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The Royals are in a rebuilding year, and while they won’t admit it, they’re probably not going to be contenders for the post-season. But in baseball, there’s always hope, right? I mean, few expected the 2014 Royals to win the American League pennant (Bovada had them at 33/1 before the season).
But the odds are certainly stacked against the Royals this year, after losing two of their top hitters, their top starter, and four of their top relievers from a year ago. According to the Bovada Sportsbook, no team in baseball has longer odds to win a championship than the Royals. The rebuilding Royals are tied with the Marlins and Tigers at 500/1 to win it all, meaning if you bet $1 on the Royals, you would win $500 when they hoisted the trophy in October. The oddsmakers like the Astros to repeat as World Champions, and more money has been placed on Houston than any other team, with 21% of all money bet on a repeat.
Odds of winning a World Championship
| Championship odds | Odds | % of $ bet on team |
|---|---|---|
| Championship odds | Odds | % of $ bet on team |
| Houston Astros | 17/4 | 21.83% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 5/1 | 17.16% |
| New York Yankees | 13/2 | 11.54% |
| Chicago Cubs | 15/2 | 10.06% |
| Cleveland Indians | 15/2 | 3.13% |
| Washington Nationals | 9/1 | 3.96% |
| Boston Red Sox | 12/1 | 5.17% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 20/1 | 2.03% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 25/1 | 2.65% |
| New York Mets | 25/1 | 1.34% |
| San Francisco Giants | 25/1 | 4.54% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 30/1 | 1.02% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 30/1 | 2.60% |
| Minnesota Twins | 30/1 | 1.52% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 40/1 | 1.57% |
| Colorado Rockies | 50/1 | 2.15% |
| Seattle Mariners | 75/1 | 0.89% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 150/1 | 1.30% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 150/1 | 0.54% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 175/1 | 0.29% |
| Atlanta Braves | 200/1 | 0.20% |
| Chicago White Sox | 200/1 | 0.48% |
| Oakland Athletics | 200/1 | 0.49% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 200/1 | 0.61% |
| Texas Rangers | 200/1 | 0.82% |
| San Diego Padres | 200/1 | 0.31% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 250/1 | 0.49% |
| Detroit Tigers | 500/1 | 0.49% |
| Kansas City Royals | 500/1 | 0.81% |
| Miami Marlins | 500/1 | 0.29% |
The odds of winning an American League pennant are a little less daunting, with the Royals at 100/1, although only the Tigers are a longer shot than that. Baseball Prospectus has their playoff odds out, and their projections have Bovada as being too optimistic. According to their projections, the Royals are the only team that has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs.
So sure, we knew the Royals likely weren’t winning the World Series this year, but just how successful will they be in the standings? Bovada doesn’t seem high on their odds of having a winning record, projecting the over/under on their final win total to be 71.5. However, that would still put them third in the division, ahead of the Tigers (68.5) and White Sox (68).
Over/under win totals
| Team | O/U Wins |
|---|---|
| Team | O/U Wins |
| Houston Astros | 96.5 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 96.5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 94.5 |
| Cleveland Indians | 94.5 |
| New York Yankees | 94.5 |
| Washington Nationals | 92.5 |
| Boston Red Sox | 91.5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 85.5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 85.5 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 84.5 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 84.5 |
| Minnesota Twins | 82.5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 82 |
| San Francisco Giants | 81.5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 81.5 |
| New York Mets | 81 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 81 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 77.5 |
| Texas Rangers | 77.5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 75.5 |
| Atlanta Braves | 74.5 |
| Oakland Athletics | 74.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 73.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 73 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 73 |
| Kansas City Royals | 71.5 |
| San Diego Padres | 69.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 68.5 |
| Chicago White Sox | 68 |
| Miami Marlins | 64.5 |
What do you think? Are you taking the over or under on that win total? Any other teams you think are sure bets on the over or under?