Takes are precious commodities on the internet these days, and if you have takes that turn out to be wrong, an account like @OldTakesExposed will burn you for ever being wrong about a prediction.
We once lived in a time in which people were free to have their wrong opinions unchallenged, our poor predictions unaccounted for. Today, noted Royals fan Rob Neyer took an old visit down memory lane, and stumbled across this gem from 1999.
Just found some chats I did back in 1999. One fine nugget, on K.C. rookies: "I think Jeremy Giambi's going to be the best hitter among the three prospects, but Carlos Febles will be the best player. Still not sold on Carlos Beltran."— robneyer (@robneyer) May 24, 2018
Rob is certainly far from the only one to be wrong on a Royals player.
Wow, it would have been awfully embarrassing to think that Jeremy Giambi was going to be a star like his brother. Fortunately I would NEVER have said such a thing.— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) May 24, 2018
<Immediately scrubs everything I’ve ever written from the internet> https://t.co/2Cz5avum7Q
There were Royals prospects we thought were sure things, and there were players we hated on that turned out to be gems.
And so, those are the four guys — and you probably notice the same thing I do: There are no potential stars in the group. Not one. Oh, someone like Cain could emerge as a star, but it would be a surprise.
-Joe Posnanski, on the Zack Greinke trade
Joe also hated the Michael Tucker for Jermaine Dye trade, as did I. Tucker had one of the sweeter swings you have ever seen. Even after he was moved off second (a decision I was against), I thought he could be a terrific top of the order hitter that could win batting titles. Dye, on the other hand, seemed like a flash in the pan who had a nice run late in the year for a Braves contender. He was a free swinger with pop, but he whiffed a lot.
Michael Tucker went on to have a decent enough career - 12 years in the big leagues, although just 8.1 rWAR. Jermaine Dye would become a two-time All-Star, a Gold Glover, a World Series MVP worth over 20 rWAR in his 14-year career. Shows what I know.
It wasn’t just Tucker that failed to meet my expectations. Dan Reichert, Mark Quinn, Angel Berroa, Jeremy Affeldt, Justin Huber, Joey Gathright, Kila Kaaihue, and Kyle Zimmer were all players I thougt could become future All-Stars. On the flip side, I thought Whit Merrifield was a AAAA player, an unsustinable success who would fizzle out, and yet he has a perfectly respectable 103 OPS+ in 273 big league games and has been worth 6.8 rWAR.
Projecting players is hard business. Who were you the most wrong about? What was a player you believed in that never panned out? Who were you down on that proved you wrong?