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Dodgers series preview: The National League behemoth

What do you get when you pair money with brains?

Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

The Dodgers have been a behemoth in the National League, with ten consecutive playoff appearances and three pennants in the last decade, including the 2020 championship. But they have been a little more ordinary this season with the fourth-best record in the National League, and they are looking up in the standings to the upstart first-place Diamondbacks.

It isn’t for a lack of spending - the Dodgers are still fifth in baseball in payroll. But injuries have taken a toll - Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, and Julio Urias have all missed time. But they are also fielding the oldest lineup in baseball, and they may have to re-tool if this season doesn’t end in a World Series appearance.

Los Angeles Dodgers (45-35) vs. Kansas City Royals (23-58) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Dodgers: 5.45 runs scored/game (4th in MLB), 4.18 runs allowed/game (9th)

Royals: 3.72 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 4.67 runs allowed/game (20th)

Despite being 33 years old, Freddie Freeman hasn’t missed a beat. His .943 OPS is currently second in the National League, and he recently collected the 2,000th hit of his career. Veterans Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Will Smith have had terrific seasons, but the club has really struggled with middle infield. Rookie Miguel Vargas and veteran Miguel Rojas have failed to hit, and the team has had to resort to using Taylor and Betts at times in the middle infield.

Overall the Dodgers have hit the second-most home runs and drawn the second-highest walk rate. They are tops in Baserunning Runs, and are stealing bases at an 82 percent success rate.

Dodgers lineup and bench

Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
RF Mookie Betts (R) 353 20 7 .260 .360 .523 3.2
1B Freddie Freeman (L) 366 14 10 .321 .399 .544 3.2
C Will Smith (R) 255 12 1 .283 .404 .502 2.8
3B Max Muncy (L) 262 18 1 .192 .321 .466 1.3
DH J.D. Martinez (R) 274 19 1 .267 .310 .586 1.2
LF David Peralta (L) 200 5 1 .273 .310 .406 0.5
2B Miguel Vargas (R) 283 7 3 .199 .302 .378 0.2
CF James Outman (L) 270 9 8 .235 .319 .416 1.5
SS Miguel Rojas (R) 184 0 5 .235 .277 .282 -0.3
Bench PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Austin Barnes (R) 101 0 2 .101 .198 .124 -1.0
IF Yonny Hernández 7 0 0 .200 .286 .200 0.0
OF Jonny DeLuca (R) 26 0 1 .208 .269 .250 -0.2
OF Jason Heyward (L) 183 8 2 .252 .344 .477 1.4

Pitching has traditionally been a strength for the Dodgers organization, but it has been very mediocre this year. Rookie Bobby Miller got off to an amazing start, allowing just 12 hits and two runs in his first four starts. But he has allowed 13 runs in his last two outings, despite a 99 mph fastball with good sink and a plus slider. Alec Marsh will make his MLB debut for the Royals tonight, armed with a four-seamer and a two-seamer with sink, with a curveball, slider, and change up.

Lefty Julio Urías is expected to return from a hamstring injury and start on Saturday, his first outing since mid-May. His velocity is down significantly and he has one of the highest FIP among starters at 5.30. Tony Gonsolin has also had a velo decline, and despite a decent ERA, has one of the larger differences in ERA and FIP. He has given up 11 runs in his last two starts, but gave up just one run in 6 23 innings in his only career start against the Royals.

Expected pitching matchups

Friday, June 30 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Friday, June 30 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Bobby Miller 4.13 3.46 32.2 8.5 3.6 0.8
RHP Alec Marsh - - 0.0 - - -
Saturday, July 1 - 6:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
LHP Julio Urías 4.39 5.30 55.1 8.6 1.8 0.2
LHP Daniel Lynch 3.96 5.01 36.1 5.9 2.5 0.2
Sunday, July 2 - 1:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Tony Gonsolin 3.30 4.44 57.1 7.2 3.5 0.7
RHP Brady Singer 5.88 4.42 82.2 7.6 3.4 0.8

The bullpen has been the weakest link for the Dodgers with a 4.68 ERA from their relievers, fifth-worst in baseball. Phil Bickford and Evan Phillips - both originally claimed off waivers - are both in the top 20 among relievers in strikeout rate. Curiously, Brusdar Graterol has a low strikeout rate despite featuring one of the fastest heaters in the game.

Dodgers bullpen

Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Evan Phillips 1.97 2.93 32.0 10.4 2.0 0.7
RHP Brusdar Graterol 2.06 2.99 35.0 6.9 1.3 0.7
LHP Caleb Ferguson 3.10 3.62 29.0 9.9 3.4 0.5
RHP Yency Almonte 5.50 4.88 34.1 8.4 3.9 -0.1
LHP Victor González 4.43 3.63 22.1 8.5 2.4 0.2
RHP Phil Bickford 6.46 4.29 30.2 12.9 5.3 0.1
RHP Ryan Brasier 2.08 2.58 4.1 6.2 2.1 0.1
LHP Justin Bruihl 3.93 4.09 18.1 6.4 1.5 0.1

The Dodgers have been very average on the road, going 21-20. They have gone just 11-12 in June, although they have won six of their last eight. They are a veteran-laden team that knows how to win, and you feel like they are poised to go on a hot stretch. Maybe a series with the Royals is just they need to get back to their status as National League favorite.

Poll

How will the Royals fare this series against the Dodgers?

This poll is closed

  • 4%
    Royals sweep 3-0
    (4 votes)
  • 4%
    Royals take 2 of 3
    (4 votes)
  • 35%
    Dodgers take 2 of 3
    (29 votes)
  • 54%
    Dodgers sweep
    (45 votes)
82 votes total Vote Now