FanPost

Why the Royals should be "in" on Machado.

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Hi all. This started as a comment on another article, but I realized that it could easily be a fanpost, so figured I'd make it a fanpost.

First,a crazy idea. What if the Royals could sign one of the top Free Agents in their prime, and not hamstring their payroll moving forward? I know that sounds like a crazy idea, but hear me out.

Manny Machado is good. Not just good, but really, really good. Since 2015 he's been the 9th most valuable position player by fWAR, only 2 wins behind 3rd place (it's pretty tightly grouped 13-3). On top of that, he's only 26. On top of THAT, he plays a position of need for the Royals, 3rd base (I know he wants to play Short Stop, and perhaps that would keep him from considering the Royals, but I think money talks).

I'll get it out of the way. Machado doesn't fit the Royals narrative. He seems to have some issues on the field, and doesn't always "play the game the right way". I could point out to you instances of players you love doing similar things (more so in the 70's and 80's... I'm looking at you George), but that's not really the point of this post. In fact, it's quite the opposite.

The point is that regardless of the fact that he sometimes exhibits behavior that most of us don't approve of, he's still a generational talent in his prime. Keep in mind he debuted shortly after turning 20 (2012) against the Royals and hit 3 home runs in his first series (2 off Hoch and 1 off Bruce Chen... those were the days). Since then he's amassed 30.2 fWAR. I'm terrible at using data and fangraphs, and wish I had resources to help me, but from what I can see that makes him the 43rd most valuable 26 year old since the dead-ball era. Even if this is wrong, or seems somewhat unimpressive, the point stands that this is a player who is one of the best in the game, who plays a position of need for the Royals, and who I am about to argue, the Royals can afford.

So enough about Machado. You know he's good, and you probably already have an opinion of him formed no one would be able to dissuade you from (after all, "You're right and your argument totally changed my mind" is something that no one has said on the internet, ever). What can the Royals offer him to try and entice him to our team?

Let's start with what we know. Supposedly the White Sox offered Machado 7 years/175 million. Estimates for him this offseason have ranged all over the place, but everyone seems to think that 8-10 years, 200-300 million is where he will eventually fall. Of course, 300 million is all but out of the picture now, and 10 years is perhaps unlikely. Still, that's a lot of money.

Using Cots Payroll projections, which appears to be up-to-date as it includes Whits extension, we see the Royals have the following payroll commitments:

2019: 88.34 million
2020: 61.61 million
2021: 36.45 million
2022: 2.75 million (Whits final year)
2023: .75 million (Whits buyout, only here for completeness's sake)

The Royals opening day payroll last season was about 123 million, and the Royals claim their break-even point is about 115 million.

With all of these figures in mind, what kind of offer can the Royals make to Machado to potentially entice him to their organization, while also maintaining at least some payroll flexibility, particularly in the early 2020's when they hope to be contending?

My answer? 10 years, 240 million (mutual option for the 11th year, GMDM special, of course)

The breakdown would be as follows:

2019: 32 million (est. payrol: 130 million)
2020: 30 million (est. payroll: 91.6 million
2021: 30 million (est. payroll: 66.4 million)
2022: 25 million
2023: 23 million
2024: 20 million
2025: 20 million
2026: 20 million
2027: 18 million
2028: 17 million
2029: 15 million (mutual option: 5 million buy-out)

I would expect by front-loading this so heavily you would not want to include opt-outs.

This hampers our ability to get other free-agent talent in the 2020 off-season, but looking ahead to that free agent class it doesn't look all that inspiring. This instantly improves your team about 5 wins (estimated WAR for Machado next season, give or take a few %) and if the over/under for the Royals next season is 69.5 as reported, it would move us that much closer to .500.

Why it's good for the fans:

This gives the team a legitimate super-star player to go out and see every day. Putting him in the middle of the line-up will improve the offense, and win you more games. I like watching baseball where my team is more likely to win.

Why it's good for the Front Office/Ownership:

More butts in the seats. Maybe you take a loss in 2019 on your bottom-line, but you're showing your fan-base that you care about fielding a competitive team, and that you're serious about contending in the near future.

Why it's good for the team:

This gives you a player who will be very good for years. It takes pressure off of other players to be the in-game leader, or carry the team offensively. Also there doesn't really appear to be a 3rd basemen of the future anywhere in our system, so it's not like you're blocking anybody. Sure, it pushes Dozier off the team or into the outfield mess, but we're talking generational talent in Machado. Dozier is a full year older and hasn't been even an average player yet.

Why it might be bad:

Well, first is the cost. You're guaranteeing a LOT of money, and anybody can get injured. Machado has also had a few down years where he was simply an above average player, not a super-star. There's a chance he starts to decline early, and you're stuck with his contract for a long time.

There's also the fact that he has some attitude problems. Perhaps being surrounded by an atmosphere like the Royals have would help to temper some of that, perhaps it would breed bad-blood in the clubhouse.

This entire post is mostly moot. There is zero chance the Royals make a move on Machado, but the point is that they could, and the fact that they have it within their payroll to do so and aren't is something I think we as fans should be concerned about. We spent 3 million on Owings, 5 million on Hamilton; that's money we could have put towards Machado, moved Dozier into the OF conversation without muddying the waters, and had Whit around to cover 3rd with Machado available for SS if Mondesi is injured/needs rest. But here we are.

The Royals aren't going to be good this season (I mean, I hope they are... I hope O'Hearn is the second coming of Barry Bonds and Mondesi is Lindor and Whit is worth 5 wins and Dozier is good and Jorge Soler is healthy and Gordon bounces back and Junis/Keller/Lopez all take a step forward and Duffy pitches 200 innings and Salvy hits 30 bombs and Lovelady/Peralta/Stautmount/Zimmer/et al become the 2014/2015 back-end bullpen and Hamilton hits .250 and...) and probably not next season, or even the season after that. But having a talent like Machado on hand would only help move forward the rebuild.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.