The 2018 prediction thread

Predictions are typically fun to do before the year, but this year MLB predictions seem, well, predictable. About 10-12 teams have decided to pretty much go cheap rebuild and sit this year out, and at the other end of the spectrum, 6-8 teams looks like All-Star teams assembled by Springfield Nuclear Plant owner C. Montgomery Burns. So it may be pretty tempting to just project everything that happened last year to repeat itself this year. Time is a flat circle, after all.

But hold up a sec, if a plucky little Jesuit college in Chicago can best the big boys and reach the Final Four powered by the prayers of a 98-year nun, then anything can happen. The unpredictability of sports is a big reason why we love them. And just when you think you have the season figured out, there is typically a plot twist you didn’t see coming. The Giancarlo Stanton trade was actually a dream! Jose Altuve was actually dead the entire time! “Rosebud” was actually the name of the Dodgers closer!

Here are the predictions from the Royals Review writing staff. You can see how badly we did last year. I also solicited responses in a poll among readers, with well over 100 of you giving your equally wrong predictions, (you can see more detailed charts of the responses here). Let’s start with the Royals.

sterlingice: Anything from 85 to 65 wins wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t think this team will be in contention except maybe after whatever their biggest hot streak of the season. But I also don’t expect the familiar mid-00s “20 games out by mid-May” quite this season.

Matthew LaMar: Hear me out: Moustakas and Merrifield are going to have higher WAR, but both are likely to end the season on a different team. Bonifacio has an 80-game suspension. Soler is a wild card. Perez has played fewer and fewer games every year since 2014. And Gordon had 1.3 WAR in only 128 games as recently as 2016.

Hokius: Danny Duffy is just too good to miss this. Jake Junis will come in second with a very solid season, though. Karns will be third because he’ll be even more injured than Duffy.

Reader vote:

Reader position WAR leader vote: Whit Merrifield (63.6%), Salvador Perez (17.4%), Mike Moustakas (15.2%)

Reader pitcher WAR leader vote: Danny Duffy (47.4%), Jakob Junis (34.6%), Nate Karns (9%), Ian Kennedy (4.5%)

How about the standings? Bold indicates Wild Card.

Reader AL East winner vote: Yankees (78.2%), Red Sox (20.3%)

Reader AL Central winner vote: Indians (78.9%), Twins (15.8%), Royals (4.5%)

Reader AL West winner vote: Astros (95.5%), Angels (3.8%)

Reader AL First Wild Card vote: Red Sox (62.6%), Yankees (12.2%), Twins (8.4%),

Reader AL Second Wild Card vote: Angels (26.2%), Twins (24.6%), Royals (10.8%)

sterlingice: The top 4 teams in the AL are as cut and dry as I can ever remember. I’m just going to be lazy, pretend Shohei Ohtani will be good, and go with the easy Angels prediction for the second Wild Card, never mind that the team seems to be just missing something in the current incarnation. As for other teams, the Jays confuse me - I think they’re trying one more go round with some bargain basement acquisitions. However, with the bargains out there, I thought they’d do a little more.

Matthew LaMar: The Angels could be sneaky good, especially if they cut bait with Albert Pujols and replace him with literally any other human that can play baseball.

Reader NL East winner vote: Nationals (91.7%), Braves (3.8%)

Reader NL Central winner vote: Cubs (64.7%), Brewers (30.8%), Cardinals (3.8%)

Reader NL West winner vote: Dodgers (83.5%), Diamondbacks (8.3%), Rockies (5.3%)

Reader First Wild Card vote: Cubs (23.4%), Brewers (19.5%), Diamondbacks (18.8%), Cardinals (10.2%), Rockies (10.2), Dodgers (8.6%)

Reader Second Wild Card vote: Cardinals (19.5%), Rockies (18%), Brewers (16.4%), Diamondbacks (14.1%), Phillies (10.2%)

Sean Thornton: I can see the Phillies and Braves playing much better this year and I like the Mets coaching hires. I really like the way the Brewers have built their squad and I can see them having a deep run in the playoffs this year. I’m not sold that Brandon Morrow will work as the Cubs closer, but they can always go out and pick up another arm before the trade deadline this summer.

Max Rieper: I’m not buying the Brewers hype due to their pitching, but they are a franchise on the rise. I think the Diamondbacks are further along than they are and might be ready to take a leap to the top tier of the league, edging out the Dodgers for the division.

Reader AL Pennant vote: Yankees (34.4%), Astros (32%), Indians (16%), Red Sox (8%), Royals (5.6%)

Reader NL Pennant vote: Nationals (37%), Dodgers (31.5%), Cubs (16.5%), Brewers (7.1%)

Reader World Series champion vote: Yankees (18.4%), Nationals (16.8%), Astros (16%), Dodgers (15.2%), Cubs (7.2%), Royals (5.6%)

sterlingice: All the talk this year is about the ascendant super teams but I’m wondering if it’s not going to be one of the last ones that wins it.

Max Rieper: Someone will end a championship drought this year - either Washington or Cleveland. My money is on the Nats going all-in to do whatever it takes this summer to get over the hump while they still have Bryce Harper.

Reader AL MVP vote: Mike Trout, LAA (39%), Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (14.6%), Jose Altuve, HOU (14.6%), Aaron Judge, NYY (6.5%), Carlos Correa, HOU (6.5%)

Reader NL MVP vote: Bryce Harper, WAS (33.9%), Nolan Arenado, COL (14%), Kris Bryant, CHC (11.6%), Joey Votto, CIN (5.8%), Eric Hosmer, SDP (5%)

Reader AL Cy Young vote: Chris Sale, BOS (34.2), Justin Verlander, HOU (12.5%), Corey Kluber, CLE (11.7%), Luis Severino, NYY (6.7%), Danny Duffy, KCR (6.7%)

Reader NL Cy Young vote: Clayton Kershaw, LAD (58.3%), Max Scherzer, WAS (18.3%), Noah Syndergaard, NYM (9.2%)

Reader AL Rookie of the Year vote: Shohei Otani, LAA (28.7%), Gleyber Torres, NYY (11.5%), A.J. Puk, OAK (7.4%), Michael Kopech, CHW (7.4%), Miguel Andujar, NYY (5.7%)

Reader NL Rookie of the Year vote: Ronald Acuna, ATL (43.4%), Scott Kingery, PHI (13.1%), Victor Robles, WAS (7.4%), Lewis Brinson, MIA (6.6%).

Ryan Heffernon: Somehow, Kris Bryant was forgotten about last season, along with Anthony Rendon. That’s not to say he should have won, but he was not the seventh best player in the National League. The Cubs will win the NL Central again and make a deep postseason run on Bryant’s back.

Max Rieper: I’m probably being too contrarian with my MVP votes, as Trout and Harper should be overwhelming favorites. I think Ronald Acuna will lose Rookie of the Year votes because he doesn’t wear his hat straight, while Scott Kingery is a gritty gamer.

Sean Thornton: I will guess Trout until he actually shows a decline. He has a tendency to work on something new each year, so I’m interested to see what it is this year.

Matthew LaMar: Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. Clayton Kershaw wins my preseason Cy Young vote. I’m a simple man.

Share your predictions below!