Cubs series preview: The friendly confines

The Royals head up to Wrigley Field in Chicago this weekend where they historically have a 7-10 mark, although they swept the Cubs there in their last visit in 2021. Those Cubs were mired in a losing season, but the Cubs find themselves back in post-season contention this year after a hot streak where they have won 17 of their last 24 games.

Kansas City Royals (39-84) vs. Chicago Cubs (62-58) at Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Royals: 4.02 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 5.35 runs allowed/game (28th)

Cubs: 5.03 runs scored/game (5th in MLB), 4.51 runs allowed/game (17th)

The Cubbies offense has been very good this year, particularly in the “friendly confines” of Wrigley Field, where they average 5.4 runs per game. The hitting has been paced by the remarkable comeback by former MVP Cody Bellinger, who is fifth in the National League in OPS after two disastrous seasons with the Dodgers. The Cubs splurged on a seven-year, $177 million deal for free agent Dansby Swanson, and he has performed in his first year with the Cubs, posting the fifth-most fWAR by any shortstop. Journeyman outfielder Mike Tauchman has proved to be a shrewd pickup for the Cubs, and they acquired third baseman Jeimer Candelario from the Nationals at the trade deadline.

The Cubs are a patient team with the fourth-highest walk rate. They can also create havoc on the bases - only five teams have more than their 102 steals and they lead baseball in Baserunning Runs. Defensively they are strong up the middle - Swanson and second baseman Nico Hoerner are both among the top eight defenders in Outs Above Average, with Swanson leading all of baseball, and Bellinger has played well in center.

Jameson Taillon has been a bit of a free agent bust for the Cubs after signing a four-year, $68 million deal last winter. He had a six-start stretch with a 2.17 ERA before his last outing where he gave up eight runs in three innings against the Blue Jays earlier this week. He has particularly struggled at home, allowing opponents to hit .323/.365/.544 with 10 home runs in 11 starts against him.

Lefty Justin Steele has enjoyed a breakout season and was named to his first All-Star team this year. He’s a fastball/slider pitcher who doesn’t walk many hitters and induces a high groundball rate of 47.7 percent. Kyle Hendricks is another strike-thrower with the sixth-lowest walk rate of any pitcher with at least 90 innings. He missed the first seven weeks with a shoulder injury, but is back to form now as a groundball pitcher that throws a change up more than anyone in baseball other than Logan Webb to go with his sinker.

The Cubs bullpen has the 12th-best ERA at 3.97, with the seventh-highest strikeout rate but the sixth-highest walk rate. Closer Adbert Alzolay has the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among relievers and is 16-of-17 converting save opportunities this year. Right-hander Julian Merryweather, who was selected off waivers in January, has the 22nd-highest strikeout rate among relievers. Former Royals reliever Jose Cuas has yet to give up a run in six outings with the Cubs.

The Cubs are gelling as a team and have some momentum after a walk-off home run in their last game on Wednesday against the cross-town White Sox. The Royals are playing better in the last month than they have all year, but the Cubs could make this a very unfriendly visit to Chi-town.