Guardians series preview: Rookies can be good starting pitchers

The Guardians have won five of seven against the Royals this year, but still find themselves flailing around .500 and currently with a losing record. With the Twins starting to break away a bit, Cleveland will need to start winning to keep pace in the Central, where they now trail by three games.

Kansas City Royals (28-70) vs. Cleveland Guardians (49-50) at Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Royals: 3.70 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.38 runs allowed/game (28th)

Guardians: 4.16 runs scored/game (24th in MLB), 4.17 runs allowed/game (7th)

The Guardians offense hasn’t been great this year, although it has come around a bit in the summer after a cold start. They hit the fewest home runs in baseball and only five teams walk less than them, but they also strike out the least amount in baseball and they have the second-highest contact rate in baseball.

Josh Naylor has been on fire this summer, hitting .382/.409/.624 since May 30, the fourth-best hitter in baseball since that time. He’s also 13-for-30 (.433) against the Royals this season. Steven Kwan is the second-best contact hitter in baseball behind Luis Arraez. Kwan and speedster Myles Straw both have some of the lowest hard-hit rates in baseball. The Guardians have the seventh-most stolen bases, but are also second in most outs on the bases.

Guardians have gotten more innings from rookie starting pitchers than any team in baseball, and in 48 starts those rookies have a 3.66 ERA. Rookie Logan Allen hasn’t given up a run in each of his last three starts, covering 12 ²⁄₃ innings, including 3 ²⁄₃ innings against the Royals on June 28. He only throws in the low-90s, but has had success with his fastball, while his cutter has been a very hittable pitch.

Aaron Civale struck out nine Royals in seven shutout innings with just two hits two weeks ago. He missed the first two months with an oblique injury and is fifth in baseball in ERA among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. He did have a significant drop in velocity his last time out against the Pirates, although he was still effective.

Rookie Gavin Williams is battling a blister issue but should be ready to go on Wednesday. The 23-year-old throws in the mid-90s, but it hasn’t translated into good strikeout rates. Despite that, he has gotten good results, having yet to allow more than four runs in a start this year.

The Guardians have the third-best bullpen ERA at 3.55 with the tenth-lowest walk rate. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been the 14th-most valuable reliever in baseball, according to Fangraphs WAR. Rookie Xzavion Curry has the 13th-lowest walk rate among relievers. Guardians relievers have allowed just 24 percent of inherited runners to score, the third-lowest rate in baseball.

The Guardians continue to churn out pitchers from their farm system who enjoy success right away. But that hasn’t led to a first place position or even a winning record so far this year. Perhaps the Guardians will be aggressive at the trade deadline to improve their offense and give their young pitchers a chance to experience a pennant push.