Astros series preview: Astroball keeps winning

There are only two weeks left in the season, but the Royals and Astros will play each other for the first time this year, meeting again in Houston next weekend. The Astros continue to roll on as a juggernaut, with the third-best record in the American League, but holding onto a slim half game lead in the Western Division. On paper, they should be able to streamroll the Royals, but the Astros just lost a home series against the Athletics, so anything is possible.

Houston Astros (83-64) vs. (Kansas City Royals (46-101) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Astros: 5.16 runs scored/game (5th in MLB), 4.33 runs allowed/game (11th)

Royals: 4.09 runs scored/game (26th in MLB), 5.34 runs allowed/game (28th)

Houston’s offense has been terrorizing pitchers lately with an average of 7.5 runs-per-game over their last 17 games, with the lineup producing double-digit runs in six games over that time. Leading the way has been Yordan Alvarez, who has been healthy and is hitting .403/.531/.758 since August 26. Veteran Michael Brantley recently returned from a shoulder surgery, which could bump Jake Meyers to the bench. Rookie catcher Yanier Diaz is tied with Salvador Perez with the third-most home runs among catchers, but the Astros frequently sit him in favor of defensive-minded veteran Martín Maldonado.

The conventional wisdom is that the Astros benefit from the short porch at Minute Maid Park, but they have actually hit more home runs on the road, and have the second-most road home runs of any team. They are a high-contact lineup, with the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Overall, the Astros are a good defensive team, particularly on the left side of the infield with Alex Bregman and Jeremy Peña, but veterans Jose Altuve and Martín Maldonado have fared poorly in Defensive Runs Saved.

Cristian Javier has regressed a bit from his numbers last year with more home runs and fewer strikeouts. He has struggled since the start of July with a 6.46 ERA in 11 starts. He’s lost some velocity on his fastball that now sits at 92 mph, and the whiff rate on his slider is down from 39 percent last year to 28 percent this year.

J.P. France is tied with teammate Hunter Brown and Mets pitcher Kodai Senga for most wins by a rookie pitcher this year with 11. The former 14th round pick out of Mississippi State has been much better on the road with a 2.60 ERA. He throws a 93 mph fastball with a cutter and change, and opponents are hitting just .120 with a 43 percent strikeout rate against his curveball.

Framber Valdez is tied for 11th among all pitchers in fWAR, and tossed a no-hitter last month against the Guardians. He has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in baseball and the third-highest groundball rate. He relies heavily on a sinker, and his curve has a 39 percent whiff rate.

Houston has a 3.71 ERA from their bullpen, the eighth-best in baseball with the second-best strikeout rate. Bryan Abreu has the tenth-best strikeout rate among relievers. Closer Ryan Pressley is 30-for-35 in save opportunities this year with a 56.5 percent groundball rate. Phil Maton has the second-best curveball among relievers. Astros manager Dusty Baker asks his relievers to pitch more than one inning less than any other manager in baseball.

Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are the only Astros players left from the 2017 team that was tainted by the sign-stealing scandal. Yet the franchise continues to operate as one of the most successful teams in baseball, and they will be serious contenders to win their third title in a decade. Perhaps the Royals can catch them by surprise, but there will be a massive talent disparity on display this weekend.