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Yankees series preview: The end is near

Join us at home this October, Yankees fans!

Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

The Yankees are having a dreadful season. Well, dreadful by their standards. Their 81 wins are more than any Royals team since 2016, but if they drop a single game this weekend the Yankees will have their most losses in a season since 1992. The Bronx Bombers will also be at home for October for the first time in seven seasons, leaving uncertainty as to whether manager Aaron Boone will return next year.

The Yankees have actually played well in September, relying on more young players. They have won 19 of their last 29 and just won back-to-back series against the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, two potential playoff teams.

New York Yankees (81-78) vs. Kansas City Royals (54-105) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Yankees: 4.16 runs scored/game (24th in MLB), 4.27 runs allowed/game (4th)

Royals: 4.13 runs scored/game (25th in MLB), 5.35 runs allowed/game (28th)

Aaron Judge is tied for ninth in home runs with 37, despite missing almost two months of action. Fellow slugger Giancarlo Stanton has looked well past his prime with a 30 percent strikeout rate this season, and he has hit just .160/.259/.345 over his last 33 games. Rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe joined the 20/20 club in his first season, but with one of the highest strikeout rates in the league. Rookies Austin Wells, Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and Estevan Florial have all had significant playing time down the stretch, and the Yankees have gotten 1,098 plate appearances from rookies, the second-most for the team since 1992 (behind only the 2018 Yankees).

As a team, the Yankees have the sixth-highest walk rate and tenth-highest strikeout rate. They are second-worst in baseball in Baserunning Runs with the fifth-worst success rate on stolen bases (barely worse than the Royals).

Yankees starting lineup and bench

Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
1B DJ LeMahieu (R) 553 15 1 .241 .324 .386 0.9
RF Aaron Judge (R) 449 37 3 .267 .405 .617 5.2
2B Gleyber Torres (R) 662 25 13 .270 .344 .452 3.2
C Austin Wells (L) 67 3 0 .194 .227 .403 0.1
DH Giancarlo Stanton (R) 415 24 0 .191 .275 .420 -0.8
LF Oswaldo Cabrera (S) 317 5 8 .216 .282 .307 -0.5
SS Anthony Volpe (R) 591 21 24 .207 .283 .384 1.9
3B Oswald Peraza (R) 317 5 8 .216 .282 .307 -0.5
CF Esteven Florial (L) 60 0 3 .255 .350 .353 0.3
Bench PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Kyle Higashioka (R) 251 10 0 .232 .272 .408 1.6
C Ben Rortvedt (L) 79 2 0 .118 .241 .221 0.1
IF Isiah Kiner-Kalefa (R) 357 6 14 .242 .306 .342 0.2
OF Jake Bauers (L) 265 12 3 .198 .272 .414 -0.6
OF Everson Pereira (R) 90 0 4 .160 .244 .210 -0.3

Lefty Carlos Rodón has been a major disappointment in the first year of a six-year, $162 million deal. He missed the first half with a forearm strain and back tightness, and also suffered hamstring injuries as he struggled to get back on track. He struck out ten with no walks in his last road start against the Pirates, but gave up five runs his last time out against the Diamondbacks. The 30-year old has held up his velocity, but his fastball has been quite hittable, while his slider has still been effective.

Clarke Schmidt has had mixed results in his first full season as a starter. Lefties have really pounded him, hitting .300/.374/.498 against him. He has a four-pitch mix with a cutter, sweeper, sinker, and his best pitch, a curveball. He gave up three runs in 5 23 innings in a July 21 start against the Royals in New York.

Michael King has pitched primarily out of the bullpen the last few season for the Yankees, but since being pressed into a starting role late in the year, he has been fantastic. The 28-year-old has a 1.05 ERA with opponents hitting just .203/.256/.244 against him over his last seven starts, and he allowed just one hit his last time out against the Blue Jays. King relies on a sinker and sweeper to generate a 42 percent groundball rate.

Jordan Lyles is currently tied for the club single-season record for most home runs allowed with Darrell May in 2004 at 38. Zack Greinke has yet to announce his plans, but Sunday could be his last Major League start.

Expected pitching matchups

Friday, September 29 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Friday, September 29 - 7:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
LHP Carlos Rodón 5.74 5.49 64.1 9.0 3.6 0.0
RHP Jordan Lyles 6.24 5.65 171.2 6.1 2.3 0.1
Saturday, September 30 - 6:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Clarke Schmidt 4.65 4.40 155.0 8.5 2.7 1.8
TBA
Sunday, October 1 - 2:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Michael King 2.50 2.76 100.2 11.3 2.9 2.6
RHP Zack Greinke 5.18 4.78 137.1 6.2 1.4 1.0

The Yankees have had a 3.93 ERA from their bullpen this year, seventh-best in baseball. However they have staffed the pen down the stretch with many unproven young arms. Clay Holmes has the third-highest groundball rate among relievers at 65.2 percent, and has converted 23-of-26 saves. Former minor league free agent Ian Hamilton has turned in a nice season and has the third-lowest home run rate.

Yankees bullpen

Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Clay Holmes 2.90 2.71 62.0 10.0 3.3 1.5
RHP Ian Hamilton 2.73 2.84 56.0 10.9 4.2 1.0
RHP Jhony Brito 4.33 4.93 87.1 6.8 2.9 0.2
RHP Greg Weissert 4.42 4.45 18.1 9.3 3.0 0.0
LHP Nick Ramirez 2.72 2.85 39.2 6.4 2.0 0.7
RHP Zach McAllister 10.80 8.65 5.0 7.2 3.6 -0.2
RHP Matt Bowman 13.50 10.75 2.0 9.0 9.0 -0.2
RHP Randy Vásquez 2.91 5.34 34.0 7.2 4.2 0.0
RHP Yoendrys Gómez 0.00 0.75 2.0 18.0 0.0 0.0

These aren’t your grandfather’s Yankees with marquee names for the Broadway signs. But the Baby Bronx Bombers do have talent - the Yankees have been one of the best teams at minor league development and international scouting for the last decade. Still, it would be great to send them home on a losing note to end the year.

Oh, and F the Yankees.

Poll

How will the Royals fare this weekend against the Yankees?

This poll is closed

  • 13%
    Royals sweep 3-0
    (11 votes)
  • 20%
    Royals take 2 of 3
    (17 votes)
  • 50%
    Yankees take 2 of 3
    (41 votes)
  • 15%
    Yankees sweep
    (13 votes)
82 votes total Vote Now