The Royals pack their bags and head to Detroit for their second trip of the season to face the Tigers before the Tigers have even visited Kansas City. Very rude. After getting swept in Detroit last month, the Tigers have a bit of a different look to them, but are still hanging roughly around .500 because of quality pitching that is probably a bit surprising. It’s definitely not their offense keeping them in the middle of the pack as they rank in the bottom third of the league in pretty much every category and they’re without one of their best producers, Chrsitin Stewart, who is out for at least a couple more weeks. Of course, a boost to the offense might have arrived with Josh Harrison going on the IL. He’s been worse than Chris Owings. My guess is the pitching drops off at some point and the offense probably doesn’t get much better, so things will likely end ugly in Motown, but they’ve had a decent start at least to enjoy for the timebeing.

Meet the Tigers

Projected Pitching Matchups

Matthew Boyd has flashed potential before, but not quite like this in the past. And yes, it’s only six starts, but it sure looks like he’s put it all together for the Tigers. He sort of famously has revamped his slider and it is beastly now. He has a 50 percent whiff rate, 33.3 percent putaway rate adn has allowed a .188 average and .313 slugging percentage with 10 strikeouts on it so far this season. His slider was great last season too, but it’s on another level in terms of swing and miss this year. Even crazier is the swing and miss on his fastball with a 39.5 percent whiff rate (17.8 percent last year) and 39.1 percent putaway rate (16.4 percent last year). He’s been hell on lefties with a .154/.241/.192 line allowed. Oh and while most pitchers get worse as the game goes on, he’s allowed a .108/.195/.216 line the third time through the order. Yes, small sample and that’ll probably go up, but that’s very impressive.

For Jorge Lopez, he’s coming off a rough one where he was given six runs in the bottom of the third and then couldn’t get out of the top of the fourth against the Angels. That’s not a great look for a guy trying to find footing in a starting rotation for the long-term. Of course, you know my thoughts on that. His curveball can be so good and his fastball also looks so good at times that a pass against this Tigers lineup is one that can make a guy like Lopez look really good if he’s on, but it’s also really telling if he’s not and he struggles against a rough lineup. And just to keep you updated, here’s his times through the order update:

1st time: .188/.278/.292

2nd time: .271/.352/.542

3rd time: .406/.429/.875

Tyson Ross returns from the paternity list to make this start. He’s been a pretty successful reclamation signing for the Tigers to this point, but he’s overperformed a bit on his ERA given that he’s not striking many hitters, has walked too many and hasn’t been all that tough to hit. Still, 29 innings of a 4.03 ERA is worth applause even if there is a bit of a slip coming. He has been up and down to this point with some solid starts, including a great one against the Royals in early April and some less than, such as against the Red Sox in his last start when he gave up four runs on seven hits in five innings. He used to be a hard thrower with some ridiculous movement, but now he lives in the upper-80s with his fastballs and his slider has been essentially useless this year with just a 9.1 percent whiff rate. Ultimately, like mentioned above, this story probably ends poorly, but his slider was deadly against the Royals a month ago, so maybe he can recreate that in this one.

Homer Bailey at least finished strong in his last start after starting poorly. He ended up going six innings and gave up four runs, which is pretty much what you’re okay with when he starts, i woudl think. He didn’t walk anybody, which was a nice turnaround from his previous start when he couldn’t throw a strike basically and didn’t get out of the second inning. His splitter has been deadly at times, but not so good of late. If it’s on, he has a chance to dominate this Tigers lineup, but if not, their solid hitters are going to have a field day because they have just enough that if he’s leaving balls out over the plate, they’ll do damage.

Spencer Turnbull has been a fantastic story for the Tigers. He finally made it to AAA last season and made just two starts and then made the team out of spring training, mostly because of how thin the Tigers were in the rotation with the Michael Fulmer injury. He’s gotten strikeouts, limited hits, done well enough with walks and has given a few innings for this rotation. He doesn’t throw all that hard, but he has a good spin rate and that allows him to get some weak contact. His four-seamer hasn’t been great for him, but he’s made up for it quite well with a quality sinker and a cutter that’s been murder on opponents. He struck out 10 Royals back on April 4th, and has been really quite excellent in almost all his start since then, so I guess we’ll see if he can keep it up in this one.

Brad Keller is just walking too many hitters. He’s limited hits incredibly well this season, but since walking just one on Opening Day, he’s walked at least three hitters every game this season. Now, he’s been successful at times, but his pitch count is too elevated because of the control issues and he’s not even getting a bunch of swings and misses as a result of leaving the strike zone. Whatever he’s doing simply isn’t working and he needs to make an adjustment or he might go back into the future reliever category among current Royals pitchers. Not to keep harping on this, but the Tigers lineup might be the fix he needs. And if it isn’t, that says something about him, I believe. The Rays have a good and patient lineup and that’s led to a 7.94 ERA for Keller in his last two starts that were both against them, but he needs to turn it around and fast. He did go six against the Tigers last month and gave up three runs on five hits with three strikeouts and three walks, but even that is pretty lackluster.

Prediction

Two bad teams tussling under the dim lights of Detroit should be enough to get anyone excited. How this series turns out likely depends fully on which Homer Bailey the Royals get, and he did look better over his last few innings against the Rays the other day. I’m going to go optimistic on this one and say the Royals snag two of three. What say you?