Orioles series preview: From pretender to contender

Exactly two years ago, the Baltimore Orioles were 22-39, on their way to 110 losses and their fifth consecutive losing season. Two years later they have the third-best record in the American League, with more help on the way with the top-ranked farm system in baseball. For a franchise that had experienced three 100+ loss seasons in four years and was even rumored to be headed to Nashville, the future in Baltimore suddenly seems bright.

The Orioles jumped off to a great start in April, and have cooled off a bit, dropping seven of their last twelve. They went 2-4 on their last homestand, and have actually been better this year away from Camden Yards. They took two of three from the Royals in Kansas City in early May, scoring double-digit runs in two games, but getting shut out in the middle game of the series.

Kansas City Royals (18-44) vs. Baltimore Orioles (38-24) from Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Royals: 3.82 runs scored/game (27th in MLB), 5.24 runs allowed/game (28th)

Orioles: 4.89 runs scored/game (7th), 4.50 runs allowed/game (16th)

The Orioles are without All-Star outfielder Cedric Mullins, who is out with a groin strain, so they signed former Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks last week. Hicks has been plagued with injuries and hasn’t hit much the last two years in the Bronx, but he’s off to a good start in his first seven games with the Orioles, hitting going 7-for-19 with a home run and four walks. Start catcher Adley Rutschman has been on fire lately, hitting .372/.438/.465 over his last 11 games.

Rookie infielder Gunnar Henderson is really coming around lately, hitting .250/.318/.525 with three home runs in his last 13 games. Former Royals slugger Ryan O’Hearn has been solid in a part-time role. On the flip side, shortstop Jorge Mateo has been in free fall after a hot start, although he has been one of the best defenders at the position.

Tyler Wells has struck out seven or more in each of his last five starts, with two walks or less each time out. He has the eleventh-lowest walk rate in baseball and the best WHIP among qualified pitchers. Kyle Gibson gave up six runs in six innings with no strikeouts in a loss against the Royals earlier this year. He relies on a sinker/slider mix to produce a 44.4 percent groundball rate. Lefty Cole Irvin will be brought back to the big leagues this weekend after a demotion. He has not pitched well since being acquired from the Athletics, with opponents hitting .333/.415/.537 against him.

The Orioles have the fifth-best bullpen ERA in baseball with the second-highest strikeout rate. Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano have been two of the three most valuable relievers in baseball, according to fWAR. Cano has the eighth-lowest walk rate and Bautista has the second-best strikeout-to-walk rate among relievers. Only three members of the Orioles pitching staff are homegrown from the club - Mike Baumann, Keegan Akin, and Nick Vespi.

The Orioles show a path of how a team can turn things around, but the implementation is harder than it looks. With great prospects on the way, the Orioles could become serious contenders for years to come. Their turnaround did not come from big spending or quick fixes, but diligent scouting, smart analytics, and taking advantage of every method of acquiring players, from waivers to minor league free agents to Rule 5 picks. Different teams can take different roads to success, but the Orioles might be a team to learn a lot of lessons from.