100 losses does not doom a franchise

The Royals have hit the 100-loss mark plateau for the fifth time in franchise history, and the first since 2006, Dayton Moore’s first year in Kansas City. Having a 100-loss season stinks, there is no getting around that, but the Royals have played reasonably well down the stretch with a core of young players like Adalberto Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn, and Brad Keller that is sure to give fans some hope in an otherwise gloomy season.

But if you needed more reason to be optimistic, consider that a 100-loss season does not necessarily doom a franchise to years of losing baseball. Rany Jazayerli of The Athletic took a look at how 100-loss teams fare over the next few subsequent years and found that “teams that lost 100-plus games were more likely to have a winning season within three years (45 percent) or five years (70 percent) than teams that lost 92-93 games (44 percent and 56 percent, respectively).”

I took a look at the 23 teams that have lost 100 or more games since 2000 but before this season and found that all but six improved the next season. That shouldn’t be too big of a surprise, since 100 losses is quite an outlier and you can expect terrible teams to experience a “dead cat bounce.” Three of the teams actually experienced winning seasons the next year, although all three - the 2003 Royals, the 2009 Mariners, and the 2017 Twins - seem a bit fluky as the franchise sank back their losing ways.

Most teams, however, weren’t a winning team the next season, or even the year after that. But by year three, many were on their way to contention. Of the 23 teams with 100-losses since 2000, nine of them had a winning season in the third year after that terrible season - six of those were in the playoffs.

There are a few repeat teams in here, so you can see that 100-loss teams can be mired in the muck for quite awhile. Some teams use that time to build towards a contender - the recent Astros clubs, the 2008-09 Nationals built the core that would win the first of four division titles in 2012, and the 2002-03 Tigers that improved dramatically enough to be in the World Series by 2006. But some franchises could not rescue themselves from irrelevance - the early 2000s Devil Rays, the 2004-2006 Royals, and the 2008-2010 Mariners.

How can the Royals make sure they are one of the teams building towards something rather than spinning their wheels? The farm system is likely to be a big factor in their rebuild. Here is how the farm systems of 100-loss teams were ranked by Baseball America before their bad season, after the season, and the first-round pick they netted the following June for losing 100 games.

The Royals’ farm system was ranked second-worst in MLB by Baseball America before the season, and despite some improvements was still ranked just 26th in their mid-season update. The early 2000s Royals also suffered from poor farm systems, making it difficult to escape the cellar. The 2002-03 Tigers had a mediocre-to-poor farm system, but they spent money on free agents like Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez, and Kenny Rogers to get back to relevance.

The 2008-09 Nationals also had a dismal farm system, but that was helped immensely by back-to-back #1 overall picks, used to take Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Losing a lot of games nets you a high draft pick, and while there is no guarantee it will pan out, 100-loss teams have a fair shot at landing a legitimate All-Star caliber-player, if not an outright superstar. Strasburg and Harper, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Kris Bryant, and Carlos Correa were all a big part of their club’s rise from also-ran to playoff team in three years.

This was a rough year for Royals fans, but perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel. While perhaps the goal of competing by 2020, as owner David Glass has suggested, is going to be difficult, it is not unrealistic to think a 100-loss team can be a contender just three years later, meaning the Royals could be in contention by 2021. That will mean carefully building around the young players impressing this year, dramatically improving the state of the farm system, and nailing next year’s first-round pick. Hopefully Dayton Moore is up to the task and we won’t see the Royals making more appearances on this list.