Thinking about a Vinnie Pasquantino long-term deal

If there has been a bright spot in the Royals’ lineup this year, it has been Vincent Joseph Pasquantino. Playing in his first full season in the big leagues, Vinnie has been the on-base machine and run-producer the Royals have hoped he would be when they selected him in the 11th round of the 2019 draft out of Old Dominion. The “Pasquatch” has hit .257/.342/.469 with 8 home runs in 47 games with the tenth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball, and a team-leading walk rate of 10.5 percent.

But with any talented player that comes through Kansas City, the first though becomes “how long until we lose him?” Pasquantino would not be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season - he would turn 31 after the season - unless the Royals sign him to a long-term deal. Pasquantino was recently asked whether he would be willing to commit to a long-term deal in Kansas City.

“To answer your question directly or to answer that direct question, I’ll say what I said on MLB Radio that I think for every player, you dream of playing for the same team your entire career,” Pasquantino said. “I really enjoy this organization. So on the surface, yes, I’d love to stay here. But there’s way more that goes into it than that. “There has to be want from the other side as well, to want me to be around, so I don’t really know how to answer that, to be honest. Short answer, sure. Yeah, that’d be great. But you know, there’s two sides to that.”

The Hunter Dozier contract was a recent long-term deal the Royals signed that turned out to be a dud, which may give the team pause before committing to another player whose contributions are almost entirely on the offensive side of the game. But there are a few key differences. First, Dozier signed his deal coming off a mediocre season in 2020, having only put together one good season in 2019. His career OPS+ was 106 when he signed his deal, while Vinnie currently has a career OPS+ of 130. Pasquantino has demonstrated much better on-base skills, and walk and strikeout numbers, with a much better minor league track record as well.

Second, there is the matter of age. Dozier was a late bloomer who was nearly 30 when he signed his deal. Pasquantino is still just 25 years old and entering his prime years. I took a look at which first basemen have hit the best in their first two seasons in the big leagues since 2000, and Vinnie compares pretty favorably.

What would it take to sign Pasquantino to a long-term deal? Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs called on the Royals to sign him to a seven-year, $54 million deal, using his ZIPS projection system to predict a productive Vinnie through 2030, when he would be 32, although with eroding power after 2026.

Pasquantino is not a superstar, but the Italian Breakfast has turned out to be the most developed of the team’s hitting prospects. Whit Merrifield is gone, and Salvador Perez is entering his mid-30s, and as the Royals continue to shift away from the last of their World Series winning roster, Pasquantino should spend the next five or six years hitting in the middle of the order. Locking him up now keeps him at a Royals-friendly price throughout his likely prime years.

If the Royals think Pasquantino will be a productive hitter for the next several seasons, now would be the time to lock him up. I took a look at the long-term deals signed to pre-free agent first basemen in the last decade. Clubs that signed a player too early - before he had done anything - typically got burned. Clubs that signed a player too late - once the player had established MVP bona fides - had to pay in excess of $100 million. But teams that signed a player after one good year generally got a very good bargain. Here is the guaranteed money (not counting options and escalators) for recent long-term deals.

*-mid-season service time numbers are estimates

I agree with Dan that a seven-year deal, worth around $7-8 million per years would make the most sense for both sides. You would probably need escalators and maybe a mutual option to make the deal enticing enough for Vinnie. There is still some risk involved - the Royals already have Pasquantino for five more years after this year, with the flexibility to drop him if he gets hurt or craters in performance. A long-term deal removes that flexibility. The only way it makes sense for the Royals is if they get an extra year or two of club control AND they feel he will be productive at that age.

With his plate discipline, it seems like Pasquantino would be a fairly good bet to age well, even is his power erodes a bit in his 30s. But I also don’t blame the Royals if they feel like the risk is not worth it. If Pasquantino’s offensive performance falls off a cliff, he really provides no value to the team. Small market teams can’t afford to carry too many unproductive 30 year old players.

If the Royals want to keep Vinnie in Kansas City, now is the time to do it. He has demonstrated he should have some staying power, but has not yet exploded enough to warrant a mega-deal. Whether or not owner John Sherman is interested in long-term deals remains to be seen.