Astros series preview: A team locked in a tight race for the post-season

The Astros have had a mini-dynasty, reaching the post-season in each of the last six years with three pennants and two championships. But they could be in danger of missing the post-season entirely as the American League has one of its closest races in years.

The Astros currently lead the Western Division by a half game over both the Rangers and Mariners, the first time since 1969 that three teams have been within a game of first place with under ten games to go. While one of the non-division winners can make the playoffs, the other could be left out entirely as the Rays have clinched a playoff spot and the Blue Jays could earn a Wild Card spot as well.

Kansas City Royals (51-102) vs. Houston Astros (85-68) at Minute Maid Field, Houston, TX

Royals: 4.15 runs scored/game (26th in MLB), 5.32 runs allowed/game (28th)

Astros: 5.16 runs scored/game (5th in MLB), 4.38 runs allowed/game (12th)

The Royals took two of three from the Astros last week in Kansas City, and Houston has lost six of their last nine. The batting has not been an issue with the team averaging 5.9 runs per game this month. Yordan Alvarez leads all hitters in wRC+ in September with a line of .345/.491/.655 and seven home runs. Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker are both in the top twelve in most-valuable position players in the American League, by fWAR. Tucker can join the 30/30 club with two more home runs and two more steals. Jose Altuve missed the start of the season with a thumb injury, but has been one of the best hitters in the league since the All-Star break with a line of .340/.413/.585.

The Astros have the 11th-best walk rate, and the third-lowest strikeout rate. They have hit the seventh-most home runs, but just 41.7 percent of those have come at home, and their OPS is over 60 points lower at Minute Maid Park.

Framber Valdez gave up just one unearned run over seven innings in a win over the Royals last week. The lefty has the second-lowest groundball rate in baseball at 54.3 percent by using his sinker and curve.

Rookie J.P. France has had a nice season, but has faltered down the stretch with a 8.87 ERA over his last five starts, including five runs in 4 ¹⁄₃ innings in a no decision against the Royals last week. He throws a 93 mph fastball with a cutter and change, but got just two swing-and-misses against the Royals.

Hunter Brown is fifth among all rookie pitchers in fWAR with 2.3. He has the 13th-best strikeout ratio in baseball. His curveball has a 30 percent whiff rate, but his slider has been very hittable this year, with opponents hitting .301 with a .497 slugging percentage against it.

Rookies Anthony Veneziano and Jonathan Bowlan would be candidates to start for the Royals on Sunday.

The Astros have the ninth-best bullpen ERA at 3.87. Ryan Pressley blew his sixth save of the year this week against the Orioles and has given up nine runs in his last seven outings. Bryan Abreu features a 97.6 mph heater, one of the fastest in baseball. Astros relievers have the third-highest strikeout rate, but the fifth-highest home run rate.

The Astros are fighting to make the playoffs, but have had some rare missteps lately against bottom feeders like the Royals and A’s. The Royals could be catching them while they’re vulnerable, but those Houston sluggers will prove to be a difficult challenge for Kansas City pitchers with a short porch in left field.