Twins series preview: A disappointing first place team?

The Twins have gone all-in for contending this year, and while they find themselves in first place in the weak Central Division, they have just the ninth-best record in the league, barely over .500. They have been criticized for all the talent they have traded away to bring in veterans in the hopes of winning this year. And yet, they are heavy favorites to win the division at this point, and Fangraphs has their odds of winning a title at 3.7 percent, better than the Orioles, Brewers, or Angels.

The Twins had a losing record in both May and June, but have been back on the winning side of things in July with a 13-8 record, and are fresh off a 4-2 homestand. They have already taken nine of ten from the Royals this year, and this will be their last chance to get some more W’s against the last place team.

Minnesota Twins (54-50) vs. Kansas City Royals (29-75) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Twins: 4.39 runs scored/game (19th in MLB), 4.00 runs allowed/game (2nd)

Royals: 3.68 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.38 runs allowed/game (28th)

The offense has been the biggest disappointment for the Twins this year, with big names like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton struggling much of the year. Injuries have also been a factor, although the Twins could get infielder Jorge Polanco back this weekend. The Twins are seeking a right-handed complimentary bat at the trade deadline, but insist their biggest boost can come from their own hitters getting back on track.

The Twins have a good walk rate, but strike out more than any other team in baseball. Only seven teams have hit more home run, and six Twins hitters are already in double digits. They are a decent baserunning team according to Baserunning Runs, but only four teams have stolen fewer bases. Rookie Edouard Julien has been a sparkplug for the Twins - he came up just two months ago and is already tied for fourth among American League rookies in WAR.

The pitching for the Twins has been excellent this year, with the starters collectively posting a 3.80 ERA, third-best in baseball. Sonny Gray has gone five innings or more in 18 of his 20 starts this year and is seventh in baseball in fWAR among starting pitchers. He has already beaten the Royals twice this year, allowing just one run in 11 innings.

Bailey Ober has made a jump this year to become a fantastic starting pitcher for the Twins, and has allowed more than three runs in a start just once this year. Opponents are hitting just .161 off his curveball and Ober has one of the best change ups in baseball.

Kenta Maeda has been terrific since coming off the Injured List with a tricep strain. In his six starts since recovering from his injury he has a 2.48 ERA and with 44 strikeouts in 32 ²⁄₃ innings, including a nine-strikeout performance against the Royals in a win on July 4.

The Twins bullpen has been a bit more ordinary with a 3.79 ERA. They shook up the pen this week with a trade sending former Royals pitcher Jorge López to the Marlins for right-hander Dylan Floro. Closer Jhoan Duran is the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball with a fastball that averages 101.8 mph. Only eight relievers generate more swings-and-misses than Duran and he has the 17th-best strikeout rate and second-best groundball rate. Griffin Jax has also been an extreme groundball pitcher with a rate of 58.9 percent.

The Twins went for it this year, and while it has been a mixed bag this year, they find themselves in the driver’s seat with a chance to go on a run this fall. But they’ll need to start playing better to make a serious push for a pennant and win their first championship since 1991.