Brewers series preview: The small market pitching factory

The Brewers were once known as an offensive team - “Harvey’s Wallbangers” won a pennant in 1982 by leading the league in runs scored. But recently they have become known as one of the best organizations at developing young pitching, finishing sixth or better in the National League in ERA in six of the last seven seasons. This year they have the third-best ERA, despite only signing one pitcher to a MLB free agent deal (Wade Miley, who signed a one-year, $3.5 million deal).

The Brew Crew reached the post-season every year from 2018 to 2021, but failed to reach the World Series and just missed the playoffs in the last week of the season in 2022, finishing with 86 wins. They got off to a terrific start this year with an 18-9 start, but have dropped 7 of 9 in May to slump to 20-17, a half game behind the first place Pirates before their three-game set against the Royals.

Kansas City Royals (12-27) at Milwaukee Brewers (20-17)

Three games - Friday, May 12; Saturday, May 13; Sunday, May 14 from American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Brewers: 4.35 runs scored/game (17th in MLB), 4.03 runs allowed/game (9th)

Royals: 4.18 runs scored/game (23rd), 5.51 runs allowed/game (28th)

The offense has slumped in May, hitting .224/.287/.354 over the last nine games with just 3.3 runs per game. The Brewers traded for outfielder Jesse Winker and signed first baseman Luke Voit hoping to get some power from them, but the two have combined for exactly zero home runs so far. The team can hit it out of the ballpark however, with slugger Rowdy Tellez off to a good start, and Willie Adames second among all shortstops with seven home runs. They are also tied with the Royals for tenth among all teams in stolen bases with 27. The Brewers have the seventh-highest walk rate and the seventh-highest strikeout rate in baseball.

Corbin Burnes has been one of the better starting pitchers in baseball the last two seasons, but his strikeout rate is down dramatically this year. His velocity is the same, his cutter still cuts, and his curveball still has good downward action, but his command seems to be off. Nevertheless, opponents are hitting just .218/.296/.331 against him, although a low BABIP of .248 suggests some regression may be in order.

Adrian Houser missed the first month of the season with a groin injury, but made his first start earlier this week. He has the second-worst strikeout-to-walk ratio of any starter the last two seasons, but also has one of the highest groundball rates over that time. He brings a 94 mph fastball with a sinker, slider, curve, and a splitter. Freddy Peralta is expected to start Sunday, and he has been Milwaukee’s best pitcher so far. He is 12th in baseball in swinging strikes with a 94 mph fastball, slider, curve, and change up.

Lefty Josh Taylor gets the start for the Royals on Friday in what will likely be a bullpen day in the absence of Ryan Yarbrough.

Brewers relievers have a 3.77 ERA but a 4.60 FIP, and have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate of any bullpen. Closer Devin Williams is still effective, but his velocity is down significantly from when he first came up. Right-hander Peter Strzelecki has one of the best walk rates among all relievers. Brewers relievers have allowed just 24 percent of inherited runners to score, one of the best marks in baseball.

John Sherman pointed to the Brewers as an example of what he wants the Royals to become - a sustainable winner built on pitching development. Milwaukee got off to a fast start, but a recent road trip exposed their hitting woes a bit. Their pitchers could be due for some regression as well, so Royals hitters have a chance to keep up their hot streak.