Diamondbacks series preview: A lineup that walks less than the Royals

The Diamondbacks made the playoffs in 2017, but have been in the wilderness since, bottoming out with 110 losses in 2021. They improved by 22 wins last year, and are 12-11 to begin this year with a mix of players young and old.

The young players include outfielder Corbin Carroll, who the team signed to a lucrative eight-year, $111 million deal after just 32 games in the big leagues. The former first-round pick brings an attractive power/speed combo that could make him a 30/30 player, and he is already third in the league with eight steals this year in eight attempts. Former second-round pick Alek Thomas joins him in the outfield, but he has struggled in 134 big league games with a line of .225/.272/.346. Arizona also acquired catcher Gabriel Moreno, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, in a deal with the Blue Jays last off-season for young outfielder Daulton Varsho. Moreno has hit .288 so far this year, but has drawn just one walk and hasn’t hit for power yet.

The old players include first baseman Christian Walker, who was fourth in the league in home runs last year and is one of the best in baseball at barreling up. Versatile All-Star Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also came over in the Blue Jays trade, and Ketel Marte continues to be a solid option as second base. Veteran All-Star Evan Longoria was added as a free agent, but is in more of a reserve role with the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks are free swingers - they are the only team to walk less than the Royals. Unlike the Royals, they make a lot of contact - only the Nationals have a higher contact rate. Overall they’ve been near league-average with 4.78 runs per game.

All statistics from 2022.

With Zach Davies injured and Madison Bumgarner designated for assignment last week, the Diamondbacks have gotten younger in their rotation. Lefty Tommy Henry will be called up to make his MLB season debut on Monday despite some rough numbers in four starts at Triple-A this year. He only throws in the low-90s with control issues - not a good combination.

Former second-round pick Ryne Nelson had three excellent starts last year, but has a 4.91 ERA and 5.51 FIP this year with a low strikeout rate of 15.4%. He brings a 94 mph fastball and relies heavily on a slider with an occasional changeup. Zac Gallen was 14th among all starting pitchers in fWAR last year, posting a scoreless streak of 44 ¹⁄₃ innings during the summer. This year he has a 2.59 ERA and is eighth among starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Royals have not officially announced a starter for the last game of the series, but Ryan Yarbrough seems like a good bet after serving as a long reliever in place of Kris Bubic last week.

All statistics from 2022.

Arizona’s bullpen has the second-worst FIP in baseball at 5.38 with the fifth-highest walk rate and the second-highest home run rate. Free agent Andrew Chafin has taken over closer duties after serving as a lefty specialist the last few seasons, and he has been solid as has lefty reliever Kyle Nelson and free agent Miguel Castro. Scott McGough, a 33-year old the Diamondbacks brought in after four years in Japan, has struggled.

All statistics from 2022.

The Diamondbacks are not clearly in a rebuild, nor clearly in contention, but they seem to be having some moderate success so far. Mixing in young players with established starters has given them more leeway in development, and allowed them to emphasize winning a bit more than a team in total rebuild. But this is a team that is similar to the Royals in many ways, with free-swinging hitters, inconsistent young pitchers, and a shaky bullpen.