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Mariners series preview: You know what they say about August in Kansas City?

This week it won’t be hotter than two rats in a ****ing wool sock.

Baltimore Orioles v Seattle Mariners Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images

The Royals face off against the Mariners for the first time this year in the “Battle of Grass Creek.” Seattle had been aggressively adding to their team make a post-season push for this year, but were below .500 over the first half of the season. But they have really hit their stride this summer, winning 24 of their last 36 games to pull within 6.5 games of first and within 1.5 games of a Wild Card spot.

Seattle Mariners (63-54) vs. Kansas City Royals (38-81) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Mariners: 4.54 runs scored/game (15th in MLB), 4.04 runs allowed/game (3rd)

Royals: 3.95 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.29 runs allowed/game (28th)

The ball has been flying out of the ballpark lately for the Mariners, with their hitters slugging 32 home runs in their last 20 games. Overall they are near the middle of the league in home runs hit, but they have the sixth-lowest team batting average in baseball, and the second-highest strikeout rate.

Last year’s Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez got off to a slow start, but he has been on fire lately, hitting .303/.347/.596 with six home runs in his last 20 games. Teoscar Hernández and Eugenio Suárez both have strikeout rates north of 30 percent, among the highest in the league. The lineup is missing shortstop J.P. Crawford and outfielder Jarred Kelenic to injury, and have had to pick up players like Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas to fill in.

Mariners lineup and bench

Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
CF Julio Rodriguez (R) 522 19 27 .255 .318 .433 3.8
3B Eugenio Suárez (R) 499 16 2 .233 .323 .387 2.1
C Cal Raleigh (S) 392 20 0 .225 .306 .450 3.1
RF Teoscar Hernández (R) 486 17 5 .242 .290 .409 0.7
1B Ty France (R) 481 9 1 .253 .331 .379 0.6
DH Dominic Canzone (L) 69 2 0 .219 .275 .375 -0.2
LF Cade Marlowe (L) 55 2 2 .313 .400 .521 0.5
SS Dylan Moore (R) 77 5 2 .217 .299 .536 0.5
2B Josh Rojas (L) 236 0 6 .221 .284 .288 -0.2
Bench PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Tom Murphy (R) 159 8 0 .290 .335 .538 0.8
1B Mike Ford (L) 152 11 0 .219 .289 .496 0.4
IF José Caballero (R) 221 3 20 .221 .344 .315 1.8
OF Sam Haggerty (S) 51 0 4 .178 .275 .222 -0.2

Three Mariners starters - Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby - are among the top 15 starting pitchers in baseball for best strikeout-to-walk ratio. Gilbert is a former first-round pick that throws strikes with a 95 mph fastball and a slider that has a 30 percent whiff rate. Rookie Emerson Hancock, the #6 overall pick of the 2020 draft out of Georgia, will make his second MLB start after giving up two hits and a run in five innings against the Padres in his debut. His fastball sits at 93 mph but he relies a lot on his sinker, slider, and change up to induce a lot of ground balls.

Castillo was acquired in a big deal with the Reds last year and he has a 3.15 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts-per-nine innings in 35 starts with the Mariners since being acquired. He has the 12th-best strikeout rate among starters this year and he and Kirby each have some of the most effective fastballs in the game. Kirby is coming off a three hit complete game shutout his last time out, and he has a 1.97 ERA in his last five starts.

Expected pitching matchups

Monday, August 14 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Monday, August 14 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Logan Gilbert 3.66 3.43 137.2 9.0 1.6 3.0
RHP Brady Singer 5.05 4.00 128.1 7.6 2.8 1.8
Tuesday, August 15 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Emerson Hancock 1.8 3.87 5.0 5.4 5.4 0.1
RHP Jordan Lyles 6.13 5.25 126.1 6.3 2.5 0.5
Wednesday, August 16 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Luis Castillo 3.14 3.92 143.1 10.2 2.3 2.3
RHP Alec Marsh 6.27 7.18 33.0 9.6 5.2 -0.6
Thursday, August 17 - 1:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP George Kirby 3.11 3.18 144.2 8.2 0.9 3.6
LHP Angel Zerpa 7.71 6.05 9.1 2.9 1.0 -0.2

The Mariners have the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.68 with the fourth-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest walk rate. Matt Brash has the fifth-highest strikeout rate among relievers with a 98 mph fastball and one of the best sliders in the game. Andrés Muñoz has been getting most of the save opportunities with his 99 mph fastball since the team traded away closer Paul Sewald. Former Royals reliever Gabe Speier has the third-lowest walk rate among relievers and is allowing lefties to hit just .214/.236/.271 against him. Right-hander Isaiah Campbell attended Olathe South High School in suburban Kansas City before pitching at Arkansas.

Mariners bullpen

Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Andrés Muñoz 2.93 2.29 30.2 12.9 4.1 1.0
RHP Matt Brash 3.02 1.81 50.2 14.9 3.9 1.7
RHP Justin Topa 2.38 2.94 45.1 7.9 2.4 0.8
LHP Gabe Speier 3.52 2.75 38.1 9.4 1.2 0.7
LHP Tayler Saucedo 2.02 3.16 35.2 9.3 4.0 0.4
RHP Trent Thornton 3.09 3.95 11.2 9.3 1.5 0.0
RHP Isaiah Campbell 2.61 3.94 10.1 10.5 4.4 0.0
RHP Ryder Ryan 0.00 2.27 1.0 18.0 9.0 0.0

Former Mariners great Ichiro Suzuki learned from his teammates about the extreme heat of coming to Kansas City in August, but it will actually be unseasonably cool this week. Perhaps the Royals can cool down the Mariners bats this week and stake their claim for Grass Creek, Wyoming.

Poll

How will the Royals fare this series against the Mariners?

This poll is closed

  • 3%
    Royals sweep 4-0
    (6 votes)
  • 4%
    Royals take 3 of 4
    (7 votes)
  • 29%
    Series split 2-2
    (46 votes)
  • 49%
    Mariners take 3 of 4
    (77 votes)
  • 12%
    Mariners sweep
    (20 votes)
156 votes total Vote Now