordon Danny Duffy
Shaun Newkirk 70-92 Mike Moustakas Jake Junis
Max Rieper 70-92 Whit Merrifield Danny Duffy
Sean Thornton 74-88 Salvador Perez Danny Duffy
sterlingice 76-86 Salvador Perez Ian Kennedy

sterlingice: Anything from 85 to 65 wins wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t think this team will be in contention except maybe after whatever their biggest hot streak of the season. But I also don’t expect the familiar mid-00s “20 games out by mid-May” quite this season.

Matthew LaMar: Hear me out: Moustakas and Merrifield are going to have higher WAR, but both are likely to end the season on a different team. Bonifacio has an 80-game suspension. Soler is a wild card. Perez has played fewer and fewer games every year since 2014. And Gordon had 1.3 WAR in only 128 games as recently as 2016.

Hokius: Danny Duffy is just too good to miss this. Jake Junis will come in second with a very solid season, though. Karns will be third because he’ll be even more injured than Duffy.

Reader vote:

Reader position WAR leader vote: Whit Merrifield (63.6%), Salvador Perez (17.4%), Mike Moustakas (15.2%)

Reader pitcher WAR leader vote: Danny Duffy (47.4%), Jakob Junis (34.6%), Nate Karns (9%), Ian Kennedy (4.5%)

How about the standings? Bold indicates Wild Card.

American League East

Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Patrick Brennan Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Rays Orioles
Josh Duggan Red Sox Yankees Rays Orioles Blue Jays
Alex Duvall Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Rays Orioles
Ryan Heffernon Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Rays Orioles
Hokius Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles Rays
Matthew LaMar Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles Rays
Shaun Newkirk Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Rays Orioles
Max Rieper Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles Rays
Sean Thornton Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Rays Orioles
sterlingice Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles Rays

Reader AL East winner vote: Yankees (78.2%), Red Sox (20.3%)

American League Central

Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Patrick Brennan Indians Twins White Sox Royals Tigers
Josh Duggan Indians Twins White Sox Royals Tigers
Alex Duvall Indians Royals Twins White Sox Tigers
Ryan Heffernon Indians Twins Royals Tigers White Sox
Hokius Indians Twins Royals White Sox Tigers
Matthew LaMar Indians Twins White Sox Royals Tigers
Shaun Newkirk Indians Twins White Sox Royals Tigers
Max Rieper Twins Indians White Sox Royals Tigers
Sean Thornton Twins Indians White Sox Royals Tigers
sterlingice Indians Twins Royals White Sox Tigers

Reader AL Central winner vote: Indians (78.9%), Twins (15.8%), Royals (4.5%)

American League West

Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Patrick Brennan Astros Angels Athletics Mariners Rangers
Josh Duggan Astros Angels Mariners Rangers Athletics
Alex Duvall Astros Mariners Athletics Angels Rangers
Ryan Heffernon Astros Angels Mariners Rangers Athletics
Hokius Astros Angels Rangers Mariners Athletics
Matthew LaMar Astros Angels Rangers Mariners Athletics
Shaun Newkirk Astros Angels Mariners Rangers Athletics
Max Rieper Astros Angels Mariners Athletics Rangers
Sean Thornton Astros Angels Mariners Rangers Athletics
sterlingice Astros Angels Mariners Rangers Athletics

Reader AL West winner vote: Astros (95.5%), Angels (3.8%)

Reader AL First Wild Card vote: Red Sox (62.6%), Yankees (12.2%), Twins (8.4%),

Reader AL Second Wild Card vote: Angels (26.2%), Twins (24.6%), Royals (10.8%)

sterlingice: The top 4 teams in the AL are as cut and dry as I can ever remember. I’m just going to be lazy, pretend Shohei Ohtani will be good, and go with the easy Angels prediction for the second Wild Card, never mind that the team seems to be just missing something in the current incarnation. As for other teams, the Jays confuse me - I think they’re trying one more go round with some bargain basement acquisitions. However, with the bargains out there, I thought they’d do a little more.

Matthew LaMar: The Angels could be sneaky good, especially if they cut bait with Albert Pujols and replace him with literally any other human that can play baseball.

National League East

Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Patrick Brennan Nationals Phillies Braves Mets Marlins
Josh Duggan Nationals Mets Phillies Braves Marlins
Alex Duvall Nationals Mets Phillies Braves Marlins
Ryan Heffernon Nationals Phillies Mets Braves Marlins
Hokius Nationals Phillies Braves Mets Marlins
Matthew LaMar Nationals Braves Mets Phillies Marlins
Shaun Newkirk Nationals Mets Phillies Braves Marlins
Max Rieper Nationals Mets Phillies Braves Marlins
Sean Thornton Nationals Phillies Mets Braves Marlins
sterlingice Nationals Mets Phillies Braves Marlins

Reader NL East winner vote: Nationals (91.7%), Braves (3.8%)

National League Central

Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Patrick Brennan Cubs Brewers Cardinals Reds Pirates
Josh Duggan Cubs Brewers Cardinals Reds Pirates
Alex Duvall Cubs Brewers Cardinals Pirates Reds
Ryan Heffernon Cubs Cardinals Brewers Pirates Reds
Hokius Cubs Brewers Cardinals Pirates Reds
Matthew LaMar Cubs Brewers Cardinals Reds Pirates
Shaun Newkirk Cubs Cardinals Brewers Pirates Reds
Max Rieper Cardinals Cubs Pirates Brewers Reds
Sean Thornton Brewers Cubs Cardinals Reds Pirates
sterlingice Cubs Brewers Cardinals Pirates Reds

Reader NL Central winner vote: Cubs (64.7%), Brewers (30.8%), Cardinals (3.8%)

National League West

Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Royals Predictions First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Patrick Brennan Dodgers Giants Rockies Diamondbacks Padres
Josh Duggan Dodgers Rockies Diamondbacks Giants Padres
Alex Duvall Dodgers Rockies Diamondbacks Giants Padres
Ryan Heffernon Dodgers Giants Diamondbacks Rockies Padres
Hokius Dodgers Giants Diamondbacks Rockies Padres
Matthew LaMar Dodgers Diamondbacks Rockies Giants Padres
Shaun Newkirk Dodgers Rockies Giants Diamondbacks Padres
Max Rieper Diamondbacks Dodgers Giants Rockies Padres
Sean Thornton Dodgers Diamondbacks Rockies Giants Padres
sterlingice Dodgers Diamondbacks Rockies Giants Padres

Reader NL West winner vote: Dodgers (83.5%), Diamondbacks (8.3%), Rockies (5.3%)

Reader First Wild Card vote: Cubs (23.4%), Brewers (19.5%), Diamondbacks (18.8%), Cardinals (10.2%), Rockies (10.2), Dodgers (8.6%)

Reader Second Wild Card vote: Cardinals (19.5%), Rockies (18%), Brewers (16.4%), Diamondbacks (14.1%), Phillies (10.2%)

Sean Thornton: I can see the Phillies and Braves playing much better this year and I like the Mets coaching hires. I really like the way the Brewers have built their squad and I can see them having a deep run in the playoffs this year. I’m not sold that Brandon Morrow will work as the Cubs closer, but they can always go out and pick up another arm before the trade deadline this summer.

Max Rieper: I’m not buying the Brewers hype due to their pitching, but they are a franchise on the rise. I think the Diamondbacks are further along than they are and might be ready to take a leap to the top tier of the league, edging out the Dodgers for the division.

Postseason

Royals Predictions ALCS NLCS World Series
Royals Predictions ALCS NLCS World Series
Patrick Brennan Astros over Yankees Cubs over Dodgers Astros over Cubs
Josh Duggan Astros over Indians Nationals over Dodgers Astros over Nationals
Alex Duvall Yankees over Astros Cubs over Dodgers Cubs over Yankees
Ryan Heffernon Indians over Astros Cubs over Nationals Indians over Cubs
Hokius Astros over Yankees Dodgers over Cubs Dodgers over Astros
Matthew LaMar Yankees over Indians Dodgers over Nationals Dodgers over Yankees
Shaun Newkirk Yankees over Astros Dodgers over Cubs Dodgers over Yankees
Max Rieper Indians over Yankees Nationals over Dodgers Nationals over Indians
Sean Thornton Astros over Yankees Nationals over Dodgers Nationals over Astros
sterlingice Indians over Yankees Cubs over Nationals Indians over Cubs

Reader AL Pennant vote: Yankees (34.4%), Astros (32%), Indians (16%), Red Sox (8%), Royals (5.6%)

Reader NL Pennant vote: Nationals (37%), Dodgers (31.5%), Cubs (16.5%), Brewers (7.1%)

Reader World Series champion vote: Yankees (18.4%), Nationals (16.8%), Astros (16%), Dodgers (15.2%), Cubs (7.2%), Royals (5.6%)

sterlingice: All the talk this year is about the ascendant super teams but I’m wondering if it’s not going to be one of the last ones that wins it.

Max Rieper: Someone will end a championship drought this year - either Washington or Cleveland. My money is on the Nats going all-in to do whatever it takes this summer to get over the hump while they still have Bryce Harper.

Awards

Royals Predictions AL MVP NL MVP AL Cy Young NL Cy Young AL Rookie NL Rookie
Royals Predictions AL MVP NL MVP AL Cy Young NL Cy Young AL Rookie NL Rookie
Patrick Brennan Mike Trout, LAA Lorenzo Cain, MIL Chris Sale, BOS Clayton Kershaw, LAD Francisco Mejia, CLE Ronald Acuna, ATL
Josh Duggan Mike Trout, LAA Bryce Harper, WAS Dallas Keuchel, HOU Noah Syndergaard, NYM Francisco Mejia, CLE Ronald Acuna, ATL
Alex Duvall Mike Trout, LAA Bryce Harper, WAS Luis Severino, NYY Clayton Kershaw, LAD Gleyber Torres, NYY Walker Buehler, LAD
Ryan Heffernon Mike Trout, LAA Kris Bryant, CHC Chris Sale, BOS Max Scherzer, WAS Willy Adames, TBR Jack Flaherty, STL
Hokius Jose Altuve, HOU Bryce Harper, WAS Luis Severino, NYY Clayton Kershaw, LAD Shohei Otani, LAA Ronald Acuna, ATL
Matthew LaMar Mike Trout, LAA Bryce Harper, WAS Chris Sale, BOS Clayton Kershaw, LAD Shohei Otani, LAA Ronald Acuna, ATL
Shaun Newkirk Giancarlo Stanton, NYY Bryce Harper, WAS Chris Sale, BOS Clayton Kershaw, LAD Willy Adames, TBR Nick Senzel, CIN
Max Rieper Francisco Lindor, CLE Paul Goldschmidt, ARI Marcus Stroman, TOR Clayton Kershaw, LAD Willie Calhoun, TEX Scott Kingery, PHI
Sean Thornton Mike Trout, LAA Bryce Harper, WAS Marcus Stroman, TOR Jacob deGrom, NYM Eloy Jimenez, CHW Victor Robles, WAS
sterlingice Mike Trout, LAA Kris Bryant, CHC Gerrit Cole, HOU Clayton Kershaw, LAD Shohei Otani, LAA Ronald Acuna, ATL

Reader AL MVP vote: Mike Trout, LAA (39%), Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (14.6%), Jose Altuve, HOU (14.6%), Aaron Judge, NYY (6.5%), Carlos Correa, HOU (6.5%)

Reader NL MVP vote: Bryce Harper, WAS (33.9%), Nolan Arenado, COL (14%), Kris Bryant, CHC (11.6%), Joey Votto, CIN (5.8%), Eric Hosmer, SDP (5%)

Reader AL Cy Young vote: Chris Sale, BOS (34.2), Justin Verlander, HOU (12.5%), Corey Kluber, CLE (11.7%), Luis Severino, NYY (6.7%), Danny Duffy, KCR (6.7%)

Reader NL Cy Young vote: Clayton Kershaw, LAD (58.3%), Max Scherzer, WAS (18.3%), Noah Syndergaard, NYM (9.2%)

Reader AL Rookie of the Year vote: Shohei Otani, LAA (28.7%), Gleyber Torres, NYY (11.5%), A.J. Puk, OAK (7.4%), Michael Kopech, CHW (7.4%), Miguel Andujar, NYY (5.7%)

Reader NL Rookie of the Year vote: Ronald Acuna, ATL (43.4%), Scott Kingery, PHI (13.1%), Victor Robles, WAS (7.4%), Lewis Brinson, MIA (6.6%).

Ryan Heffernon: Somehow, Kris Bryant was forgotten about last season, along with Anthony Rendon. That’s not to say he should have won, but he was not the seventh best player in the National League. The Cubs will win the NL Central again and make a deep postseason run on Bryant’s back.

Max Rieper: I’m probably being too contrarian with my MVP votes, as Trout and Harper should be overwhelming favorites. I think Ronald Acuna will lose Rookie of the Year votes because he doesn’t wear his hat straight, while Scott Kingery is a gritty gamer.

Sean Thornton: I will guess Trout until he actually shows a decline. He has a tendency to work on something new each year, so I’m interested to see what it is this year.

Matthew LaMar: Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. Clayton Kershaw wins my preseason Cy Young vote. I’m a simple man.

Share your predictions below!