Royals Review: All Posts by Ryan Heffernon"A dim view of humanity" -Lee Judgehttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/29790/royalsreview.gif2024-03-28T18:44:00-04:00https://www.royalsreview.com/authors/ryan-heffernon/rss2024-03-28T18:44:00-04:002024-03-28T18:44:00-04:00Royals offense struggles against Lopez in 4-1 Opening Day loss to Twins
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<figcaption>Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Positively, Cole Ragans struck out nine, a Royals Opening Day record</p> <p id="8HiLzx">Kansas City’s excitement levels headed into today’s Opening Day festivities were as high as they had been since 2017. The roster featured several newcomers, including much-needed help in the starting rotation and bullpen, as well as the return of Vinnie Pasquantino. </p>
<p id="UxKzsc">Facing a Twins team favored to win a weak AL Central, though, we got a little taste of what we all knew. Minnesota might not be the strongest division favorite, but they are were a division winner last season for a reason. Despite a leadoff homer from Maikel Garcia and an Opening Day record nine strikeouts from Cole Ragans, Kansas City’s offense struggled against Twins starter Jorge Lopez, falling 2-1 on a beautiful Thursday afternoon. </p>
<p id="oFd9RC">The loss marks the 2nd consecutive season that Kansas City’s offense struggled against Lopez on Opening Day, with the offense failing to score a run off the right-hander in last year’s contest. </p>
<p id="kZoIGR">The American League Central rivals exchanged first-inning home runs to get the 2024 season off to a quick start. </p>
<p id="tGeWPf">Ragans started his day off quickly, needing just three pitches to retire Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers. He got up 0-2 on Royce Lewis sent a 98 MPH fastball into the fountains in left-center field, giving the Twins an early 1-0 lead. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Royce Lewis with the first Twins HR this year... because of course <a href="https://t.co/QH5ihNkPNk">pic.twitter.com/QH5ihNkPNk</a></p>— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) <a href="https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1773444145887002890?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="nkpnz3">Kansas City got the run right back with a leadoff homer from Maikel Garcia, tying the game at 1-1. The homer was just the 5th of Garcia’s career and his 2nd career leadoff homer. </p>
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<p lang="es" dir="ltr">Maikel Garcia, leadoff mash! <a href="https://t.co/Bt9uJ1VeWV">pic.twitter.com/Bt9uJ1VeWV</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1773446240790892944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="zGKQG6">Aside from the homer, the Royals struggled against Twins starter Pablo Lopez on Opening Day for the 2nd straight season. Kansas City’s offense wasted a leadoff from MJ Melendez and only managed two further base runners against the Cy Young candidate - a bloop double from Bobby Witt Jr and a swinging bunt from Adam Frazier. </p>
<p id="8EQNCh">Lopez ended his afternoon after giving up just four hits and walking zero Royals across 7.0 innings of work. He needed just 84 pitches and retired the last eight batters he faced. </p>
<p id="4woVcp">Meanwhile, Ragans labored despite looking sharp. After striking out the side in the 2nd, Ragans found trouble in the 3rd via two bloop singles that put runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs. Carlos Correa made him pay, doubling down the left-field line to put Minnesota up 2-1. It likely would have been 3-1 had Lewis not come around 2nd base awkwardly, limping to 3rd base and forcing his early exit. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Royce Lewis is hurt, cancel the season <a href="https://t.co/708iBLsAcR">pic.twitter.com/708iBLsAcR</a></p>— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) <a href="https://twitter.com/cjzero/status/1773452542711648337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="KUC9Rk">Following his 3rd inning jam, Ragans mostly cruised the rest of the way. He worked his final three innings cleanly, allowing just two more baserunners, and ending his first Opening Day start with a Royals Opening Day record nine strikeouts. Ragans gave up five hits and walked two Twins in 6.0 innings, showing the electric stuff fans became accustomed to last summer.</p>
<p id="cuUSTj">After a clean 7th from Nick Anderson, Angel Zerpa found himself in some 8th inning trouble, surrendering back-to-back singles to open the frame. However, Zerpa got out of the jam with two backward strikeouts to prevent any insurance for Minnesota.</p>
<p id="rfIxvK">Chris Stratton wasn’t as lucky in the 9th. A single, walk, and groundout put runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. Stratton got down 3-1 to Edouard Julien before a bizarre wild pitch bounced off home plate umpire Laz Diaz and allowed a run to score, giving Minnesota a 3-1 lead. It sounded as though the pitch hit Julien, but the sound came from the ball hitting Diaz. Correa followed with an infield single to bring in another run, giving the Twins a 4-1 lead.</p>
<p id="BZU3FM">Griffin Jax shut Kansas City down in the 9th to complete the loss.</p>
<p id="NjCS1q"><em>Up Next: </em>Royals v. Twins, Saturday, March 30, 3:10 PM CDT, Kauffman Stadium. RHP Seth Lugo (0-0, -.— ERA) v. RHP Joe Ryan (0-0, -.— ERA)</p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/28/24114823/royals-offense-struggles-against-lopez-in-4-1-opening-day-loss-to-twinsRyan Heffernon2024-03-28T15:30:00-04:002024-03-28T15:30:00-04:00Opening Day: Royals v. Twins
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<figcaption>Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Cole Ragans gets his first Opening Day start</p> <p id="OPgvdg">2023 was miserable for Royals fans. Sandwiched between back-to-back championships across the parking lot, the other tenant of Truman Sports Complex lost 106 games, tying a franchise record. It was the third 100-loss season in five seasons, not including 2020. </p>
<p id="I1FiY0">General Manager J.J. Picollo responded by being <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/1/13/24031464/a-comprehensive-guide-to-the-royals-free-agent-acquisitions">as active as a Royals GM has ever been in free agency</a>, adding Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Hunter Renfroe along with overhauling a miserable bullpen. He spent over $110 million, Kansas City’s most since 2016, and the payroll is up $25 million in 2024. Still, outside onlookers view the Royals as <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F5365090%2F2024%2F03%2F25%2Fmlb-offseason-grades-2024-season%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.royalsreview.com%2F2024%2F3%2F28%2F24113551%2Fopening-day-royals-v-twins" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">a still-rebuilding team</a>, and it’s hard to blame them. </p>
<p id="qsuKCm">The core is exciting. It has a budding superstar with upside Kansas City hasn’t seen since George Brett in Bobby Witt Jr. That statement isn’t all that hyperbolic, either. It has a diamond-in-the-rough ace in Cole Ragans who not only looks to be Picollo’s biggest slam dunk to date but is <a href="https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/cy-young/">getting some action as an AL Cy Young candidate</a>. And it has Vinnie Pasquantino, a high-floor hitter with an upside to be one of the better Royals’ hitters of the 21st century, an admittedly low bar to clear. </p>
<p id="gogjCt">Still, the rest of the core – Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez, Michael Massey, Nelson Velasquez, Nick Pratto (eventually), and an aging Salvador Perez – doesn’t look ready to win. That may be true, but like it or not, Kansas City is trying to win games this year, and their active offseason brought expectations with it. </p>
<p id="PQGMiY">They are reasonable expectations, sure, but Fangraphs projected standings for 2024 have the Royals <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">as a 76-win team</a>. Vegas has Kansas City’s over/under set at 73.5. Nothing suggests the Royals could compete in an underwhelming AL Central, but even an underperforming 70-win season would be a 14-win improvement. Kansas City hasn’t seen a change in wins that dramatic since 2013. </p>
<p id="v57N53">The Royals may just be the odds-on favorite to be Major League Baseball’s most improved team, and that’s not just fanspeak. When asked which team is poised to surprise people in 2024, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/world-baseball-classic/news/mlb-players-name-the-most-surprising-team-of-2024?sf99958333=1">the Royals were the most popular answer among MLB players</a>. MLB.com writers included Kansas City <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-teams-set-to-make-biggest-improvement-in-2024">among its seven most likely teams</a> to see their win totals jump by double digits. </p>
<p id="fFMlrW">The Royals still look far from a legitimate competitor, but they should be a much better team in 2024 than in 2023. And in a weak division, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that this team plays meaningful games in September. Vinnie Pasquantino <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/vinnie-pasquantino-seeks-2024-bounce-back">is back after missing most of last season</a> with a torn right labrum. Bobby Witt Jr <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/2/9/24063714/a-deeper-dive-into-bobby-witt-jr-s-shiny-new-contract#:~:text=The%20extension%20pushes%20significantly%20more,have%20likely%20earned%20in%20arbitration.">signed a monster 11-year extension</a> in the offseason. </p>
<p id="oMODzM">Opening Day is more exciting than it has been since 2017. And while much of that revolves around guys like Vinnie or Bobby or the active offseason, a surprising source of excitement is today’s starting pitcher. </p>
<p id="7c72ST">Kansas City’s road to an improved pitching staff actually started last summer, when Picollo dealt Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers for the oft-injured Cole Ragans. The 26-year-old had made nine starts for Texas in two seasons, posting an ERA of 5.32 in 26 appearances. In 2022, his average fastball sat at a tick over 92 MPH. With the Royals, that number jumped to 96.7 MPH after sitting at 96.3 with the Rangers, tied for second among all left-handed starters. </p>
<p id="lgudgZ">Among 175 pitchers that threw at least 300 four-seamers in 2022-23, nobody had a bigger jump than Ragans’ 4.4 MPH improvement. In fact, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/how-cole-ragans-became-budding-ace-for-royals">he nearly doubled</a> his teammate Carlos Hernandez’s 2.3 MPH improvement, the next closest jump. Ragans has had two Tommy John surgeries, so health will be a concern. But he currently has the 8th-best American League Cy Young odds, an outcome even the most optimistic onlooker could not have envisioned. </p>
<p id="IbeGPr">He’ll have his hands full, not just with the Twins offense, but the opposing starter. Pablo Lopez gets his second consecutive Opening Day start and is arguably the favorite to win the AL Cy Young along with Corbin Burnes. </p>
<p id="mZ0kO9">Kansas City opens with a roster that <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/22/24109046/nick-pratto-drew-waters-austin-nola-assigned-to-minors">doesn’t include Nick Pratto or Drew Waters</a>. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Our 26 to open up '24. <a href="https://t.co/VubuDnGc2g">pic.twitter.com/VubuDnGc2g</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1773359664664551909?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="kI3hIo">It also includes Nick Loftin thanks to Michael Massey’s lower back strain. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">We have made the following roster moves: <a href="https://t.co/AdxHuf84sI">pic.twitter.com/AdxHuf84sI</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1773371212053311940?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="ft6fof">The lineups are in and there aren’t many surprises on the Royals side, minus Massey’s absence. Maikel Garcia is back in the leadoff spot after taking 72 of his 114 starts at leadoff last season. Vinnie is finally back from his shoulder injury and The Captain hits cleanup. Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier make their Royals debuts as well. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cole Ragans heads to the mound to start our 2024 campaign! <a href="https://t.co/uZaJ0FnPb2">pic.twitter.com/uZaJ0FnPb2</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1773366666799321423?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="txo9IF">On the other side, Minnesota returns much of its 2023 AL Central champion lineup, with old friend Carlos Santana being the only significant change starting at first base. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lineup is set! Baseball <a href="https://t.co/dC8bgKpP8B">pic.twitter.com/dC8bgKpP8B</a></p>— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) <a href="https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1773366562738544802?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="pEl7GJ">Here is everything else you need to complete your Opening Day experience.</p>
<ul>
<li id="CGROIB">
<a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/26/24112482/royals-workout-opening-day-gates-times-bobblehead">What to know about 2024 Royals Opening Day</a> by Max Rieper</li>
<li id="Xl3vLS">
<a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/28/24114186/royals-rundown-opening-day-extravaganza-with-max-rieper">Royals Rundown: Opening Day Extravaganza, with Max Rieper</a> by Jacob-Milham</li>
<li id="mxsAu9">
<a href="https://royalsreview.com/2024/3/28/24113736/royals-review-roundtable-the-2024-season">Royals Review Roundtable: The 2024 Season</a> featuring Rieper, Jacob-Milham, Matthew LaMar, and Jeremy Greco</li>
<li id="TeVoOh">
<a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/27/24110801/2024-royals-season-preview-its-time-to-win">2024 Royals Season Preview: It’s time to win</a> by Rieper</li>
<li id="NeMGsy">
<a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/22/24108677/royals-television-tv-streaming-bally-amazon">How to watch the royals on TV and streaming in 2024</a> by Rieper</li>
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<p id="ICn8ec">Happy Opening Day!</p>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/28/24113551/opening-day-royals-v-twinsRyan Heffernon2024-03-21T15:45:00-04:002024-03-21T15:45:00-04:00Spring Training Games XXV and XXVI
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<img alt="Chicago Cubs v Kansas City Royals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y5kjYz4MeEo6S2vw3y1JGlHeyOE=/1x0:5163x3441/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73223993/2062116986.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Aaron Doster/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A split squad it is</p> <p id="wuJRqx">As we approach April, the Royals' daily lineup starts to look less foggy. Last night’s lineup looked an awful lot like a potential Opening Day lineup, with a nudge or two still to be made. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Back in Surprise tonight with Brady on the bump! <a href="https://t.co/sjaXE5KhtH">pic.twitter.com/sjaXE5KhtH</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1770546294630518811?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2024</a>
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<p id="xkrPpX">And the late-night contest was fruitful. Vinnie Pasquantino had two hits and four RBI, Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr, and Salvador Perez each added an RBI of their own, and Kale Emshoff got his first hit of the spring in a game-tying home run.</p>
<p id="pQDe2P">The game did reveal some locker room tension between Bob and Vinnie, though. Something to keep an eye on.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vinnie is just trying to talk about the intricacy of hitting, but Bobby keeps throwing stuff at him: "There are two people in Kansas City I don't think you're allowed to fight — Patrick Mahomes and Bobby Witt Jr. ... But I'll do it on live TV right now if I have to." <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Royals</a> <a href="https://t.co/Ir4FlVNhlD">pic.twitter.com/Ir4FlVNhlD</a></p>— Bally Sports Kansas City (@BallySportsKC) <a href="https://twitter.com/BallySportsKC/status/1770645312148807762?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2024</a>
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<p id="Nd6T30">Royals’ starter Brady Singer struggled, giving up seven runs in a tick under five innings of work, but Will Smith, James McArthur, and Angel Zerpa each worked an inning of scoreless ball. </p>
<p id="a5JsWw">Today, the squad will be split, with both games starting at 3:05 PM CDT. Game One will be played at Goodyear Ballpark, with Kansas City facing the Guardians. </p>
<p id="4njHTm">Alec Marsh makes his 6th appearance and 2nd start looking to continue a strong spring. The right-hander has given up just three runs in 14 innings of work and struck out 17 in the process. He competed with Jordan Lyles, today’s Game Two starter, for the 5th starter role, which Marsh <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/21/24107864/alec-marsh-makes-the-rotation-jordan-lyles-to-the-pen">reportedly won today</a>. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Alec Marsh is in the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Royals</a> rotation, manager Matt Quatraro makes official. Jordan Lyles will begin the season in the bullpen.</p>— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) <a href="https://twitter.com/anne__rogers/status/1770855241501544504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2024</a>
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<p id="QIKg1S">Back at Surprise Stadium, Jordan Lyles is back on the mound after his demotion to the bullpen, facing the White Sox. Here are the Royals lineups for both games.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">One more split squad of the spring! <a href="https://t.co/wrpfroTCf7">pic.twitter.com/wrpfroTCf7</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1770834580678861011?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2024</a>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/21/24107717/spring-training-games-xxv-and-xxviRyan Heffernon2024-03-18T10:00:00-04:002024-03-18T10:00:00-04:00What are reasonable expectations for the Royals?
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<img alt="2024 San Diego Padres Spring Training" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xcP8r2PAwtkIX4AXSl22Dhfp0kc=/4x0:5392x3592/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73215061/2036335095.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>They look like a Major League team this year. Is that enough?</p> <p id="8RZzuf">Kansas City sports fans are in an interesting spot right now. The gap between the city’s best professional sports team and its worst team may be wider than any other city in the history of American professional sports. The Chiefs are the only NFL team that is Super Bowl or bust every season. It would be <em>unreasonable </em>to expect less at this point. That is their measurement. The Royals, on the other hand, look like they have an actual Major League roster for the first time in years and that feels like a genuine win for the city. The gap is wide. </p>
<p id="rABqwA">It’s interesting to see a city that has watched its football team win three Super Bowls in five seasons and be among the league’s final four teams in six consecutive seasons get excited about signing Seth Lugo. But here we are. </p>
<p id="ElW0a2">The question of expectations, therefore, is different for the Royals. That goes without saying, but clarifying those expectations seems important. Currently, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">Fangraphs projects 76 wins for the Royals</a>. The team has made legitimate improvements to get there. After losing a franchise record-tying 106 games last season thanks to a truly horrific pitching staff, Kansas City went out and signed Lugo and Michael Wacha in an attempt to right the ship. They signed Bobby Witt Jr to a <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/2/9/24063714/a-deeper-dive-into-bobby-witt-jr-s-shiny-new-contract">massive 11-year, $288 million contract</a> that is completely unprecedented for the franchise. There are legitimate reasons for hope. But what should we expect? Here are three reasonable expectations for the season</p>
<h2 id="M0H8S9">A pitching staff employing major leaguers</h2>
<p id="k1PElO">Since 2018, the Diamondbacks are the only franchise with <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&startdate=&enddate=&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&month=0&season1=2018&season=2022&pagenum=1">less fWAR from their pitchers</a> than the Royals. Their 4.83 ERA ranks 28th while their xFIP ranks 29th. During that time, Carlos Hernandez, Ian Kennedy, Jorge Lopez, and Glenn Sparkman, among others, have each gotten more than 20 starts. Scott Barlow leads the way with 239 games pitched during that stretch, but guys like Tim Hill, Kennedy, Kyle Zimmer, Jake Brentz, and Wily Peralta have appeared in at least 75 games. I’m sure all of those players are nice enough, but their performance on the field has left much to the imagination.</p>
<p id="ylofZ2">Of the 30 Royals pitchers with the most appearances since 2018, nine of them have an ERA north of 5.00. That’s 30 percent! Sixteen have an ERA over 4.50. That’s 53 percent! ERA is a sloppy stat, so let’s use fWAR. Nineteen have failed to collect at least 1 fWAR. According to Fangraphs, these players are “scrubs,” or put a nicer way, replacement-level players. In other words, since the Royals got bad again, they have given a lot of guys who weren’t performing at a Major League level a lot of innings. </p>
<p id="daOQEn">The Kansas City staff won’t blow anybody’s doors off this season, but they shouldn’t do <em>that. </em>They have Cole Ragans coming back, who was surprisingly good last season, along with Brady Singer, the only pitcher of the much-hyped 2018 draft class to have any legitimate production. In addition, they added Lugo and Michael Wacha to the rotation, two guys that, again, won’t blow the doors off, but also shouldn’t be scrubs.</p>
<p id="mDjujo">They overhauled the bullpen, adding Will Smith, John Schreiber, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson, who all bring resumes of not being terrible. For the first time in years, we can expect Royals pitchers to theoretically pitch like Major Leaguers and with a <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielding_Team&startYear=2023&endYear=2023&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=hide">defense that finished fourth in Outs Above Average</a>, they might even produce like Major Leaguers. </p>
<h2 id="cRQmZC">A rebounding offense</h2>
<p id="BYZGkW">The offense is the tricky one to project. The pitching staff drew most of the ire from fans, but the offense wasn’t much better, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts">ranking 24th in fWAR</a>. Keep in mind that Bobby Witt Jr. produced half of that fWAR and no other player was worth even 2 fWAR. To make matters worse, only two teams finished with a lower wRC+ than Kansas City. While the fWAR numbers weren’t great, they were boosted by that defense that finished fourth in OAA last season. The offense dragged them down. </p>
<p id="bwYjui">While the front office was very active in bringing in help for the pitching staff, they were less active on offense. Aside from <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/hunter-renfroe-deal-with-royals">signing Hunter Renfroe to a one-year deal</a>, every other projected starter is a returning player. With that said, there is still hope for a rebound. For starters, Renfroe is like Lugo and Wacha in the sense that he isn’t necessarily moving any needles, but he should be a league-average to slightly above-league-average bat.</p>
<p id="JN8mQJ">Further, they will get Vinnie Pasquantino back, a proven hitter with a high floor. ZiPS projects him to be a 123 wRC+ hitter with upside. A healthy Vinnie is a huge boost for the Royals offense. Salvy had a down year last season and is aging, but it isn’t unreasonable to see him bounce back after a down season last year. </p>
<p id="YWIOzQ">What Kansas City needs to see happen is a group of hitters – MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Maikel Garcia, and Nelson Velazquez – take a step forward. Each has shown flashes, and the offense should improve by positive regression either way, but if that group can take even moderate steps, the offense could take a step in the right direction.</p>
<h2 id="eqWzvs">A direction for the franchise</h2>
<p id="gKB7YY">While this might be the most unreasonable of expectations, I think a full season of healthy performances from many of these players would help Kansas City establish a direction. Injuries have prevented the Royals from evaluating guys like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and even Vinnie Pasquantino. And for guys like Melendez, Pratto, Michael Massey, and Nick Pratto, we are several years into an experiment that hasn’t yielded fruit. In an ideal world, the Royals win around 75 games and are at least watchable. </p>
<p id="G1HYAj">We get to watch Bobby Witt do Bobby Witt things and enjoy the fun of Salvy and Vinny. But at the end of this year, the front office should have more than enough sample size to make decisions on a bunch of youngish players like Lynch, Melendez, Pratto, and Bubic among others. I say this might be unreasonable because we probably already have the necessary sample size. But with another year under their belts, we should at least have an idea of what needs to happen next. </p>
<p id="5ZfEtL">Considering the Royals have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, what happens next might not be fun, but the organization has lacked direction for far too long. The moves they made this offseason were more decisive in solving real problems faced by the Major League club, and hopefully that decisiveness will continue after 2024. </p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/18/24101948/what-are-reasonable-expectations-for-the-royalsRyan Heffernon2024-03-14T15:45:00-04:002024-03-14T15:45:00-04:00Spring Training Game XIX
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<img alt="2024 San Diego Padres Spring Training" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ULl5ydhDRR8zmGdBM7_p2hIgfjw=/0x0:8256x5504/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73207585/2036335058.0.jpg" />
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<p>Michael Wacha is on the bump</p> <p id="RvIcOE">The Royals’ bats are hot. Six Royals enter today’s game with OPS’ over 1.000, led by Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr, who both have three homers so far. </p>
<p id="ZCxckJ">Salvy gets the day off today with Freddy Fermin behind the plate. </p>
<p id="sCumhF">Here are the lineups for today’s game against the defending National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Michael Wacha heads to the mound in Scottsdale as we take on the Diamondbacks. <a href="https://t.co/Z5EpAUFDr1">pic.twitter.com/Z5EpAUFDr1</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1768296485702041887?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2024</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Today's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dbacks?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Dbacks</a> lineup vs. the Royals LIVE on <a href="https://t.co/epBmrbYHsx">https://t.co/epBmrbYHsx</a>:<br><br>Carroll | RF<br>Marte | 2B<br>Gurriel | LF<br>Walker | 1B<br>Suárez | 3B<br>Thomas | CF<br>Rivera | SS<br>Smith | DH<br>Barnhart | C<br>---<br>Henry | P <a href="https://t.co/MPRQdR5uMT">pic.twitter.com/MPRQdR5uMT</a></p>— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dbacks/status/1768316614813077789?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2024</a>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/14/24100736/spring-training-game-xixRyan Heffernon2024-03-07T14:45:00-05:002024-03-07T14:45:00-05:00Spring Training Game XIII: Royals at Rockies
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<img alt="Kansas City Royals Photo Day" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/saxAbWH5f1kF80dfXGq-5j6jTKM=/0x0:4798x3199/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73189885/2031702632.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Cole Ragans is back on the mound</p> <p id="RTfJUJ">Another day, another Spring Training game. The chase for the Cactus League Championship continues for the 9-4 Royals, just a game behind the Dodgers. They take on a 8-4 Rockies team that is hot on their heals, just a half-game back. </p>
<p id="uIoSlm">This is March (or something).</p>
<p id="FuNpo5">Salvador Perez gets the day off after hitting an absolute missile of a home run yesterday.</p>
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<p lang="es" dir="ltr">Salvador Perez - Kansas City Royals (2)* <a href="https://t.co/o4U2bwJ5vt">pic.twitter.com/o4U2bwJ5vt</a></p>— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBHRVideos/status/1765589991286091925?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2024</a>
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<p id="MDpzq2">Michael Massey got a similar treatment, getting the day off after homering and doubling yesterday </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Smashing day at the plate for Mass. <a href="https://t.co/8M5St8MMMF">pic.twitter.com/8M5St8MMMF</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1765506966183387468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2024</a>
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<p id="uMWjEE">Here are your lineups for today’s matchup. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cole Ragans is back on the bump as we head to Scottsdale to take on the Rockies. <a href="https://t.co/qyGOf3oRGx">pic.twitter.com/qyGOf3oRGx</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1765759261039083891?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2024</a>
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<p id="vJ6Wig"><em><strong>Up Next: </strong></em>Royals at Rangers, Friday, March 8, Surprise Stadium, 2:05 PM CDT. RHP Seth Lugo (1-0, 10.38 ERA) v. Jon Gray (1-0, 0.00 ERA)</p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/3/7/24093448/spring-training-game-xiii-royals-at-rockiesRyan Heffernon2024-02-29T14:45:00-05:002024-02-29T14:45:00-05:00Spring Training Game VIII: Royals at White Sox
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<img alt="Kansas City Royals Photo Day" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YVQQdfAtJJsnBiwLk-XUPbHBWCQ=/0x0:4165x2777/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73173968/2031188170.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Jordan Lyles Era continues</p> <p id="Qs8O6p">Spring Training games are back and they are beautiful. Especially Royals games. Because the back of our jerseys look normal.</p>
<p id="5TYx3c">Kansas City has some cold bats they want to get revved up today. Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Nelson Velazquez are a combined 1-22 entering today’s matchup with the White Sox. They’ll face a lineup that is 33% ex-Royals, as Andrew Benintendi, Mike Moustakas, and Martin Madonado all get the start today for a Chicago split squad. </p>
<p id="JB9c5o">Jordan Lyles makes his first appearance of the spring, and we don’t need to say much more about that one. </p>
<p id="lRcFPc">Here are you lineups for this afternoon:</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here's how we're lining up behind Jordan Lyles as we take on the White Sox this afternoon in Glendale. <a href="https://t.co/CY3mSfOxyr">pic.twitter.com/CY3mSfOxyr</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1763212388978090366?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 29, 2024</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Let's play ✌️ <a href="https://t.co/oWcNJru4bO">pic.twitter.com/oWcNJru4bO</a></p>— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) <a href="https://twitter.com/whitesox/status/1763225331111268681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 29, 2024</a>
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<p id="v6Mu0q"><em><strong>Up Next: </strong></em>Royals v. Athletics, Friday, March 1, 2:05 PM CDT, Surprise Stadium. LHP Cole Ragans (0-0, 0.00 ERA) v. LHP Alex Wood (0-0, -.— ERA)</p>
https://www.royalsreview.com/2024/2/29/24086512/spring-training-game-viii-royals-at-white-soxRyan Heffernon2023-12-11T10:00:00-05:002023-12-11T10:00:00-05:00The Curious Case of MJ Melendez
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<img alt="Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rPiO6yhVtmOo5FZuBGlZCauYSZw=/0x0:5702x3801/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72951822/1691410301.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The catcher-turned-outfielder is entering make-or-break territory</p> <p id="DRNm8z">If we’re being honest, we don’t know what the Royals are doing. Rumor has it that they are doing things differently than the previous regime. But they have been giving mixed signals.</p>
<p id="u9wRDX">We’re fresh off the Winter Meetings, where general manager J.J. Picollo said the team is looking to spend around <a href="https://t.co/pd1mipMJo6">$30 million this offseason</a> if the right players are there. He also said MJ Melendez would focus on the outfield.</p>
<blockquote><p id="FVf1I0">The way we’re set up right now with Salvy and Freddy, we don’t need to put that work on MJ. If something happened to where we traded one of those guys, then we would look at it again, because it’s not that he can’t do it, it’s just we don’t need him to do it. And we’re not looking to trade Salvy and Freddy.</p></blockquote>
<p id="x8vQ6a">This one is tricky, but my first thought when I read this was black and white - it’s time to trade MJ Melendez. Now, that was a bit rash, so I formulated a question: Should the Royals trade MJ Melendez? Not quite as rash, but a bit premature. So let’s settle on this: What the heck should the Royals do with MJ Melendez? There are several factors, but here are a few of note. </p>
<h2 id="3zJ8Yo">Is Salvador Perez in Kansas City for the long haul?</h2>
<p id="s67bbh">Salvador Perez is one of the most loyal athletes in the sport and has never expressed a desire to leave Kansas City. However, nearly 10 years removed from the World Series and stuck on a hapless team that has lost 100 games in three of its last six seasons, he isn’t unwilling to leave either. Jon Heyman <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2023/8/1/23816512/salvador-perez-contender-trade-royals">reported this last season</a>. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Salvador Perez would consider waiving his no-trade for the right contender. At different points, the Marlins and Padres checked on Perez, and also the White Sox according to <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Joelsherman1</a></p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1686477324160565249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 1, 2023</a>
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<p id="1unDEa">One potential landing spot that made sense was Miami. Salvy lives in Florida, and insider Jayson Stark reported that he was “particularly open” to a trade to Miami. However, Stark’s sources quickly put an end to that.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Royals and Marlins talked again today about a deal to send Salvador Perez to Miami.<br><br>But one source reports: "That's not happening."<br><br>Perez lives in Fla. and was open to a deal in Miami, but the teams could never agree on what KC would get back.</p>— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/1686453192224030720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 1, 2023</a>
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<p id="1ROtZ6">The trade never happened, and here we are. However, this is the first time in Salvy’s career that he’s entered the offseason with trade rumors swirling. The Royals have shut these down quickly, as seen in Picollo’s latest comments. </p>
<p id="td28DT">As Picollo said, if Salvy is in Kansas City (and even Freddy Fermin, to be frank), Melendez will be in the outfield. Perez could theoretically get more time at DH, as he has in the past, but the emergence of Fermin has further cemented Melendez’s fate out from behind home plate. So, it would appear that Melendez’s days as a catcher in Kansas City are likely over. </p>
<h2 id="RjujwT">Can Melendez be a viable player anywhere other than catcher?</h2>
<p id="puixvW">I should note here that Melendez has <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mj-melendez-669004?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb">never been a good defender</a> behind the plate as a Major Leaguer. He was in the first or second percentile in Blocks Above Average and framing metrics in 2022. However as a prospect, he was a viable defender with upside behind the plate. He had an average pop time in 2022, along with an above-average caught-stealing rate. </p>
<p id="hhXI6k">Salvy may not be great evidence for this, but framing and blocking are fixable things relatively speaking – at least compared to arm strength. This is all to say that as bad as Melendez was behind the plate as a rookie, he was as bad, if not worse as an outfielder. He <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2023&endYear=2023&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=of&roles=&viz=show&sort=5&sortDir=asc">logged -12 Outs Above Average</a>, was one of the worst outfielders in the league at <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outfield_jump">getting good jumps</a>, and ranked dead last among qualified outfielders in <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outfield_jump">error runs above average</a>. </p>
<p id="5lyXuH">The calculus here is pretty simple. In 2023, outfielders across the league <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Css&type=8&month=43">hit at a 103 wRC+ clip</a>. Catchers, on the other hand, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Css&type=8&month=35">hit at a 90 wRC+ clip</a>. MJ finished the year with a 92 wRC+. Now, to be fair to MJ, he was also <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2023/4/12/23680352/mj-melendez-is-the-unluckiest-hitter-alive-when-he-makes-contact">the unluckiest hitter alive</a> to start the season and put together a 124 wRC+ in the second half.</p>
<p id="dWsuvG">But as the theory goes, MJ has to hit more to be of any value in the outfield. </p>
<h2 id="3aY2Ip">Let’s be more specific: Can MJ Melendez be a viable outfielder?</h2>
<p id="uqHV2x">This is the question that prompted my original thought. I like Melendez a lot as a fan. He’s a fun and exciting player. But is he going to hit enough to stick in the outfield? </p>
<p id="6GTQ3L">In 2023, MJ ranked in the 90th percentile in arm strength and was top 20 in arm value. He has slightly above-average sprint speed, so there is no reason to think that MJ couldn’t become a viable outfielder. After all, Alex Gordon became an all-world outfielder after coming up as a third baseman. As I noted earlier, you can teach angles and footwork in a way that you can’t teach physical tools like arm strength. In that sense, MJ has a head start. </p>
<p id="Sh3GwH">I think MJ’s errors are a good example of this. We all remember Alex letting that fly ball sail over his head in right field at Yankee Stadium during his first cup of coffee in the outfield. Errors are correctable. However, his teammate Edward Olivares is a great example of what MJ is facing. </p>
<p id="rYthRR">Olivares finished third on the Royals with a 105 wRC+, yet finished the season as a 0.4 fWAR player thanks to cataclysmic defense in right field. And similar to Melendez, Olivares has a 90th percentile arm. Melendez doesn’t have to be exceptional at the plate or in the outfield to be a viable starter. But if he isn’t going to be well above average at one, he cannot be one of the worst in the league at the other. </p>
<h2 id="RLaiZ1">What is the breaking point?</h2>
<p id="hnTmAz">This is a bit of a make-or-break season for MJ. He knows he’s an outfielder in 2024 and has had an entire offseason to remedy some of the problems he had in 2023. To be fair to him, he was learning on the fly at the big-league level, which is not easy. </p>
<p id="gtwwYr">My initial instinct to trade him was overstepping. This is the same player who hit 41 homers between AA and AAA just three years ago and whose makeup translates well to the modern game. Even with his walk rate dropping significantly in 2023, his 10.3% clip was the 7th best season of the Dayton Moore/Picollo era. Only two Royals with at least 1000 plate appearances have a higher rate in the post-strike era than Melendez’s 11.3%. </p>
<p id="gRnJT4">Trading him would be selling too low on a guy that doesn’t have much value at the moment, for a team that doesn’t have anything better to do than give him 600 plate appearances. But this year will be our first look at whether Melendez can be a full-time outfielder. He posted a 1.0 fWAR in the 2nd half, which is a ~2.5 fWAR pace over 162 games. That required a 124 wRC+ thanks to his gloomy -5.8 defensive runs above average. </p>
<p id="g5yshd">The biggest difference between that breakout second half and the first half of the season, or even his rookie season? The power. MJ draws his walks, but the power comes in spurts. He hit 18 homers his rookie season, but slugged under .400. In the second half of the season, he slugged at a near .500 clip.</p>
<p id="lS2ufm">I started this writing process believing the Royals should trade Melendez because he won’t ever be a viable outfielder. I’ll end it with the belief that he can be if that power can come around. </p>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2023/12/11/23989819/the-curious-case-of-mj-melendezRyan Heffernon2023-12-01T10:00:00-05:002023-12-01T10:00:00-05:00Season in Review: Jordan Lyles
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<img alt="New York Yankees v Kansas City Royals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y63QecUJ4GiSB1rzWnZe4LHc11k=/0x0:5387x3591/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72920255/1708839137.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Do we have to? </p> <p id="Ndk6Vt">It’s important for me to start this piece off by saying that I am generally not anti-stop gap. I have vocally defended guys like Michael A. Taylor, who receive the ire of fans when their real anger is at the organization. Taylor was a fine player for the money he received and did the job he was asked to do. That Taylor was asked to do that job is the organization’s fault, not his. </p>
<p id="ebtx27">Jordan Lyles is that kind of stop-gap player. The Royals entered the 2022 offseason with three young arms in Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic potentially in the rotation, along with Zack Greinke. As the saying goes, you can’t get enough starting pitching. I do have three quick reservations about Lyles and why he is not the kind of stop-gap I approve. </p>
<ol>
<li id="fS5Nyq">The Royals were <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&stats=sta&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&pagenum=1">middle-of-the-pack in innings</a> from starters in 2022 and had a reasonable number of arms to distribute innings already. “Yes, but injuries happen!” you might say, and you would be right, as both Bubic and Lynch missed significant time to injury. Okay, so...</li>
<li id="jxh0WC">Jordan Lyles is more expensive than other stop-gaps. Michael Lorenzen, Zach Davies, and even Martin Perez all signed for cheaper when they signed deals in recent years. “Yes, but it’s still slim pickings at that price and there aren’t a lot of young, viable starters in that range!” you might say. Yes, you are right. But...</li>
<li id="ex7v9D">Jordan Lyles has a long history of being a very bad pitcher. </li>
</ol>
<p id="EKf1yV">I am not anti-stop-gap, but I am anti-paying a stop-game more than the average stop-gap gap knowing that he is likely not a viable starter. So with that out of the way, let’s look at Lyles’ 2023 season!</p>
<h2 id="euI27w">It wasn’t good</h2>
<p id="YCn6g1">I have just one point for us today. There’s no sugarcoating it. Lyles may have been the worst starting pitcher in baseball. If the Royals wanted to eat innings, which is likely the case, then he did his job. He led Kansas City starters with 177.2 innings pitched. However, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=1&qual=170&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2023&sortcol=21&sortdir=asc&pagenum=1">among pitchers with at least 170 innings pitched</a>, Lyles finished 37/37 in fWAR, 37/37 in ERA, 37/37 in FIP, 37/37 in xFIP, and 35/37 in xERA.</p>
<p id="1V1Dc9">Lyles was so bad that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jun/27/jordan-lyles-kansas-city-royals-mlb-baseball-era-losses">The Guardian wrote about him</a>. </p>
<p id="6MQRwQ">Only two pitchers struck out batters at a worse rate and he stranded runners at a lower percentage than any pitcher in the league by 10%. To give context, the gap between Lyles’ 37th ranked 56.3 LOB% and Aaron Nola’s 36th ranked 66.4% is greater than the gap between Nola and the 11th ranked Dean Kremer. </p>
<p id="JxVeWK">Greater context. Since 2000, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=1&month=0&ind=1&qual=170&sortcol=13&sortdir=asc&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2000&season=2023">there have been 1581 instances of a pitcher throwing at least 170 innings</a>. Lyles’ 56.3 LOB% ranks 1581. There has not been a pitcher worse at stranding runners since the turn of the millennium than Lyles was in 2023. </p>
<p id="szUW2J">There are two ways to interpret this number. </p>
<p id="nB7S0q">The first is with the glass half full. Across his last two full seasons, that number sat at around 74%. Lyles surrendered a .307 wOBA with the bases empty, with hitters slashing .230/.277/.444. Not special, but far better than the combined .434 wOBA with men on base and hitters slashing .328/.387/.673. Regression to the mean will surely happen and he should be better in 2024. The lowest possible bar is Lyles being better than he was in 2023.</p>
<p id="BF2XTY">The second is with the glass half empty. Kansas City owes Lyles $8.5 million in 2024. They also have Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic coming back from injury, two arms they’ll want to see get innings. Zack Greinke may or may not be coming back, but the Royals are pretty desperate for a functional starting pitcher. Brady Singer has been the closest thing to that in recent years, but even he had a miserable 2023. </p>
<p id="2A2ndQ">I think the best way to interpret Lyles historic struggles is to find the middle ground. That is, he probably won’t duplicate his horror show with men on base and will likely regress to his mean of a replacement-level player. It’s <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2023/11/25/23972298/the-royals-early-off-season-moves-are-sending-mixed-signals">hard to tell what Kansas City’s long-term plan is</a> other than building a new stadium, but giving money and innings to a replacement-level starting pitcher is right up their alley. </p>
<h2 id="cl0WSy">What Is To Come In 2024</h2>
<p id="UjYCSq">That’s all to say that only Salvador Perez will make more money than Jordan Lyles in Kansas City next year. And the next closest to Lyles makes 14% of what he makes. Few teams are spending less money than the Royals next year, but 13% of the payroll going to Lyles isn’t pretty. </p>
<p id="aBmjqH">Lyles was brought in to eat innings, and if that’s his job, he can do it well. He will probably get the opportunity to do it again in 2024. We aren’t likely to see a heavy improvement, but the Royals don’t expect that either. This is one reason why Lyles is so frustrating. On one hand, it makes practical sense. Kansas City isn’t close to winning games, but they do need guys to help them complete these games. On the other hand, it’s somewhat symbolic of the Royals mindset. Let’s give 180 innings to the guy we know can’t prevent runs. </p>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2023/12/1/23964031/season-in-review-jordan-lylesRyan Heffernon2023-08-25T10:00:00-04:002023-08-25T10:00:00-04:00The breakout season of Bobby Witt Jr. explained in three stats
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<img alt="Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5bXYbsEu8836Ugpn-QSsqUMdXfA=/0x0:6946x4631/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72577683/1584899262.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Hittin’ homers while striking out less? Seems good. </p> <p id="hrbdyg">Across his first eight playing months as a major leaguer, Bobby Witt Jr. was an adequate, if not a pretty player. <a href="https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/">According to Fangraphs</a>, once a player gets into the 2-3 fWAR range, they are a solid starter compared to their peers. Since 2018, only five Royals have been worth more than 2.0 fWAR. Bobby was one of those Royals as a rookie in 2022, despite struggling on defense and being a slightly below-average hitter. </p>
<p id="WColB9">Through the first two months of this season, Witt was 50th in fWAR at 1.2. He was on pace for another >2.0 fWAR season thanks to a major defensive upgrade and 17 stolen bases, but his 83 wRC+ left much to be desired. Adequate, if not pretty good. But not what the Royals need from the biggest prospect in its 55 year history.</p>
<p id="IC4BxO">We all know what happened next. Since June, Bobby has not just showed that he is a very good player. He has flatly been one of the best players in baseball. His <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=1000&ind=0&startdate=2023-06-01&enddate=2023-08-22&season1=2023&season=2023&team=0&pageitems=30&sortcol=21&sortdir=desc&pagenum=1">3.7 fWAR since June is 6th</a> among all MLB players, thanks to his Gold Glove defense being met with a 149 wRC+. If we track since the All-Star break, it’s even better. His wRC+ kicks up to 176 and <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&season1=2023&season=2023&team=0&pageitems=30&sortcol=21&sortdir=desc&type=8&month=31&pagenum=1">no player has been more valuable</a>, although Julio Rodriguez is making a run at him.</p>
<p id="43WQ9t">For the season, his fWAR stands at 5.1 good for 6th best. For a day, he was 5th best. The Royals haven’t had a player finish top five in fWAR since George Brett in 1985. Only five Royals since 2000 have finished the season with an fWAR north of 5.0 and Bobby still over a month to go. </p>
<p id="1O70aJ">He’s having one of the best individual seasons in Royals history despite middling for the first two months. </p>
<p id="6DEb9I">So what changed? Truthfully, not a lot. </p>
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<p id="WQd24b">He was hitting the ball hard, even as he struggled. However, there are a few noteworthy improvements we’ve seen this season that help explain his sophomore jump.</p>
<h2 id="uMqeON">Strikeout Percentage </h2>
<p id="k60v7G">This is the most obvious improvement between the last three months and the first two months. Generally speaking, as home runs go up, strikeouts go up. The most Salvador Perez has struck out in his career was 2021, when he hit 48 homers. The highest strikeout rate of Eric Hosmer’s career in Kansas City came when he set a career-high in homers. This isn’t always true, of course, but it is often true. </p>
<p id="NLwLAr">Witt has always been vulnerable to the strikeout. We knew he would be coming out of high school. His hit tool was his weakest tool. And he has already hit more homers this season than he has ever hit as a professional. However, not only are his strikeouts down, but he is striking out less often than he has ever struck out at any level. </p>
<p id="qKt1RH">In his monster 2021 season across AA and AAA, Witt struck out 23% of the time. He struck out 21% of the time last. This season, with an uptick in power and with his chase rate and swing rate staying mostly the same, he’s striking out just 18% of the time. </p>
<p id="lqsnQo">That’s not just good for Bobby, but in the 75th percentile across all of baseball. His <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&sortcol=9&sortdir=desc&pagenum=4&pageitems=30">18.5% K% ranks 95 out of 138 qualified hitters</a>. As of of May 31, he was striking out 22.8% of the time, the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&startdate=2023-03-01&enddate=2023-05-31&team=0&sortcol=9&sortdir=desc&pagenum=3&pageitems=30">63rd highest percentage in baseball</a>, slightly below league average. Since June 1, only <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&startdate=2023-06-01&enddate=2023-08-24&team=0&sortcol=9&sortdir=asc&pageitems=30&pagenum=1">20 of 151 qualified hitters have struck out less</a> than him. </p>
<p id="nepbfQ">If anything, this development shows that the concerns over his bat-to-ball skills were a bit exaggerated. Either way, he’s hitting more homers and striking out way less, a somewhat rare combination.</p>
<h2 id="WTwlxw">Fastball Runs Above Average and Pitches up in the Zone</h2>
<p id="OIFTHj">Last year was noteworthy for Witt’s struggles with the fastball. He was worth -2.6 runs above average against four-seamers and a combined -7.8 against four-seamers and sinkers. </p>
<p id="JCQPVa">Through May of last season, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-witt-jr/25764/game-log?position=SS&season=&gds=2022-03-01&gde=2022-05-31&type=7">he was worth -7.6 runs against four-seamers alone</a>. That has changed this year. According to Baseball Savant, <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bobby-witt-jr-677951?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#run_value">Witt has been worth 15 more runs against fastballs this season</a> than he was last season, and 25 more runs if you include cutters and sinkers. That’s not to mention his destruction of changeups this season. </p>
<p id="OMyGya">Equally notable has been Witt’s turnaround against pitches up in the zone. The rates here are limited to pitches in the strike zone, for the sake of my own time. But the differences are arguably more extreme than his improvement against fastballs.</p>
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<p id="4nBkX0">It is apparent that Witt didn’t have a physical limitation against fastballs or pitches up in the zone, as his hands and bat speed are among the best in the league. While frustrating, those always seemed to be a fixable problems. That has proven to be true. But ultimately, neither of these things are the biggest improvement to Witt’s game. </p>
<h2 id="pn4zVt">Outs Above Average</h2>
<p id="lRgUOF"><a href="https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/how-bobby-witt-jr-went-from-being-one-of-mlbs-worst-defenders-to-among-its-best">Much was made of Witt’s defensive struggles</a> last year. However, as pointed out by David Lesky’s piece last October, there was <a href="https://insidethecrown.substack.com/p/the-complicated-debut-season-of-bobby">probably more to the story</a>, and splitting time between shortstop and third did not help. </p>
<p id="dcJMWW">Like he did cutting down his strikes, Bobby not only improved, but he made himself one of the league’s best. After ranking in the second percentile of OAA in 2022, <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bobby-witt-jr-677951?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#percent_rank">Witt ranks in the 100th percentile this season</a>. </p>
<p id="OnBMC2">He also has the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&pageitems=30&startdate=&enddate=&month=0">seventh-best defensive runs above average</a> in the all of baseball and the highest figure among shortstops. It would be good for the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&ind=1&season1=1969&season=2023&team=7&stats=fld&pos=ss">fifth-best defensive season in Royals history</a> among shortstops, with only Nicky Lopez, Tony Pena Jr (!!), and Alcides Escobar having better individual seasons. </p>
<p id="pbHFCv">His nine errors on the season are light work compared to the 19 he committed last season. In fact, he committed 16 errors at shortstop alone, seven more than he has this season and in nearly 200 fewer innings. </p>
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<p id="54K7MX">There are more numbers showing Witt’s leap from a good starter to a superstar this season. And to a degree, they all show us something we already knew. He made his Major League debut with 744 professional plate appearances to his name. He never stepped in a collegiate batter’s box. He was going to be raw. </p>
<p id="oxprUg">But in just a season, we are seeing that rawness fall away rapidly. He has taken what were weaknesses and turned them into league-best strengths in some cases. There is no guarantee that this continues, but I think most would agree Witt is here to stay. Now the question is, where is the ceiling?</p>
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https://www.royalsreview.com/2023/8/25/23841429/the-breakout-season-of-bobby-witt-jr-explained-in-three-statsRyan Heffernon