Pirates series preview: Who will walk the plank?

The Royals invite their small market brothers, the Pittsburgh Pirates into town this week for a three-game series. The Royals have won seven in a row at home against the Pirates, who are on their way to a fifth consecutive losing season. They are in a rebuild like the Royals, but have taken a step forward after losing 100+ games in each of the last two seasons.

Pittsburgh Pirates (58-73) vs. Kansas City Royals (41-91) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Pirates: 4.18 runs scored/game (24th in MLB), 4.91 runs allowed/game (22nd)

Royals: 3.98 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.36 runs allowed/game (28th)

The Pirates are starting to infiltrate their young prospects into the lineup, but they have yet to make an impact. Former first round picks Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales each came up and struggled to hit, and now Davis is on the Injured List and Gonzales is back in the minors. Switch-hitting catcher Endy Rodriguez has had mixed results, although he had a pair of three-hit games last week. Shortstop Oneil Cruz has missed virtually the entire year with a broken ankle.

The Pirates do have two positions locked down for the future, committing to third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and outfielder Bryan Reynolds with long-term deals. Centerfielder Jack Suwinski looked like a nice find in the first half of the season, but the former Padres prospect has hit just .126/.262/.243 in 34 games since the All-Star break. Only three teams have hit fewer home runs than the Pirates, although they hit more home runs away from their home park. Pirates hitters have the fourth-highest walk rate in baseball. They are an average baserunning team, but have been caught stealing with the second-highest rate in baseball.

Johan Oviedo brings a 96 mph fastball with a slider and one of the best curve in the league. The Cuban right-hander is allowing opponents to hit just .185 against him in his last eight starts, but has walked 4.4 hitters-per-nine innings over that time. He has a 44.4 percent groundball rate and has one of the lowest home run rates among starters.

Luis Ortiz was ranked as the #74 prospect in the game by Baseball America before the season, but has struggled to throw strikes this year. He came up in May, but was sent down at the All-Star break, and has made just two spot starts in the big leagues since then. He gave up five runs with five walks, failing to get out of the fourth inning his last time out against the Cardinals last week. Opponents are hitting .429 against his 96 mph fastball fastball this year, so he relies more on his sinker and slider.

Andre Jackson was purchased from the Dodgers in June and has pitched well since coming over to the Pirates. He was the “bulk” guy last time out and gave up just two runs over six innings with no walks. He relies a lot on his change up, but opponents are hitting .299 against it with a .597 slugging percentage.

Pirates relievers have a 4.28 ERA, just a bit higher than the league average of 4.18. Closer David Bednar has been the third-most valuable reliever in baseball, according to fWAR, but he has given up seven runs in 9 ¹⁄₃ innings over his last nine outings with two blown saves. Ryan Borucki has the second-lowest walk rate of any pitcher with at least 20 innings. Lefty Jose Hernandez has held his own as a Rule 5 pick from the Dodgers with a terrific strikeout rate, and his ERA was below four until he gave up four runs in his last outing.

The Pirates raced out to a 20-9 start this year, but quickly fell back to earth and have shown a lot of the growing pains typical of a team relying on young players. On paper, this seems like the kind of series the Royals can take, but they have underachieved far too often, and have now lost 15 of their last 20.