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Braves Series Preview: A franchise that locks up young talent to long-term contracts

The Braves are a franchise to envy.

Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

It’s contract extension season! The Giants just locked up ace pitcher Logan Webb to a five-year deal, following the lead of the Atlanta Braves who have committed to several young playes recently. Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and Michael Harris II are all signed through 2026, ensuring the Braves will have their young core for the next few seasons.

The Braves have jumped out to a 9-4 start, sweeping the Cardinals and Reds already this year. They return much of the offense that finished third in all of baseball in runs scored last year, although they are missing Harris due to injury. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is also out as is starting shortstop Orlando Arcia, but that might actually help the offense as the Braves have recalled offense-minded shortstop Vaughn Grissom up to replace him.

The Braves finished second in baseball with 243 home runs last year, and they have four sluggers capable of hitting 30 home runs this year with Acuña, Olson, Riley, and designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. But they’re not a plodding team either, they have young athletic players that can run the bases well and get some steals. Defensively, they were 11th in the league in Defensive Runs Saved last year, which should be boosted by the addition of catcher Sean Murphy, one of the best pitch-framers in baseball.

All statistics from 2022.

Braves expected starting lineup and bench

Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R) 533 15 29 .266 .351 .413 2.1
1B Matt Olson (L) 699 34 0 .240 .325 .477 3.1
3B Austin Riley (R) 693 38 2 .273 .349 .528 5.5
C Sean Murphy (R) 612 18 1 .250 .332 .426 5.1
LF Eddie Rosario (L) 270 5 3 .212 .259 .328 -1.1
2B Ozzie Albies (S) 269 8 3 .247 .294 .409 1.1
DH Marcell Ozuna (R) 507 23 2 .226 .274 .413 -0.5
SS Vaughn Grissom (R) 156 5 5 .291 .353 .440 0.7
CF Sam Hilliard (L) 200 2 5 .184 .280 .264 -0.6
Bench PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Chadwick Tromp (R) 4 0 0 .750 .750 1.250 0.2
IF Ehire Adrianza (S) 110 0 1 .175 .264 .206 -0.5
OF Kevin Pillar (R) 13 0 0 .083 .154 .167 0.0
OF Eli White (R) 117 3 12 .200 .274 .305 0.9

Charlie Morton throws a curve more than any starting pitcher in the game, and it’s one of the league’s best. The 39-year old right-hander also throws sinkers to yield a groundball rate near 50 percent. Young Bryce Elder did not allow a run in his first two starts, going over six innings each time. The former fifth-round pick barely throws 90 mph, but has good sinking action and relies heavily on a plus slider. Kyle Wright had a breakout season last year with a mid-90s fastball that features good movement and gets a lot of groundballs.

All statistics from 2022.

Expected pitching matchups

Friday, April 14 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Friday, April 14 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Charlie Morton 4.34 4.26 172 10.7 3.3 1.5
RHP Brady Singer 3.23 3.58 153.1 8.8 2.1 2.9
Saturday, April 15 - 3:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Bryce Elder 3.17 3.78 54.0 7.8 3.8 0.8
LHP Kris Bubic 5.58 4.78 129.0 7.7 4.4 0.5
Sunday, April 16 - 1:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Kyle Wright 3.19 3.58 180.1 87 2.7 2.9
RHP Zack Greinke 3.68 4.03 137.0 4.8 1.8 1.9

The Braves are without closer Raisel Iglesias and have cobbled together a bullpen full of injury risks. Nick Anderson was dominant with the Rays when healthy, but missed all of last year after elbow surgery. Kirby Yates is a former All-Star that has struggled to get back on track since getting Tommy John surgery in 2021. Michael Tonkin hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2017, taking detours to the independent Atlantic League and the Mexican League before the Braves signed him last year. So far, it has worked - Braves relievers collectively have a 3.17 ERA, but their 4.12 FIP my suggest some regression soon.

All statistics from 2022.

Braves bullpen

Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
LHP A.J. Minter 2.06 2.13 70.0 12.1 1.9 2.1
RHP Joe Jiménez 3.49 2.00 56.2 12.2 2.1 1.4
LHP Dylan Lee 2.13 2.66 50.2 10.5 1.8 1.1
RHP Nick Anderson - - 0.0 - - -
RHP Kirby Yates 5.14 7.26 7.0 7.7 6.4 -0.2
RHP Jesse Chavez 3.76 3.39 69.1 9.6 2.6 0.7
RHP Michael Tonkin - - 0.0 - - -
LHP Lucas Luetge 2.67 3.03 57.1 9.4 2.7 0.9
LHP Danny Young 4.26 4.22 6.1 8.5 2.8 0.0

The Braves are still a model organization with a superior player development system plus the resources necessary to retain their talent. They won a title in 2021, won 101 games last year, and should be a leading contender again this year. The Royals can only hope they catch the Braves looking ahead to their next series against fellow National League contender San Diego.

Poll

How will the Royals fare against the Braves in this series?

This poll is closed

  • 3%
    Royals sweep 3-0
    (7 votes)
  • 13%
    Royals take 2 of 3
    (25 votes)
  • 42%
    Braves take 2 of 3
    (82 votes)
  • 40%
    Braves sweep
    (77 votes)
191 votes total Vote Now