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Mariners series preview: The battle of two phenoms

Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. are two of the young stars of the game.

2021 SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The Royals continue their west coast trip with a visit to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seattle Mariners. The series will feature two of the most dynamic young players in the game, both in their second MLB season - Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez.

The M’s have won 24 of their last 32 games to pull within one game of first place Texas, tied with the Astros for the #2 Wild Card spot. Part of that hot streak includes a trip to Kansas City two weeks ago where they took three out of four, although every game in the series was close.

Kansas City Royals (41-88) vs. Seattle Mariners (71-56) at T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

Royals: 4.01 runs scored/game (27th in MLB), 5.29 runs allowed/game (28th)

Mariners: 4.74 runs scored/game (12th in MLB), 4.06 runs allowed/game (4th)

Since July 1, the Mariners as a team have the second-best wRC+ in baseball and are averaging 5.21 runs per game over that time. Rodriguez has been particularly hot since the start of July, hitting .344/.396/.549 over his last 44 games. Like Witt, he has a shot at a 30/30 season in just his second MLB season and he has also been of the league’s best defenders by Outs Above Average.

The Mariners have a solid walk rate of 8.9 percent, but are second in the league in strikeout rate. Shortstop J.P. Crawford has a career-high 15.3 percent walk rate, sixth-best in baseball. Cal Raleigh leads all catchers in baseball with 24 home runs and has been one of the best pitch-framers this season. The Mariners acquired Josh Rojas from the Diamondbacks to take over second, replacing disappointing veteran Kolten Wong, who was released. Seattle is also without promising young outfielder Jarred Kelenic due to injury.

Mariners lineup and bench

Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
SS J.P. Crawford (L) 477 10 1 .260 .378 .402 2.7
CF Julio Rodriguez (R) 566 21 34 .277 .337 .461 4.8
3B Eugenio Suárez (R) 549 18 2 .234 .328 .389 2.3
C Cal Raleigh (R) 432 24 0 .224 .301 .464 3.4
1B Ty France (R) 532 10 1 .255 .338 .382 0.7
RF Teoscar Hernández 531 19 6 .259 .305 .434 1.4
LF Cade Marlowe (L) 89 2 4 .244 .337 .410 0.6
DH Mike Ford (L) 178 12 0 .222 .303 .487 0.5
2B Josh Rojas (L) 270 2 9 .242 .301 .329 0.4
Bench PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Brian O'Keefe (R) 11 0 0 .111 .272 .222 0.0
IF José Caballero (R) 248 3 25 .240 .371 .340 2.4
IF Dylan Moore (R) 102 7 3 .244 .333 .556 0.7
OF Dominic Canzone (L) 99 3 1 .231 .293 .396 -0.2

The Mariners have also been hit hard with injuries to their pitching staff, missing Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, and Emerson Hancock. But they are fourth in baseball in runs allowed with a team ERA of 3.69, second-best among all teams. Mariners pitchers also throw strikes - all three starters in this series are among the top 20 in lowest walk rate.

Rookie Bryce Miller tossed 6 13 shutout innings against the Astros his last time out. He has some of the best fastball spin in the game, throwing it at 95 mph to go with a slider/sweep, change up, and sinker. Almost half of all balls hit against him are flyballs, but he has one of the lowest home-run-to-fly-ball ratios in baseball.

Logan Gilbert struggled to get out of the fifth inning when he faced the Royals two weeks ago, giving up four runs in the only win the Royals have against the Mariners this year. His fastball has some of the worst spin, and has been pretty hittable with opponents batting 281 against it, but he has one of the best sliders in the game, and a very effective split-fingered fastball.

Luis Castillo has been a workhorse - he is ninth in baseball in innings pitched, and has yet to go less than five innings in a start. He attacks hitters, and he threw 47 consecutive fastballs against the White Sox his last time out, giving up just one run and no walks in seven innings with nine strikeouts.

Expected pitching matchups

Friday, August 25 - 9:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Friday, August 25 - 9:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Brady Singer 5.04 4.05 139.1 7.7 2.8 1.9
RHP Bryce Miller 3.78 3.88 97.2 8.2 1.8 1.6
Saturday, August 26 - 3:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Jordan Lyles 6.20 5.59 139.1 6.0 2.4 0.1
RHP Logan Gilbert 3.77 3.72 148.0 8.9 1.6 2.7
Sunday, August 27 - 3:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Alec Marsh 5.56 6.75 43.2 10.3 5.2 -0.7
RHP Luis Castillo 3.15 3.72 157.1 10.0 2.1 2.9

Mariners relievers have a 3.45 ERA, third-best in baseball, with the second-highest strikeout rate. They are have the third-lowest inherited runners scored rate. Matt Brash has the fifth-highest strikeout rate among relievers, but he struggled earlier this month against the Royals, giving up runs in two of his three outings against them. Brash and Andrés Muñoz are among the hardest-throwing relievers in the game, throwing in the high-90s and regularly hitting 100. The Mariners have the second-highest number of relief appearances on zero days rest.

Bullpen

Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Andrés Muñoz 2.78 2.31 35.2 12.4 4.0 1.2
RHP Matt Brash 3.31 2.00 54.1 14.6 3.6 1.8
RHP Justin Topa 2.10 2.82 51.1 8.2 2.5 1.0
LHP Gabe Speier 3.32 2.80 43.1 1.0 1.3 0.8
LHP Tayler Saucedo 3.26 3.27 38.2 8.8 4.0 0.4
RHP Trent Thornton 2.25 3.83 16.0 7.3 1.7 0.0
RHP Isaiah Campbell 2.93 3.46 15.1 10.0 4.1 0.1
RHP Luke Weaver 6.73 5.72 99.0 8.2 3.1 0.3

The Royals battled the Mariners closely at home earlier this month, but the Mariners still took the series. They are looking like a team gelling at the right time and could be poised to make a run in the post-season with their pitching staff and their dynamic young star, Julio Rodriguez.

Poll

How will the Royals fare this series against the Mariners?

This poll is closed

  • 3%
    Royals sweep 3-0
    (4 votes)
  • 6%
    Royals take 2 of 3
    (7 votes)
  • 47%
    Mariners take 2 of 3
    (52 votes)
  • 42%
    Mariners sweep
    (47 votes)
110 votes total Vote Now