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Toronto Blue Jays series preview: Whit returns to the K

How will Royals fans respond?

Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images

The Blue Jays have amassed a nice collection of young hitters, and have surrounded young ace Alek Manoah with a veteran rotation, helping them win 90+ games the last two seasons. They’ll have higher expectations this season, hoping to win their first post-season game since 2016. It will be their first full season under skipper John Schneider, who took over mid-season from Charlie Montoyo last year. The team responded with a .628 winning percentage under his guidance in the second half.

The Jays dropped two of three in St. Louis to begin the year, allowing 23 runs to the Cardinals, and getting out-homered 6-0. Toronto’s big off-season acquisition was outfielder Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks for catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. They also supplemented the lineup with veteran first baseman Brandon Belt and centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier. Former Royals All-Star Whit Merrifield returns to start at second base.

All statistics from 2022.

Blue Jays starting lineup and bench

Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
RF George Springer (R) 583 25 14 .267 .342 .472 4.2
SS Bo Bichette (R) 697 24 13 .290 .333 .469 4.5
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 706 32 8 .274 .339 .480 2.8
LF Daulton Varsho (L) 592 27 16 .235 .302 .443 4.7
C Alejandro Kirk (R) 541 14 0 .285 .372 .415 3.8
DH Brandon Belt (L) 298 8 1 .213 .326 .350 0
3B Matt Chapman (R) 621 27 2 .229 .324 .433 4.1
2B Whit Merrifield (R) 550 11 16 .250 .298 .375 1.5
CF Kevin Kiermaier (L) 221 7 6 .228 .281 .369 1.1
Bench PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Danny Jansen (R) 248 15 1 .260 .339 .516 2.6
IF Santiago Espinal (R) 491 7 6 .267 .322 .370 2.3
IF Cavan Biggio (L) 303 6 2 .202 .318 .350 1.3
OF Nathan Lukes (L) 0 0 0 - - - -

The Blue Jays acquired José Berríos from the Twins in the summer of 2021, but he was a disaster for them last year. His four-seamer was hit hard, which may cause him to rely more on his sinker this year. Yusei Kikuchi is also coming off a rough season which saw a career-high strikeout rate but also a career-high walk rate. The southpaw is pretty tough on lefty hitters, relying a lot on his slider.

Alek Manoah has absolutely dominated the Royals in three career starts, giving up just one run in 20 innings of work. He struggled in his Opening Day assignment, allowing nine hits and two home runs to the 21 hitters he faced. Kevin Gausman gave up three unearned runs in six innings against the Cardinals last week.

All statistics from 2022.

Blue Jays pitching matchups

Monday, April 3 - 6:40 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Monday, April 3 - 6:40 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP José Berríos 5.23 4.55 172.0 7.8 2.4 1.1
RHP Brady Singer 3.23 3.58 153.1 8.8 2.1 2.9
Tuesday, April 4 - 6:40 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
LHP Yusei Kikuchi 5.19 5.62 100.2 11.1 5.2 -0.7
LHP Kris Bubic 5.58 4.78 129.0 7.7 4.4 0.5
Wednesday, April 5 - 6:40 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Alek Manoah 2.24 3.35 196.2 8.2 2.3 4.1
RHP Zack Greinke 3.68 4.03 137.0 4.8 1.8 1.9
Thursday, April 6 - 1:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Kevin Gausman 3.35 2.38 174.2 10.6 1.4 5.7
RHP Jordan Lyles 4.42 4.40 179.0 7.2 2.6 1.4

Toronto’s bullpen had a 3.77 ERA last year, 13th in MLB, with most of the staff returning. Erik Swanson comes over from Seattle after a terrific season where he finished 12th among all relievers in strikeout rate at 34 percent. Closer Jordan Romano was 16th among all relievers in fWAR last year, earning his first All-Star appearance.

All statistics from 2022.

Blue Jays bullpen

Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Jordan Romano 2.11 3.31 64.0 10.3 3.0 1.6
RHP Yimi Garcia 3.10 2.90 61.0 8.6 2.4 0.9
RHP Erik Swanson 1.68 2.30 53.2 11.7 1.7 1.7
RHP Anthony Bass 1.54 3.03 70.1 9.3 2.6 1.3
LHP Tim Mayza 3.14 4.17 48.2 8.1 2.2 0.1
RHP Adam Cimber 2.80 3.64 70.2 7.4 1.7 0.9
RHP Zach Pop 2.77 3.36 39.0 5.8 0.9 0.5
RHP Trevor Richards 5.34 4.62 64.0 11.5 4.9 0.2

The Royals offense has stumbled out of the gate, but they do have a shot against two starters that really struggled last year, and a third pitcher who struggled in his first start. Royals hitters are drawing walks and hitting the ball hard, but with little to show for it so far. Perhaps those hard hits will start finding holes, but the Jays’ lineup is good enough to put up a lot of runs. Will the Royals be able to outslug them?

Poll

How will the Royals fare in their series against the Blue Jays?

This poll is closed

  • 5%
    Royals sweep 3-0
    (10 votes)
  • 22%
    Royals take 2 of 3
    (39 votes)
  • 44%
    Blue Jays take 2 of 3
    (77 votes)
  • 26%
    Blue Jays sweep
    (46 votes)
172 votes total Vote Now