Twins series preview: A losing first-place team

The Minnesota Twins begin their series against the Royals in first place, but with an overall losing record, worse than all five teams in the American League East. This was a team that made some big free agent signings and big trades in an effort to compete, moves that are now being questioned as the team flounders below .500.

The team has certainly been a bit unlucky. Their pythagorean win expectation is 46-39, and they’ve done poorly in one-run games, going 9-15. But you could also argue they’ve padded their record by going 6-1 against the Royals so far this season.

Kansas City Royals (25-59) at Minnesota Twins (42-43) at Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Royals: 3.80 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.36 runs allowed/game (28th)

Twins: 4.15 runs scored/game (23rd in MLB), 3.79 runs allowed/game (1st)

The offense has been a bit disappointing, starting with Carlos Correa, who the Twins were able to swoop in and re-sign to a six-year, $200 million contract. While the two-time All-Star still hits for power, he has been hovering just above the Mendoza Line most of the year. Outfielders Byron Buxton and Max Kepler have been right down there with him. Jose Miranda got off to a disastrous start, and was demoted in May only to return over the weekend. Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis, and Nick Gordon are all currently out with injuries. The Twins are hoping to get a spark from top prospect Edouard Julien, who has good pop from the left side and has gotten off to a good start so far this season.

The Twins strike out more than any other team in baseball, but are middling in home runs and walks. They’re a station-to-station team - only the Rockies have stolen fewer bases. Defensively, they’ve been pretty good, with former Royals outfielder Michael A. Taylor still providing great defense in the outfield.

Twins starter Joe Ryan tossed an impressive complete game shutout with no walks on June 22 against the Red Sox, but gave up six runs in three innings his last time out. He is having a breakout season overall and is third in baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Austin Cox will make his second Major League start after giving up four runs in 3 ²⁄₃ innings his last time out against the Guardians.

Kenta Maeda recently returned after missing nearly two months with a tricep strain. He has given up just two runs in ten innings since returning. Zack Greinke is just 5-15 in his career against the Twins, and his 6.03 ERA at Target Field is his highest for any ballpark he has made at least ten starts in.

Pablo Lopez has the fifth-highest strikeout rate among starters, and he has struck out 16 in his last two starts combined. He has amped his fastball up to 95 mph this year to go with his change up, sinker, sweeper, and curveball. Alec Marsh walked four but struck out five in four innings in his MLB debut against the Dodgers last weekend.

Twins relievers have the fourth-best ERA in baseball at 3.53 and have done a good job of missing bats without giving up many home runs. Closer Jhoan Duran is the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball right now and he has the 15th-highest strikeout rate. Griffin Jax is one of just six relievers who had pitched at least 30 innings without giving up a home run this year. The bullpen has been hit hard with injuries, with Jorge Alcala, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Lopez, and Brock Stewart all on the Injured List.

The Twins have dropped 10 of their last 17, but 22 of their next 25 games are against teams that currently have losing records, including nine games against the two worst teams in baseball, the Royals and A’s. The Royals have a chance at their first three-game winning streak of the season if they can take the series opener. But they’ll be relying a lot in this series on inexperienced starters against the best pitching staff in baseball this year.