Rays series preview: What a way to start the second half!

After a few days to reset their season, the Royals get back to action this weekend looking to improve on the worst first half in club history. They have to finish 30-41 to avoid setting a club record for losses in a season, and they’ll be tested right away by facing off against the best team in the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Royals did manage to split a four-game set with the Rays in St. Petersburg a few weeks ago, and the Rays have played terribly in July, dropping seven out of eight games. In fact, after a hot start, they’ve gone just 29-28 since May 8.

Tampa Bay Rays (58-35) vs. Kansas City Royals (26-65) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Rays: 5.44 runs scored/game (4th in MLB), 3.84 runs allowed/game (1st)

Royals: 3.70 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.48 runs allowed/game (28th)

The Rays are having their best offensive season in franchise history by runs scored. They have hit the most home runs in the AL, stolen the most bases, are second in slugging percentage, third in on-base, and have drawn the third-most walks. Of the twelve Rays hitters with at least 200 plate appearances this year, ten have an OPS+ of 96 or better and seven are at 119 or better.

Outfielder Luke Raley, who was acquired from the Dodgers last March, leads all rookies in wRC+ and slugging percentage. Wander Franco, who was benched for a few games of the Royals series for his temperament, has been the fourth-most valuable position player in baseball, by fWAR. Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena are both among the top ten hitters in baseball in wRC+. Yandy Diaz will miss Friday’s game to see the birth of his son, so the Rays have called up first baseman Jonathan Aranda, who was hitting .342/.455/.589 in Triple-A.

Tyler Glasnow missed the beginning of the season with an oblique injury, but he has been striking hitters out left and right since returning. Among starters with at least 40 innings pitched, only Spencer Strider has a better strikeout rate, and Glasnow has only walked one hitter in each of his last three starts.

Shane McClanahan has been out since the end of June with back tightness, an injury that caused him to leave his start against the Royals on June 22 in the fourth inning. McClanahan is tied for the MLB lead with 11 wins and he is currently third among qualified starters in ERA. His 96 mph fastball is one of the fastest among starters, but his walk rate has spiked up significantly this season.

The Rays have yet to announce a starter for Sunday, but Zach Eflin is the most likely candidate. Tampa Bay is missing Shane Baz, Josh Fleming, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs from the rotation due to injury.

The Rays bullpen has been shakier than the rotation. They are tenth in baseball in ERA at 3.79 but 23rd in FIP at 4.38, worse than the Royals. They have the second-lowest strikeout rate of any bullpen, but with the 11th-highest walk rate. Peter Fairbanks still throws in the high-90s, but his strikeout rate has fallen off, and his walk rate has spiked. The Rays have had to pick up player released from other organizations to fill out their bullpen, like Jake Diekman, Robert Stephenson, Javy Guerra, and Zack Littell. Their relievers allow just 23 percent of inherited runners to score, the third-lowest rate in baseball.

The Rays are a very formidable opponent, but the Royals catch them when they’re not playing well, with one of their top hitters out, and a banged up rotation. They have the confidence of playing toe-to-toe with them a few weeks ago, and can use the All-Star break as a bit of a reset to try to forget the ugly first half. Still, the Rays are a supremely talented team. The second half doesn’t seem any easier than the first.