Royals Review: All Posts by Jackson Bracken"A dim view of humanity" -Lee Judgehttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/29790/royalsreview.gif2022-06-27T12:00:00-04:00https://www.royalsreview.com/authors/jackson-bracken/rss2022-06-27T12:00:00-04:002022-06-27T12:00:00-04:00Checking in on old predictions, Part 1
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<img alt="Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Bobby Witt Jr. (7) is congratulated by catcher MJ Melendez (1) after hitting a home run during the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Kauffman Stadium. It was the first MLB home run hit by Witt Jr." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VW2itibF4ugXZI2Q9gAPVLawsus=/319x0:4573x2836/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71020494/usa_today_18196740.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>How are the rookies faring?</p> <p id="qdzLms">Almost six months back I wrote an article called, <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/1/4/22852297/what-will-happen-with-top-royals-prospects-in-2022">What will happen with the top Royals prospects in 2022?</a> As we approach the All-Star break, I figured it would be a perfect time to take a look at how a few of my predictions have turned out so far. I will make a full follow-up at the end of the regular season as well. Back in that article, I focused on the four prospects that everyone was anticipating coming into the 2022 season, Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and Vinnie Pasquantino.</p>
<h2 id="Kp1B2v">Bobby Witt Jr.</h2>
<p id="5VrZbC"><em>My January 4</em><sup><em>th</em></sup><em> Predicted Stats for 2022: </em>135 Games, 528 PA, 482 AB, .278/.341/.471 slash-line, .812 OPS, 134 Hits, 23 Doubles, 2 Triples, 22 Homeruns, 24 Steals, 42 Walks, 132 Strikeouts, 84 RBI, 76 Runs</p>
<p id="ER6hPq">Current 2022 Stats:<em> </em>69 games, 287 PA, 264 AB, .242/.293/.466 slash-line, .759 OPS, 64 Hits, 16 Doubles, 5 Triples, 11 Homeruns, 11 Steals, 17 Walks, 69 Strikeouts, 37 RBI, 40 Runs</p>
<p id="MzjSeU">Bobby started the season on the big league roster as the majority of us cautiously hoped for, but he was off to a slow start through his first seven games where he only tallied up three hits in his first 28 major league at-bats. Since then he has shown nothing but great potential in all areas of the game. He is playing at the pace of 38 doubles, 12 triples, 26 Homeruns and 26 steals in a full 162-game season. He is the fastest player in the league (by Baseball Savant’s Sprint Speed statistic) at 30.4 feet per second and just yesterday he drew three walks in one game. His strikeout rate (24%) is only one percent higher than it was last season in the minors. To top it all off, he’s making a highlight play with his glove at short seemingly every other day.</p>
<p id="mx5q50">Aside from the batting average, he has been even better than I predicted back in January and even that has been trending up as he is batting .270 across his last thirty games and .298 across his last fifteen games. There isn’t much more to ask for from a rookie, he has been one of the best things to watch from the overall lackluster team.</p>
<h2 id="2qdxP8">MJ Melendez</h2>
<p id="siuHqX"><em>My January 4</em><sup><em>th</em></sup><em> Predicted Stats for 2022: </em>105 Games, 325 PA, 290 AB, .259/.338/.459 slash-line, .797 OPS, 75 Hits, 10 Doubles, 0 Triples, 16 Homeruns, 2 Steals, 33 Walks, 75 Strikeouts, 48 RBI, 43 Runs</p>
<p id="mQzKDY">Current 2022 Stats: 46 Games, 181 PA, 156 AB, .231/.331/.404 slash-line, .735 OPS, 36 Hits, 7 Doubles, 1 Triple, 6 Homeruns, 0 Steals, 24 Walks, 40 Strikeouts, 17 RBI, 16 Runs</p>
<p id="DyA6IV">After a grade 2 hamstring strain to Cam Gallagher, the Royals’ hand was simply forced to call MJ Melendez to the show even though he was off to a 13/78 start in the AAA (.167 BA). If that injury to Cam did not happen, MJ would very likely still be out in Omaha with the next two players in this article.</p>
<p id="skaik2">MJ started his career out hot with an OPS of .848 with four extra-base hits (2 Homeruns) in his first 46 plate appearances. Unfortunately for the timing of this article, it seems MJ may be entering his first true slump at the major league level as he is now 2 of his last 22 at-bats. Nevertheless, MJ has shown us a lot of what he is capable of already. He has already taken reps behind the plate and in right field thus far. He is hitting on pace for 21 Homeruns, 25 doubles, and 85 walks in a full 162-game season. He is the sixth-fastest player on the Royals by Sprint Speed, beating out players such as Kyle Isbel, Nicky Lopez, and Andrew Benintendi. And the cherry on top comes from how great his eye has looked at the major league level. MJ’s at-bats this season, starting from his very first game, have been some of the highest quality on the team.</p>
<h2 id="5bkPrX">Nick Pratto</h2>
<p id="byCQiy"><em>My January 4</em><sup><em>th</em></sup><em> Predicted Stats for 2022: </em>90 Games, 352 PA, 383 AB, .235/.318/.435 slash-line, .753 OPS, 73 Hits, 10 Doubles, 2 Triples, 16 Homeruns, 3 Steals, 40 Walks, 110 Strikeouts, 52 RBI, 47 Runs</p>
<p id="mbDaCa">Current 2022 Stats: N/A</p>
<p id="GDaTyr">The Royals officially have 91 games left in the season, so if Nick intends to match my predicted games for him he better hope he is called up by this Tuesday. Statistically, he has taken a slight step down this season in AAA, but he still has an OPS over .800 and he is walking at a great rate. It is very difficult for the major league team to find room for Nick on the current stacked roster. No matter when Nick is called up, I still think he will put up similar numbers to my prediction above once he finally makes it here.</p>
<p id="jf4diE">The main concern many have for Nick Pratto in the bigs is his strikeout rate as he was at 29% across AA and AAA last season and is at 31% this season in AAA. The results shown by Bobby’s K% transition to the big league level look to be promising for Nick Pratto, but again, there is just too much veteran depth at first base for Nick to get a look just yet...</p>
<h2 id="JbYgkv">Vinnie Pasquantino</h2>
<p id="pEuFWV"><em>My January 4</em><sup><em>th</em></sup><em> Predicted Stats for 2022: </em>80 Games, 300 PA, 268 AB, .276/.353/.425 slash-line, .778 OPS, 74 Hits, 14 Doubles, 1 Triple, 8 Homeruns, 2 Steals, 30 Walks, 45 Strikeouts, 43 RBI, 35 Runs</p>
<p id="piVRdo"> Current 2022 Stats: N/A</p>
<p id="uDGVDB">Vinnie unfortunately is in the same boat as Nick, as they are both still trapped chasing storms in Omaha. For the case of the Italian Breakfast however, he has actually taken another step up in the minor leagues this season. His OPS is in the mid .900s and is already nearing on 20 homeruns after only hitting 24 in his full season between A+ and AA in 2021. Vinnie currently has 36 extra-base hits, 34 walks, and 36 strikeouts in 68 games in AAA to follow up his season last year where he had the exact same amount of each stat above. I am certainly not a scout, but I don’t see many players that look more MLB-ready than that in the minors. Even if you aren’t sold on his amazing eye, or improving power, it is important to note that he has also batted .292 in his minor league career across 1052 plate appearances. Let’s hope some major league playing time is found in his direction sooner rather than later.</p>
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<p id="hy61Pa">I will give myself some credit for the predictions I made all those months back, but what I would really like to see is all four of these players on the same batting lineup in Kansas City. By the time the end of the season rolls around, I will be very upset if Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino still have nothing to show for in the “Current 2022 Stats” section of the article.</p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/6/27/23184289/checking-in-on-old-predictions-part-1Jackson Bracken2022-05-03T12:00:00-04:002022-05-03T12:00:00-04:00A tale of two struggles
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<img alt="MLB: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/T9rmoJTDfM84QGelphkOTP3g0t0=/0x0:4170x2780/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70827386/usa_today_18159205.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>There is still hope!</p> <p id="0RoDkn">While it may be easy to be discouraged by the stretch that the Kansas City Royals have put together to start the year, let’s not forget about the basics. While there are hundreds of reasons that the team’s first 21 games have fallen short of even the simplest expectations, it’s very easy to forget the scale of a full major league season. Across 162 games there will always be some excruciating baseball played even by some of the best teams around. Below I am going to compare the different <em>but similar</em> struggles put on display between this and last year’s team.</p>
<p id="GaC1bm">The 2021 Royals finished off with a record of 74-88. They were the best team in April, one of the worst teams in May, they hit rock bottom in June, and they climbed their way back up throughout the rest of the year. Along that rock bottom month of baseball, the team managed across a 4-21 stretch. Take a look at the team stats put up during those games.</p>
<h2 id="lvFcTa">Offense</h2>
<p id="NUkm3o">.245/.300/.382</p>
<p id="moqS8i">3.2 Runs per game</p>
<p id="7QnWvy">59 Walks, 198 Strikeouts, 24 Home Runs</p>
<h2 id="psd9I9">Pitching</h2>
<p id="4k0bgi">6.62 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 Walks, 196 Strikeouts</p>
<p id="fq4ZOQ">Now compare this to how the current team is performing during their 7-14 stretch.</p>
<h2 id="Bc23N4">Offense</h2>
<p id="dn3PpS">.212/.283/.312</p>
<p id="j7GYZo">3.0 Runs per game</p>
<p id="aMNmt1">62 Walks, 154 Strikeouts, 12 Home Runs</p>
<h2 id="mVR2qM">Pitching</h2>
<p id="uDsETu">4.48 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 72 Walks, 154 Strikeouts</p>
<p id="i6yqgV"> </p>
<p id="S3cxVN">So, what does this tell us?</p>
<p id="VnlhIn">Well, after that stretch in 2021, the team went 41-41 to finish off the second half of the year. The bats heated up some and the young starters completely turned it around. If that doesn’t scream hope for a repeat, then I’m not sure what does.</p>
<p id="OsDGpu">When comparing these two snippets above, it is clear to see that relative to now, the bats in 2021 were much hotter, but the team was drawing fewer walks, striking out more, and still producing nearly the same amount of runs. On the other end, the 2021 pitchers across those 25 games were plain and simple horrific. Now in 2022, the overall pitching still hasn’t even been average, but thanks to a few specific pitchers, it has allowed us to stay in and win seven games already even when our offense has tried its hardest not to. The Royals could very easily be about 4-17 right now.</p>
<p id="iHJHa0">It is now only a few days into May paired with the shortened spring and as they normally are league-wide, the bats are the coldest part of this team. They can’t move runners over, they can’t get runners in, and they more often than not can’t even do it if there are no outs in the inning. It is not realistic to expect all of Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Nicky Lopez, Michael A Taylor, Carlos Santana, Hunter Dozier, and Bobby Witt Jr. to bat .225 or under as they all are right now.</p>
<p id="w5UKqU"> While again, this is not anything close to an ideal start from this team, there is still plenty to be hopeful for this season. I would not write anything off 13% of the way through as many already have for this season.</p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/5/3/23054258/a-tale-of-two-strugglesJackson Bracken2022-05-02T10:00:00-04:002022-05-02T10:00:00-04:00The back end of the rotation
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<img alt="MLB: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/S-09woCWZNxWf9PgTEB1JEf9Shw=/0x0:4200x2800/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70822065/usa_today_18182819.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Can the Royals find five good starters?</p> <p id="qwGcf0">Well, here we are. Through the Royals' first 20 games of the season, they have a record of 7-13. There are a few obvious topics that most fans have had problems with, the offense’s slumping, the runners left on base, the contact plays, the bunting, and of course the back end of the rotation. I want to focus on that last part, “the back end of the rotation”. A team is only as strong as its weakest link and while there have been some great performances from the first three starters, the last few are just as critical to this team’s success.</p>
<h2 id="En0slZ"><strong>The First Three</strong></h2>
<p id="2bC0oo">Now 12 percent into the season, the best three starters have been without a doubt Brad Keller, Zack Greinke, and Daniel Lynch. Combined, these three pitchers have put up a 2.93 ERA in 12 starts with 67 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings. In that time they have 43 strikeouts and 13 walks for a 3.31 ratio and a 0.99 WHIP. </p>
<p id="rAJtiv">These three have kept the team in nearly every game they have pitched in and have been a pleasant surprise to all fans. Brad Keller looks like he is back and better than ever and if his small four-game sample isn’t enough to impress you then see below:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brad Keller since July 4, 2021:<br>13 G 77.1 IP 3.03 ERA 1.1543 WHIP <a href="https://t.co/Mc72BO0Myb">https://t.co/Mc72BO0Myb</a></p>— Jackson Bracken (@Jsbracken1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jsbracken1/status/1520079475521773569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 29, 2022</a>
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<p id="3xU4fc">Zack Greinke has been as advertised if not better and has been able to pitch to contact without having the runs pile up thus far. Then finally, Daniel Lynch has looked spectacular and has been lowering his walks while upping his strikeouts.</p>
<h2 id="JofUkJ">The Problem</h2>
<p id="iuRqu3">If you haven’t been following along much this early on and have heard words of encouragement about this team’s bullpen and are now reading the stats above from 60% of the Royals' starting rotation, you may begin to question how the team is already six games under .500. Well, aside from the offense, the current back end of the rotation manned by Carlos Hernández and Kris Bubic has not shown as much of the promise we hoped for from 2021. These two pitchers’ have combined for a 7.80 ERA in eight starts over 30 innings with 16 strikeouts and 19 walks for a 0.84 ratio and a 1.97 WHIP. </p>
<p id="EoKm7G">Carlos Hernández was one of the best young pitchers for this team last year with a 3.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 85.2 innings pitched. In 2021, opponents batted .216 on his fastball (thrown 55.7% of the time) and the pitch was averaging 97.2 mph. So far in 2022, Carlos is only throwing his fastball 47.7% of the time at an average of 95.3 mph and opponents are batting .500 against it. He has been throwing his curve more and getting better results than before with that pitch, but he really needs to locate his fastball better in the meantime while its velocity works its way back up.</p>
<p id="EEB6si">Kris Bubic was also one of the better young arms for the team in 2021 where he mustered up a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across 130 innings pitched. Now, out of the entire MLB, Kris is currently in the 10<sup>th</sup> or below percentile in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, K%, BB%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate. If you are not familiar with any of these stats or just simply aren’t too fond of any advanced stats, all that really matters is that in 2021 he was not below the 10<sup>th</sup> percentile in any of these categories. His biggest difference this year by pitch is also his fastball. Last season opponents slugged only .355 against it and thus far in 2022, they are slugging .808 against it. Through his first four starts, Kris is getting 6.8%, 3.8%, and 8.3% less swings and misses on his fastball, changeup, and curveball respectively compared to 2021.</p>
<p id="QYsfvF">Both pitchers seem to have much less control than they did last year which is also displayed by both of their increases in walks. While a lot of these numbers are alarming, it would be crazy not to expect some positive regression after what we have seen from both pitchers before. After all, it has only been four starts for each of them. The real wildcard here in the back half of the rotation includes another young arm that has yet to make a start in 2022</p>
<h2 id="AqGwnO">Brady Singer</h2>
<p id="YS4Mhx">Appearing in only three games of relief so far in 2022, and having just been sent down to Triple-A, it is very easy to forget about Brady Singer. He has a career 4.67 ERA, 4.06 FIP, and 1.422 WHIP across 42 games (39 starts). The original plan starting out the season was for the five-man rotation to consist of Greinke, Keller, Bubic, Hernández, and Lynch in that order. A month into the season, Brady has had a mixed bag of only 5 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings of major league work and was just recently sent to Omaha to stretch back out as a starter. The only problem becomes who he replaces.</p>
<p id="3sPard">Out of the six starters mentioned now, three of them are locked in the rotation, and three of them have all shown great potential over their short tenures. So what is the next step? Both Kris Bubic and Carlos Hernández took reps out of the bullpen last season and looked good doing so, but one of the original reasons for having Brady out of the rotation was seemingly his lack of a third pitch. He has a sinker and a slider fully in his repertoire and has shown very minimal flashes of a change up. Of the 103 pitches thrown in his three appearances this year, only 1 was a change up. </p>
<p id="CWOknH">The struggles of Hernández and Bubic have apparently put the team right back to the drawing board with Brady Singer. He will likely get a shot in the rotation as well very soon, but has anything improved or changed since the last time he was out there?</p>
<h2 id="ycFf41">The Other Option</h2>
<p id="rjx2DF">In 2021, the Royals tested out something a little different from most teams and ran out a six-man rotation for a portion of the season. A common theme all around this organization has been the depth at certain positions (See the middle infield, first base, catcher, and starting pitchers). So while the team at its current state is very unlikely to make Keller, Greinke, and Lynchs’ starts less frequent this early on, maybe keep an eye on it as we get deep into the 162.</p>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/5/2/23052647/the-back-end-of-the-rotationJackson Bracken2022-04-18T10:00:00-04:002022-04-18T10:00:00-04:00Why it is WAY too early to overreact
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<img alt="MLB: Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UUWK0SZZZeEeXtL5S4XebQy62kU=/0x50:4200x2850/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70762041/usa_today_18101669.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Let’s all calm down.</p> <p id="kDSyPQ">While many fans had high hopes for this team’s performance early on in 2022, it is way too soon to make judgments on how the rest of the season will turn out. Sure, winning our first two games followed by a five-game losing streak (including a 17-3 loss to one of 2021’s worst offenses) was a harsh reality check this early on, it is by far too soon to set any limits on any area of this team. If this were the NFL, these 8 out of 162 games so far would be equivalent to having 10 minutes left in game one of the NFL regular season. No one in their right mind would make any drastic opinions for the full year that early on. <br><br>While I don’t expect this team to make a run for the playoffs yet (78-84 was my prediction this year), there should still be plenty of fun to follow along. Below I want to point out many early-on statistics and snips through 2021 that seemed shocking at the time but never summarized the full season.</p>
<h2 id="MaDaW9">First to 74-88</h2>
<p id="RbHaYA">Through May 1, 2021, the Kansas City Royals were 16-9 and held the best record in baseball. It was only fifteen percent into the season and the fanbase had a lot of blind hope. The team then proceeded to finish off the year 58-79 to come to the final record of 74-88. While this team in 2022 looks much worse offensively than we would have expected to start the year, we are less than five percent into the regular season. There is no reason to overreact.</p>
<h2 id="M3UcPV">Losing streaks and bad stretches</h2>
<p id="NJjvcN">Unless you have blocked it from your memory, you may also remember those two brutal losing streaks last season. Right after that hot stretch mentioned above, the team lost eleven straight games from May 2 to May 13 and then nine straight games from June 23 to July 1 that closed out an overall stretch of 4-21 baseball starting on June 5. There are so many games within a regular season that even if this team truly does finish right around .500, it would be impossible to expect them to win every other game or to always look like everything is clicking.</p>
<h2 id="qkk028">Individual and team performances</h2>
<p id="7Wx0rt">It is very easy for many fans right now to be discouraged by slow starts from:</p>
<p id="Efb0sZ"><strong>Salvador Perez </strong>(.188/.212/.406)</p>
<p id="mHJMBV"><strong>Carlos Santana </strong>(.077/.226/.115)</p>
<p id="f3t0vc"><strong>Adalberto Mondesi </strong>(.148/.207/.148)</p>
<p id="F28GEu"><strong>Bobby Witt Jr. </strong>(.156/.182/.281)</p>
<p id="929V6Q"><strong>Whit Merrifield </strong>(.152/.176/.152)</p>
<p id="6GHzcM"><strong>Kris Bubic </strong>(5 IP, 10.80 ERA, 2.600 WHIP, 4/8 SO/W)</p>
<p id="ju7Ei8"><strong>Daniel Lynch</strong> (5 IP, 10.80 ERA, 2.000 WHIP, 3 HR)</p>
<p id="GwU9ol"><strong>Carlos Hernandez</strong> (4.1 IP, 8.31 ERA, 1.846 WHIP, 1/2 SO/W)</p>
<p id="7eIKti"><strong>Brady Singer</strong> (3.0 IP, 12.00 ERA, 2.333 WHIP, 7.39 FIP)</p>
<p id="WV8Ax6"><strong>Jake Brentz </strong>(2.1 IP, 15.43 ERA, 3.429 WHIP, 0-2 W-L) </p>
<p id="q4WzWL"><em>And encouraged by hot starts from:</em></p>
<p id="dZumxq"><strong>Nicky Lopez</strong> (.348/.375/.391)</p>
<p id="qLnOpc"><strong>Andrew Benintendi </strong>(.357/.438/.464)</p>
<p id="N512xK"><strong>Hunter Dozier </strong>(.296/.321/.481)</p>
<p id="Uwnxgg"><strong>Brad Keller </strong>(13.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 0.615 WHIP, 10/3 SO/W)</p>
<p id="qtPGYS"><strong>Zack Greinke </strong>(11.0 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9)</p>
<p id="PO0yQM"><strong>Scott Barlow</strong> (4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 1.13 FIP)</p>
<p id="JFbMQf"><strong>Dylan Coleman</strong> (4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 0.81 FIP)</p>
<p id="KGEijW"><strong>Collin Snider </strong>(4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 1.06 FIP)</p>
<p id="79XMlZ">But stats and surprises like this almost always level out or sometimes even completely turn around through the course of the year.</p>
<h2 id="H0rvmy">In the 2021 season…</h2>
<ul>
<li id="gc5f30">Nicky Lopez was batting .200 with 2 stolen bases 31 games in and looked like his bat might not make it as a big leaguer, he then finished the season batting .300 with 22 steals.</li>
<li id="6fGSyu">Michael A. Taylor slashed .324/.359/.514 ten games into the year but finished overall slashing .244/.297/.356. </li>
<li id="n28ZIU">Whit Merrifield made two errors in one series against the Rays early on along with far too many other fielding blunders as well for one series, but he then finished the year as a gold glove finalist.</li>
<li id="98pKu5">Carlos Santana slugged .421 in the first half with 15 home runs and then only slugged .246 with 4 Home Runs in the second half.</li>
<li id="t25jjh">Salvador Perez was 12<sup>th</sup> in the league in home runs at the All-Star break with 21 and finished off the season tied for the league lead with 48.</li>
<li id="E7ePUL">Andrew Benintendi was batting .250 through 105 games, then hit .371 in his last 29 games to bring his overall average up 26 points in one month.</li>
<li id="SlEbjG">The Royals team ERA in the month of June was 29<sup>th</sup> in the league at 6.00 but was 13<sup>th</sup> in the league in the month of August at 3.89.</li>
<li id="ak0Szd">The Royals team batting average in the month of June was 11th in the league at .254 but was 23rd in the league in the month of July at .238. </li>
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<p id="hIalyX">I think you get the point here, eight games means almost nothing in either direction when looking at the grand scheme of a full season. This year will be like every other year for every other team in the history of baseball with plenty of ups and downs in all aspects. While in the moment at times it may seem that this is either the worst team in the league or the best team in the league, you can’t forget to put the season as a whole into perspective. </p>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/4/18/23029447/why-it-is-way-too-early-to-overreactJackson Bracken2022-04-05T10:00:00-04:002022-04-05T10:00:00-04:00What else are you looking forward to this season?
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<img alt="MLB: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Vs0verH8gfmj6KxImBfG1Hj9evg=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70711924/usa_today_16898996.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Gary Rohman-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Aside from the obvious...</p> <p id="l2v4Wr">There is a lot to be excited about with this Royals team in the upcoming season. Let’s get the most obvious pieces out of the way first. The Zack Greinke reunion season is of course a fairy tale ending for us Royals fans and the suspense and excitement coming from all of the prospects on the cusp of the bigs has us all on the edge of our seats. Without mentioning Zack Greinke, Bobby Witt Jr, MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and Vinnie Pasquantino, what are you most excited for this season?</p>
<p id="t7b7LN">I’ll go ahead and start to answer my own question here while you think about it. For starters, I am cautiously hopeful for what is to come from Adalberto Mondesi in 2022. He seemingly (and surprisingly) has the shortstop position on lock and also appears to be healthy. If he can keep it together for 100+ games this season, it should be very exciting to see what he can produce. If Mondesi puts together a stat line to the tune of .265/.295/.440 with 18 home runs and 35 steals in 100 games at short, I think that would make everyone involved in the organization happy. The team would then have some serious decisions to make regarding the structure of the future infield.</p>
<p id="UtJjro">Next up, Whit Merrifield, will he continue his “slight regression” that many seem to enjoy pointing out, or will he keep up his all-star caliber play at a new position? You also can’t mention Whit without addressing the everlasting trade rumors surrounding him. With him still being on this team going into 2022, I don’t think Whit is going anywhere. I also believe he will excel right field. Many question his arm strength out there and still do not fully support his relocation but I have hope for him out there. Having two Gold Glovers sharing the outfield with Whit, along with Bobby, Mondi, and Nicky in the infield should not leave any room for worry defensively. The only real reason fans deserve to be upset about Whit’s relocation is my next point.</p>
<p id="CiUBAl">Kyle Isbel. I was and am very excited to see how Isbel can make a name for himself this season after his hot finish to 2021. The only problem now is that another two years of Michael A Taylor along with Whit now in the outfield leaves a lot less plate appearances for Kyle Isbel. I am hoping that Isbel can make space on this team as the fourth outfielder and can platoon at-bats with Taylor. The team needs to find him big league plate appearances no matter what it takes.</p>
<p id="E9Lyt7">Everyone has to be curious about the encore performances coming up in 2022. I am of course referring to Salvador Perez and Nicky Lopez’s follow-up seasons. I am very eager to see if they can come close to matching up to their respective displays last year. Will Salvy hit 35+ home runs again? Will he hit in 90+ runs again? Will Nicky hit above .285 again? Will he finally get his deserving gold glove? I am definitely hoping so, and if this team wants to make another step forward, they will desperately need Salvy and Nicky’s production once again.</p>
<p id="FgstPy">Finally, the most exciting part about this season (aside from the first paragraph's contents) to me is the battle that the starting pitchers are going to be putting up. After surviving the dog days of summer last year the young guns seemed to bounce back very well and there were plenty of great flashes from Kris Bubic, Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Brad Keller, and Carlos Hernández to name a few. I am thrilled to see how each of these players improves and how they make the leaps in their careers to help this team compete going forward.</p>
<p id="5sqe54">Go Royals!</p>
<p id="j1tdwl"></p>
<div id="7PeMca"><div data-anthem-component="poll:11127468"></div></div>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/4/5/23009401/what-else-are-you-looking-forward-to-this-seasonJackson Bracken2022-03-31T12:00:00-04:002022-03-31T12:00:00-04:00Organizational Depth: Outfield
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yZC62Be06c65Ay9GlOkDfY1tkLI=/0x0:5820x3880/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70694335/usa_today_17976514.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What does the future hold?</p> <p id="MNTc4M">On Opening Day, the outfielders for the Royals will likely be Andrew Benintendi, Michael A. Taylor, and Whit Merrifield from left to right. While this is a very well-rounded outfield this season, what will the team’s options look like in the near future? Benintendi will be heading into his last year of club control, Taylor is on a two-year, $9 million deal, and Merrifield is an aging All-Star that is in trade rumors yearly. These scenarios in Kauffman’s outfield made me really start to think about the Royals’ organizational depth out there and left me with one question. Who is up next?</p>
<p id="8EzxHd">The simplest and least interesting answer to this question is that there will be no big changes in the near future. The Royals could give Andrew Benintendi a contract extension, sign a new deal with Taylor once his new extension is up, and stick with Merrifield all the way until his retirement. But, let’s go over some possibilities that could help this team accelerate and continue its course to competition.</p>
<h2 id="5molzG">Position Changes/Already on the Roster</h2>
<p id="329qSj">This Royals team, while still finding its footing in standings, is very deep at several positions. The middle of the infield is all clogged up, our top catching prospect plays the same position as a very loved silver slugger, and our two other prospects both play first. A lot of players currently on the roster will be forced to adjust and adapt to get at-bats on this team, including but not limited to Whit Merrifield out in right.</p>
<h3 id="9gB1h7">Nick Pratto</h3>
<p id="fSphCH">Nick just came off of a season in Double-A and Triple-A where he was devastating baseballs. While he does need to bring his strikeout rate down, he clearly has the talent to be in the show. Pratto however has two problems. First, his position is blocked directly by Carlos Santana this season (at least for the start of it). The next problem lies with fellow top prospect Vinnie Pasquantino. They both play first base so if they each want to make it on this team in the majors, someone will have to give way. Could Vinnie take reps as the DH to keep Nick in the field? Sure, but then where do you put one of the two of MJ Melendez and Salvador Perez when the other one is catching? The other option would be to have Vinnie play first base and move Nick to right field. He has played 30 total innings in right in the minors, so if this happens he will need to start preparing soon.</p>
<h3 id="BKlg1n">Hunter Dozier</h3>
<p id="Cs9lRk">After securing a four-year, $25 million dollar contract before last season, it’s only right to assume that the Royals will be very persistent in getting their money’s worth with this contract. Dozier will be getting plenty of opportunities and should get the majority of his early reps at DH this year. He will need to prove himself every at-bat this season and put in the work to improve in the field if he wants to get back to the outfield, where he was one of the worst defenders in the league in 2021 by most metrics.</p>
<h3 id="2ZSLvG">MJ Melendez</h3>
<p id="qHBxBJ">MJ’s situation as seen above is intertwined with Nick Pratto, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. Depending on which way the team decides to go once all the prospects are ready, MJ could end up at catcher, DH, right field, or third base.</p>
<h3 id="IFShj2">Edward Olivares</h3>
<p id="XxJkfk">The man that does not give up. I lost count of how many times Olivares was shipped to and from Kansas City last season, but man is this guy hard not to root for. He is scorching hot this spring batting over .600 at the time I am writing this, and yes while these games do not matter, Olivares is doing all he can to show he belongs. Olivares could potentially play any of the outfield positions, he just needs consistent opportunity to show what he can do. He most certainly has a chance to be a part of the Royals' future if he can keep this groove going.</p>
<h3 id="4ypizn">JaCoby Jones</h3>
<p id="zE65M3">Jacoby has a career .646 OPS across 1195 plate appearances, so nothing really stands out there, but he has logged over 2000 innings in center field, a position that looks pretty open following the next two years of Taylor’s contract.</p>
<h3 id="QzMXst">Ryan O’Hearn</h3>
<p id="AKXS7n">Much to many fans' dismay, Ryan O’Hearn has the chance to prove that he has what it takes to play for this major league ball club. While the majority of his appearances for the majority of his career are at first base, he does have some experience in both corner outfield spots. He would need to really stand out this season to earn some long-term consideration at either of those positions.</p>
<h2 id="byT93n">Prospects</h2>
<p id="FEclKd"><em>Outfielders from the </em><a href="https://www.mlb.com/prospects/royals"><em>MLB Pipeline’s top 30 rankings</em></a></p>
<h3 id="AzqCjn">Nick Loftin </h3>
<p id="GSC9gW">#6, projected ETA by 2023</p>
<p id="7liGvx">This is the type of guy that knows how to adapt. He has experience at nearly every position through his college and minor league days already and knows how to hit the ball for contact. Loftin grades as a 55 Arm and Fielding rating by scouts, if there isn’t room in the infield for Loftin, his future home could be Kansas City’s outfield.</p>
<h3 id="2ndYXa">Kyle Isbel</h3>
<p id="TtngqR">#7, 76 MLB At-Bats in 2021</p>
<p id="Fw1tjt">Kyle Isbel was on the opening day roster last season and didn’t make it long before getting sent down. On his return near the season’s end, Isbel looked great at all positions in the outfield and found some consistent contact at the plate. If Isbel can sneak in some more plate appearances this season as the team’s fourth outfielder I think he will prove himself as a more than capable option for the future. Before Taylor’s extension, many thought he could be the solution in center right now, although this will likely not happen within the next two years, Isbel is looming right around the corner.</p>
<h3 id="Nu8wC4">Erick Peña</h3>
<p id="48QoqZ">#12, projected ETA by 2024</p>
<p id="Eecfbx">In 40 games of rookie ball for the ACL Royals Blue, Peña put up a slash line of .161/.256/.314. However, he is only 19 years old and all of the raw tools are there, as he was the #5 ranked international prospect in 2019-20. Pena seems to have great potential for contact hitting and defense as a natural center fielder but it is still much too early on to make a firm prediction for him.</p>
<h3 id="zS2KqA">Darryl Collins </h3>
<p id="G31wmW">#26, projected ETA by 2023</p>
<p id="EcPzyE">In 2018 Darryl Collins was signed out of the Netherlands mainly for his high contact rate, speed, and fielding. In his most recent season with the Columbia Fireflies, Collins was able to draw 52 walks with only 55 strikeouts in 317 at-bats. His power still has to come along but he has already shown great flashes of his capabilities in left.</p>
<h3 id="hQMU13">Tyler Gentry </h3>
<p id="iM9FKP">#29, projected ETA by 2023</p>
<p id="YEQ6Lf">Tyler Gentry was drafted out of the third round in 2020 for his hit tool and ability to spread the ball to all sides of the field. He has a strong arm and showed some good spurts at the corners in Quad Cities in 2021, slashing .259/.395/.449 with 6 home runs and 4 steals in 147 at-bats.</p>
<h2 id="8jezUE">Other outfield prospects</h2>
<h3 id="53PXbU">Seuly Matias</h3>
<p id="AcMsOQ">Seuly has the physical traits and the talent necessary to become an everyday big-league outfielder, he just needs more time to put it together. While he struggled to hit for average across High-A and Double-A, Matias slugged out 17 home runs in 252 plate appearances while compiling 24 walks. He has a great arm in right and has been improving on defense. If he can continue to bring down his strikeout rate and bring up his contact rate, the future will look very bright for Matias.</p>
<h3 id="jMsp0g">Brewer Hicklen</h3>
<p id="WzOIaw">While Brewer did have a high strikeout rate in Double-A last season (31.3%), he did show his capabilities of playing both corner outfield spots and the speed to possibly cover center. In 107 games, Hicklen stole 40 bases while only getting caught 4 times and also slammed out 16 home runs. His OPS was .780, so overall his bat isn’t that far off where it needs to be. I would like to see him get much more opportunities in center field as that is an area of need for this team and he seems to hit the mold better than other corner outfielders in this list.</p>
<h3 id="jmLtvz">Tucker Bradley</h3>
<p id="XOwMkG">Tucker slashed .280/.370/.430 across 360 plate appearances in Quad Cities along with 42 walks and 77 strikeouts. This is another prospect with a lot of experience at either corner outfield spot and could very well make his way to the show thanks to his hitting alone.</p>
<p id="17mKYF"></p>
<p id="BwlGyn">Could any of these players be serious long-term solutions for the Royals? The likelihood of at least two of these guys working out at the corner spots in the outfield in the future seems pretty high to me. The problem comes when you start to look at the depth of true center fielders. It becomes very slim very quick. They can only rely on Michael A. Taylor for so long, once they go their separate ways what should the team do? Should they continue working on converting a guy like Kyle Isbel to the center-field spot or will they once again reach out into free agency to fill their central needs?</p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/3/31/23004095/organizational-depth-outfieldJackson Bracken2022-03-15T14:00:00-04:002022-03-15T14:00:00-04:00Does spring training performance carry into the regular season?
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/I4msG5QjwVZfWZy9UZ-ByPcdscg=/0x0:5057x3371/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70626310/usa_today_15813778.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s complicated</p> <p id="M5nxW9">The time has finally come! After 99 days the shadow cast over the entire league is finally gone. Now it is once again time for some <em>real</em> baseball. Year after year through spring training the performances almost never transfer past Opening Day. However, this is the first step to the regular season and we are all excited to see some baseball again, so below I am going to analyze the last three spring’s top performers and see if there is any hope for real production.</p>
<p id="pNTFEg">*Top five will be ranked by OPS and must have at least 25 spring at-bats*</p>
<h2 id="lGITA1">2021</h2>
<p id="E53EhC">1. Nick Pratto – 29 ABs (.345/.406/.862) (1.268 OPS)</p>
<p id="4x22A6">2. Hunter Dozier – 45 ABs (.289/.373/.733) (1.106 OPS)</p>
<p id="RFiyLL">3. Salvador Perez – 40 ABs (.350/.409/.650) (1.059 OPS)</p>
<p id="diCiqW">4. Michael A. Taylor – 39 ABs (.333/.438/.615) (1.053 OPS)</p>
<p id="cKVPWi">5. Jorge Soler – 56 ABs (.286/.344/.661) (1.005 OPS)</p>
<p id="H8xEdq">While the above rankings do show a sort of mixed bag in terms of regular-season results, there does seem to be a possible correlation. For starters, Nick Pratto tore up spring training and then went on to dominate Double-A and Triple-A, so the performance transferred over well for him. Next up is Hunter Dozier. After destroying baseballs in spring, he started off the regular season slow before injuring his thumb very early on. He claimed this injury lingered on until mid-June which does check out with his numbers, as mid-summer is when he finally started to pick it up. Third up is Salvy. He did great in spring and then led the entire MLB in home runs and RBIs, not much else to say there. Michael A. Taylor showed out in spring training and started off the first few games scorching hot before soon cooling down to what was expected from a lower lineup type of player. The final mystery is Jorge Soler. After having the fifth-highest team OPS (in the most total at-bats) in spring training, Soler was one of the worst hitters in the first half of the regular season. He then picked it up near the halfway point enough to get traded to the Braves. Soler did well for the rest of the regular season there and went on to win the World Series MVP (still can’t believe I just typed that).</p>
<p id="fC7ost">Overall, as expected, it seems that a hot spring training doesn’t hurt but definitely is not the only factor in deciding how a player's regular season turns out. </p>
<h2 id="Y96GNx">2020</h2>
<p id="B6KqoA">1. Bubba Starling – 37 ABs (.378/.439/.865) (1.304 OPS)</p>
<p id="TSDGLD">2. Ryan O’Hearn – 35 ABs (.343/.395/.857) (1.252 OPS)</p>
<p id="FaHTa7">3. Salvador Perez – 37 ABs (.297/.372/.568) (.940 OPS)</p>
<p id="SEpOkS">4. Ryan McBroom – 43 ABs (.302/.348/.581) (.929 OPS)</p>
<p id="JLtzA1">5. Nicky Lopez – 30 ABs (.300/.344/.533) (.877 OPS)</p>
<p id="ljFrwF">Well, three and a half of these players are not like the rest. Ignoring Bubba, O’Hearn, and McBroom for a minute let’s check out the positives here. Salvy loves to play the game and will always perform to his best, so him being here again is no shocker. In regards to Nicky, he was counted as a half here since his 2020 regular season did not translate over well from spring. Although, maybe a scenario like this could repeat itself again this spring and in future seasons for someone else. Now back to the big three, Bubba is retired two years later, O’Hearn has still never fully figured it out, and McBroom is on his way to take over Japan. Maybe this spring training study really is just a guessing game. Let’s check out one more year.</p>
<h2 id="x0b0mk">2019</h2>
<p id="FMET77">1. Chris Owings – 51 ABs (.333/.404/.725) (1.129 OPS)</p>
<p id="G1JSrG">2. Humberto Arteaga – 46 ABs (.478/.500/.565) (1.065 OPS)</p>
<p id="aZphdM">3. Bubba Starling – 32 ABs (.344/.432/.625) (1.057 OPS)</p>
<p id="Td1nBr">4. Erick Mejia – 41 ABs (.390/.435/.610) (1.045 OPS)</p>
<p id="dt9vsl">5. Hunter Dozier – 47 ABs (.277/.404/.638) (1.042 OPS)</p>
<p id="IN32FC">Alright, I think this is enough. The top four players from the 2019 spring training above hardly stayed in the majors that year and none had above a .610 OPS. The one outlier here is Hunter Dozier who did have his breakout season following this spring training. If you look at all three of the past spring top-fives once again and take out old reliable Salvy you will begin to see a common trend. There seems to often be three to four players who cannot continue their spring success and one player who has a breakout year following the hot spring. So while we may all be excited for ‘baseball’ to be back, let’s not get too excited at times and remember what history is showing us.</p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/3/15/22978526/does-spring-training-performance-carry-into-the-regular-seasonJackson Bracken2022-02-28T12:00:00-05:002022-02-28T12:00:00-05:00Comparing the Royals to their most similar historical player
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1mNNDYhztDrvwd81RgErZn8_LMQ=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70560612/usa_today_16898908.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Gary Rohman-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lockout leaves us with no choice.</p> <p id="HxigJK">As the lockout continues to loom over our players of the modern-day, I figured it was time to bring the replacements in. Below I created what I believe to be a likely Opening Day roster for the Royals (if that ever happens) and by looking through Baseball-Reference at each 2021 Royals player’s most similar player from the past (based on similarity score), I was able to create a lineup of replacement players. Then, I compared each Royals player’s 2021 season against the replacement's best full season of their respective careers and see which team comes out on top.</p>
<p id="K4dnR2"><em>To read about how the similarity score is calculated check it out </em><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml"><em>here</em></a></p>
<p id="9votFE">A possible Opening Day roster (with 2021 stats shown) looks something like this:</p>
<p id="ku0epH">1 – 2B – Nicky Lopez – <em>151 G; .300/.365/.378; .744 OPS; 21 2B; 6 3B; 2 HR; 22 SB</em></p>
<p id="Xed1Wd">2 - RF – Whit Merrifield – <em>162 G; .277/.317/.395; .711 OPS; 42 2B; 3 3B; 10 HR; 40 SB</em></p>
<p id="seP3am">3 – LF – Andrew Benintendi – <em>134 G; .276/.324/.442; .766 OPS; 27 2B; 17 HR; 8 SB</em></p>
<p id="UwzZJm">4 – C – Salvador Perez – <em>161 G; .273/.316/.544; .859 OPS; 24 2B; 48 HR; 1 SB</em></p>
<p id="ZvGInD">5 – SS – Bobby Witt Jr.* - <em>123 G; .290/.361/.576; .936 OPS; 35 2B; 33 HR; 29 SB (AA/AAA Stats)</em></p>
<p id="aXzJn4">6 – 3B – Adalberto Mondesi – <em>35 G; .230/.271/.452; .723 OPS; 8 2B; 6 HR; 15 SB</em></p>
<p id="162bRL">7 – DH – Hunter Dozier – <em>144 G; .216/.285/.394; .680 OPS; 27 2B; 16 HR; 5 SB</em></p>
<p id="sDijns">8 – 1B – Carlos Santana – <em>158 G; .214/.319/.342; .660 OPS; 15 2B; 19 HR; 2 SB</em></p>
<p id="oW1bVg">9 – CF – Michael A. Taylor – <em>142 G; .244/.297/.356; .653 OPS; 16 2B; 12 HR; 14 SB</em></p>
<p id="sK09xW">Using each player’s highest match batter similarity score, the replacement team is seen below with each new player’s best season stats (95+ games):</p>
<p id="AuivXW">1 – 2B – Red Shannon – <em>119 G; .263/.320/.344; .663 OPS; 18 2B; 9 3B; 0 HR; 11 SB</em></p>
<p id="OLVDeX">2 - RF – Les Bell – <em>155 G; .325/.383/.518; .901 OPS; 33 2B; 14 3B; 17 HR; 9 SB</em></p>
<p id="ctLy2E">3 – LF – Kevin Mench – <em>125 G; .279/.335/.539; .874 OPS; 30 2B; 26 HR; 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="TAWzux">4 – C – Mike Lieberthal – <em>145 G; .300/.363/.551; .914 OPS; 33 2B; 31 HR; 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="ALC0O6">5 – SS – Carlos Correa* - <em>99 G; .279/.345/.512; .857 OPS; 22 2B; 22 HR; 14 SB</em></p>
<p id="BljPq4">6 – 3B – Earl Averill – <em>115 G; .266/.384/.489; .873 OPS; 9 2B; 21 HR; 1 SB</em></p>
<p id="iKZWPH">7 – DH – Ryan Thompson – <em>98 G; .225/.301/.434; .735 OPS; 14 2B; 18 HR; 1 SB</em></p>
<p id="VS8g6h">8 – 1B – Tom Brunansky – <em>157 G; .242/.320/.448; .767 OPS; 28 2B; 27 HR; 5 SB</em></p>
<p id="GN8TC3">9 – CF – Damon Buford – <em>150 G; .251/.324/.390; .714 OPS; 18 2B; 15 HR; 4 SB</em></p>
<p id="CNIOyY">*<em>No similarity scores for Witt Jr. since he has not debuted yet, the Correa comparison was pulled from fellow SB Nation site, </em><a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/2019/4/22/18510279/2019-mlb-draft-prospects-bobby-witt-jr-oklahoma-commit-scouting-report-highlights"><em>Fish Stripes</em></a><em>, and Correa’s rookie season was used for a more fair comparison</em></p>
<p id="DK6hVT">Now let’s break down each matchup:</p>
<h2 id="abkwik">2B – 2021 Nicky Lopez vs. 1919 Red Shannon</h2>
<p id="71Nagd">This comparison makes a lot of sense unsurprisingly. Nicky has a career slash line of .262/.321/.341 with an OPS of .662. Red Shannon’s best full season was nearly identical to Nicky’s career numbers. Red also had the same lack of power that Nicky has and also showed a lot of speed with those triple and stolen bases especially for back in 1919. While this comparison is spot on to Nicky’s career, we are looking at each Royals player’s 2021 season against their comparison’s best season, so Nicky Lopez wins this matchup.</p>
<h2 id="IDPwXA">RF – 2021 Whit Merrifield vs. 1926 Les Bell</h2>
<p id="xA3V3M">Les Bell had a spectacular year in 1926, in comparison to how Whit normally plays Les also hits high contact, a lot of doubles, and had enough speed to get 14 triples. Again, if this was a career comparison the numbers would be very similar and the slight edge would go to Whit Merrifield. However, Bell’s best season might even beat out Whit’s best career season statistically speaking (let alone his 2021 season). Although Les Bell would have to play out of position on this team, I think the third baseman/shortstop could hold his ground out there in right. Round two goes to Les Bell.</p>
<h2 id="BLccf6">LF – 2021 Andrew Benintendi vs 2004 Kevin Mench</h2>
<p id="CYqo29">This is a tough matchup to decide. While Mench beats out Beni slightly in nearly every hitting category (and heavily in slugging and home runs), Benintendi does take the crown for speed and defense where he earned himself a gold glove in 2021. In an outfield like Kauffman’s, the speed and defense may be needed over the slight upgrade in power. Benintendi wins this one.</p>
<h2 id="wu5Tsh">C – 2021 Salvador Perez vs 1999 Mike Lieberthal</h2>
<p id="93gKY3">Once again, another tough matchup, this time behind the plate. While Salvador Perez did have one of the greatest offensive seasons ever by a catcher in 2021, Mike Lieberthal was also no joke in 1999. Mike beats Salvy easily in BA and OBP, while barely leading him in slugging. Mike has over a .050 OPS lead on Salvy overall, hit a few more doubles, and won a gold glove in 1999. However, Salvy did hit 17 more home runs, had a higher OPS+ (126 vs 124), and 25 more RBIs (albeit in 16 more games played). As much as it pains me to say, I think I am going to have to call this one a draw. The only reason Salvy didn’t lose this one is because he did lead the MLB in home runs and RBIs, so he has to get some brownie points there. Mike is definitely giving him a run for his money.</p>
<h2 id="NiwHIq">SS – 2021 (AA/AAA) Bobby Witt Jr. vs 2015 Carlos Correa</h2>
<p id="mkkOHF">This matchup showing Bobby Witt Jr.’s minor league stats is almost cheating (no pun intended Carlos) but Correa’s rookie season was fantastic regardless. If Witt can pull together a season like that in 2022, I think the whole fanbase would be more than happy. Correa wins this matchup (for now) essentially by default, it’s just not fair to matchup any minor league stats to that type of a rookie of the year run by a 20-year-old.</p>
<h2 id="5fBAoJ">3B – 2021 Adalberto Mondesi vs 1961 Earl Averill Jr.</h2>
<p id="6dW1di">I am sure that the similarity score calculator had as tough a time as any trying to find a realistic comparison for Adalberto. He’s shown insane power, unreal speed, a terrible walk rate, played several positions, and has pretty small full-season sample sizes. Earl Jr. (the son of Hall of Famer Earl Averill) put up fantastic numbers over those 115 games and if the Royals could see Adalberto produce those stats across as many games next season (of course with more steals) then they would be more than pleased. Earl Averill, the catcher, and left fielder, takes this job at third over Mondesi.</p>
<h2 id="d50vCY">DH - 2021 Hunter Dozier vs 1994 Ryan Thompson</h2>
<p id="RtFaKh">Surprisingly, this 98 game season was the most Thompson ever played in the bigs. His slash line and OPS beats out Dozier, the home run numbers are very close, and Thompson’s doubles and steals fall short. While this was (hopefully) a historically bad season for Hunter Dozier, I am surprised that the matchup is still as close as it is. All around better-hitting numbers by Thompson along with Dozier’s lack of defense at third and in right in 2021, gives Thompson the edge here. Let’s hope Dozier outperforms these numbers in 2022.</p>
<h2 id="mend2v">1B – 2021 Carlos Santana vs 1985 Tom Brunansky</h2>
<p id="pl4qUn">There isn’t much to say here. Following a good first half by Carlos in 2021, he fell off the map in every category. Tom Brunanasky wins this one in a landslide, but the everyday outfielder will have to start taking more reps at first base to get ready to join this team. Several other seasons of Carlos Santana’s career would have beat out Tom here, but those versions of Santana are not the current version on the Royals.</p>
<h2 id="IQjTKw">CF – 2021 Michael A. Taylor vs 2000 Damon Buford</h2>
<p id="yBgsUn">This matchup, much like Benintendi’s is more situational than anything else for this team. Kauffman Stadium has one of the biggest Center Fields in the league and in 2021 Michael A. Taylor won the gold glove roaming it. So although Damon’s 2000 season does slightly beat out Taylors, the matchup goes in favor of MAT here.</p>
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<p id="yoav3g">In total, the 2022 roster has three wins, the replacement roster has five wins, and they each share one tie. The similarity score players' best seasons take the cake over their 2022 counterparts.</p>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/2/28/22952296/comparing-the-royals-to-their-most-similar-historical-playerJackson Bracken2022-02-14T10:05:15-05:002022-02-14T10:05:15-05:00Four things I am hoping for this season
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<figcaption>Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Wishful thinking.</p> <p id="bZ4u34">Following a year of unbelievable ups and downs in 2021, I am a lot more optimistic heading into the next season. While the Royals didn’t make any big changes via free agency prior to the lockout, there is still plenty to look forward to. The team went 74-88 last season after having an 11-game losing streak and a 9-game losing streak (within a 4-21 stretch). Coming into the <em>eventual</em> 2022 season, the Royals’ starting pitchers (who have been the biggest problem area) now have another year under their belts and the highly anticipated hitting prospects will soon be called up. This team should, at the very least, take the next baby step forward and begin to compete a little more next season. Below are the four things I am hoping for the most.</p>
<h2 id="8CcS7H">More production from third base</h2>
<p id="R2u4pR">In 2021, five different players started at least 20 games at third base. Combined, these fielders put together the most errors and lowest fielding percentage in the American League (25 and .942 respectively) and were also last or nearly last in several defensive run saved categories. This position was manned by Hunter Dozier, Kelvin Gutierrez, Hanser Alberto, Emmanuel Rivera, and Adalberto Mondesi last season, who all combined to hit .224/.273/.355 at the position, the second-worst OPS in the American League at third base. </p>
<p id="yI2A7E">Neither the offense nor defense was good from third base last year. With the call-up of Bobby Witt Jr. looming, the question remains as to where he will be placed on the left side of the infield. If Bobby is slotted at third full time, then it would be safe to assume that many of these problems would go away. An eventual infield of Witt, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, and Nicky Pratto could not only have a chance to be special offensively, but defensively, the young pitchers couldn’t ask for more glove help.</p>
<h2 id="u0OY8U">Starting pitching improvement</h2>
<p id="zu5wKv">Out of the 111 games started by pitchers under 25 last season, the eight that pitched for the Royals - Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Carlos Hernandez, Jackson Kowar, Jon Heasley, and Angel Zerpa - combined for a 5.11 ERA. A major league team will not go anywhere if starting pitching like this does not improve. I am hopeful for change in 2022, following the starters' turnaround in the late summer (where most of the teams’ quality starts began rolling in from) many more games resulted in the win column. Following a year of experience and adjustments (at least 10 games started for five of those eight pitchers), I expect several of them to take the leap and separate themselves from the pack with their performances. My picks for the most improvement year-over -year next season would be Daniel Lynch and Brad Keller.</p>
<h2 id="sleMMD">Players meeting expectations in the first half</h2>
<p id="KQ8xzq">Pre-All-Star break, the Royals had two players bottom four in the league in OPS (Dozier and Jorge Soler). Dozier was dead-last in the entire MLB in batting average in that stretch as well where he slashed .174/.242/.344 with a .586 OPS and Soler wasn’t too far behind him slashing .186/.279/.320 with a .599 OPS. Of course, players will fall into slumps and break out of them naturally throughout the season, but having these two players (who dominated in 2019) collapse for this long just snowballed the team’s losses in the first half. When the Royals already expected guys like Michael Taylor and Nicky Lopez to have a low OPS throughout the first half (#13 and #15 from the bottom pre-All-Star), the “heavy-hitters” can’t be dropping the ball like that. In 2022, the Royals must have fewer disappointments early in the season.</p>
<h2 id="0F4c7K">Quick rookie adjustments</h2>
<p id="ZdjSJl">By the time that Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, and Nick Pratto are all in the majors, in some way or another there will be many adjustments for each player to make. The sooner these players can adjust and meet expectations, the sooner the Royals head towards playoff contention again. The perfect example that I have used before is Wander Franco on the Rays. Wander looked great his first game out, slumped for a while, and looked rushed up, then once he got 100 at-bats in, a switch flipped, and he quickly became a leader on that Rays team. The sooner this transition happens for the young Royals the better, as our competitive window opens and closes with how well they perform.</p>
<p id="V6REZr">What are you hoping for this season?</p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/2/14/22931904/four-things-i-am-hoping-for-this-seasonJackson Bracken2022-01-25T13:09:19-05:002022-01-25T13:09:19-05:002021 Season in Review: Salvador Perez
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<figcaption>Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The season of a lifetime</p> <p id="aRhFAP">The face of this franchise, Salvador Perez, just put up by far the best offensive regular season of his career in 2021. The numbers he produced are up there with some of the greatest seasons ever by a catcher. His stats are shown below:</p>
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<p id="MbkJAD">In a Royals year full of ups and downs and players underperforming, the one constant was Salvador Perez. His batting average never dropped below the .260s in a full month, his OPS never below .778, and he had at least five home runs each month. He was the definition of consistent and even when the pitchers he faced adapted to him, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Royals/videos/salvador-perez-hits-a-solo-home-run-vs-the-twins/205928704760058/">he just kept finding a way to hit it out.</a></p>
<p id="cg2fMz">Across Salvy’s eight seasons prior in the big leagues, he was nowhere near the same player as he is today. Salvy used to strike out less, hit home runs <em>much </em>less, and was mostly known for his defense, where he won five Gold Gloves. Across those 942 regular-season games, Salvy slashed had a .442 slugging percentage and averaged 24 home runs and 103 strikeouts per 162 games. As a matter of fact, ever since Salvy got Tommy John surgery in 2019, he has been an entirely different player. He’s been swinging for the fences much more and the results (both good and bad) have shown.</p>
<p id="5ECTAz">At the All-Star break, Salvador Perez was tied in 12th place in the MLB in home runs with 21 and tied in 29th place in the MLB in RBI with 53. This was good enough to earn himself an invite to the 2021 Home Run Derby, which at the time, many non-Royals fans league-wide thought was a stretch of an invite. Salvy then hit the second-most home runs out of the field in the first round but was overshadowed by eventual winner Pete Alonso. The disrespect the derby announcers gave Salvy during his performance, by hardly even mentioning him, (<a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2021/7/12/22574686/2021-home-run-derby-thread"><em>which you can read about through this thread if you forgot),</em></a> must have fueled Salvy through the second half.</p>
<p id="qaOaVX">After six games of adjusting his power back to real speed, Salvador Perez put on a show like no other. In the 66 games from July 24 through the end of the season, Salvy slugged over .600 and hit 27 of his 48 home runs on the year, tying Jorge Soler’s 2019 Royals franchise home run record. The dominance that Salvy showed in that second half was nothing short of an MVP level. Pitchers were scared to pitch to him and tried their best to get around him, but it didn’t matter. Salvador Perez was tied with Vlady Jr. for the most home runs in the majors and hit in the most runs out of any player. It was a shame that he was only officially given 7th place in the MVP voting.</p>
<p id="bs2pc8">The only “weak” spots of Salvy’s season came from his low walk rates and his pitch framing from behind the plate (which is all that matters to many on baseball twitter now apparently). So let’s break down both of these issues.</p>
<p id="vEtG01">Walk rate, yes Salvy was one of the worst in the league at drawings walks (like he always is) but on a team like the Royals in 2021, do you really want your best offensive player trying to draw a few extra walks when he has a much better chance of hitting in some runs? Especially when this player, Salvador Perez, also adds no speed to the basepaths. When a player leads the league in home runs and RBIs, a minimal amount of walks should be of the least concern.</p>
<p id="BiJLsL">The most frequent stat I hear as a weak point for Salvy is framing. While yes, according to several advanced stat sites, Salvy is at the bottom of the league in all advanced framing categories, his numbers haven’t changed much since it has been tracked in 2015. While framing is important, this should not be the end-all, be-all to defense as a catcher. The difference between good and bad framing only really affects a very small amount of pitch outcomes in each game. Aspects that also directly affect each game are passed balls (Salvy had one all year while having the second most games at catcher), throwing runners out (league-leading 43.9% caught stealing by Salvy), and not making errors (only two on the year). </p>
<p id="zJ0HqO">The Royals finished the season 74-88 and it’s frightening to imagine where they would have ended up had Salvy been even an average player. He put the team on his back day after day by constantly being the team’s only source of offense (especially through that brutal June stretch where the team went 4-21). According to Baseball Savant, Salvy was in at least the 90th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Percentage, Expected Slugging Percentage, and Barrel Percentage. In simpler terms, Salvy absolutely raked. Seemingly every time he made contact with the ball he launched it.</p>
<p id="SCI3Lk">In a season filled with stretches of hopelessness and gloom, Salvy was always the bright spot that kept on pushing. Going forward the Royals are desperately hopeful that Salvy can even be 70% of the player he was in 2021, to help push this future squad into a new era of contending.</p>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/1/25/22898076/2021-season-in-review-salvador-perezJackson Bracken